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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Ophelia Lounge
      #114778 - Sat Sep 16 2023 10:03 PM

From the Atlantic Tropical Wx 9/16 discussion:

A weak cold front is forecast to move off the SE U.S. coast early next week with new high pres building down behind it. The front may stall and linger along 27N/28N through mid-week.

It's getting to be the time to watch our front and back yard for home-grown TC. Several model runs have suggested that something may spin up over the Gulf Stream north of the Bahamas, along an old frontal boundary just offshore from east central Florida late next week. A bit early for the NHC to place a yellow patch chance in their 7-day, but if the trend continues, wouldn't be a surprise.


Advisories have begun from this non-tropical area of broad low pressure formed along the front we have been tracking, and the title is updated accordingly.

Ophelia 9/22/23
- Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Fri Sep 22 2023 06:03 PM)


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Keith B
Weather Hobbyist


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Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: TC along stalled front next week? [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114779 - Sun Sep 17 2023 06:41 AM

Yes, Brain from CH 9 Orlando made the comment on youtube about that and possible development in the crib area, within the next 10 days..

https://youtu.be/mV9UCbVANjA?si=ILFx7tY3SnUX2aPX

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: TC along stalled front next week? [Re: Keith B]
      #114780 - Sun Sep 17 2023 05:47 PM

From this afternoon's discussion:

A cold front will move off the northeastern Florida coast tonight, reaching from 31N72W to near Jupiter, Florida Tue morning, then stalling along 28N/29N through the end of the week. Winds may increase west of the stalled front by the end of the week as a tight pressure gradient develops due to a building high inland and a developing coastal trough off the Carolinas.

No mention of yet in the discussion or 7-day outlook, but if the coastal trough pulls off the coast far enough and sits for several days, a closed low could develop then feed off the un-worked over seasonal peak SST's north of the Bahamas and east of Florida. Not sure if shear and/or dry air associated with weak high pressure over the SE US will be negatives for development, but there will be plenty of moist tropical air along and south of the stalled frontal boundary.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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Keith B
Weather Hobbyist


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Posts: 57
Loc: FL, Orange County
Re: TC along stalled front next week? [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114782 - Sun Sep 17 2023 08:34 PM

2. Western Atlantic:

A non-tropical area of low pressure could form near the southeast
coast of the United States late this week. This system is forecast
to move northward or northwestward and could acquire some
subtropical characteristics if it remains offshore.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.


NHC outlook, 9/17 @ 8p

--------------------
Keith Boyer N4TRN
Orange County ARES
Asst. Emerg. Coord. (AEC) Skywarn Orange County, FL
http://www.ocares.org/


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: SIXTEEN [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114788 - Thu Sep 21 2023 12:08 PM

Recent Cyclone Phase modeling has largely forecast that SIXTEEN will straddle the line for quite a while between something that could at least casually be called a tropical cyclone, and something else. Most runs from most models have kept SIXTEEN on the asymmetric and neutral to cold core side of things (more non-tropical). However, judging from this morning's visible satellite images, those runs may be underdoing things a bit, and this is probably why NHC didn't waste any time going from 50% to PTC with watches and warnings at 11 this morning.

As a practical matter, SIXTEEN's impacts over water, along and near the coastlines, will largely be that of a tropical storm regardless of how SIXTEEN winds up technically. It is fair to call the system a developing "Tropical Cyclone-like" coastal low, and NHC does in fact make mention of this"
Quote:

"Although it is unclear as to whether the cyclone detaches from a front that is forecast to extend northeastward from the center, the guidance suggests a tropical-cyclone like core and structure when it nears the coast."




There is also a modest but real chance SIXTEEN becomes a hurricane.


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cieldumort
Moderator


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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Ophelia Lounge [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114790 - Fri Sep 22 2023 06:08 PM

Ophelia is now a very strong tropical storm/borderline hurricane. While there have still been some nearby well-defined frontal features as well as a frontal occlusion, the cyclone is arguably more tropical than not, particularly now with very deep convection building atop the LLC and a well-established warm core; much warmer than cyclone phase modeling predicted a few days ago.

There is probably enough time left for Ophelia to become a hurricane. Functionally, those within its sphere of bad weather could treat it as a wet and blustery Nor'Easter outside of the core, and a Cat 1 hurricane inside the core. Flooding and surge is a real risk.


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