IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Minor (possibly significant) beach erosion and wave run-up will be possible late this week around the time of high tide on the first full moon of fall Friday.
Coastal Hazard Message
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
213 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023
Coastal St. Johns-Coastal Flagler
...HIGH RIP CURRENT RISK REMAINS IN EFFECT THROUGH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY REMAINS IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM EDT FRIDAY...
* WHAT...For the High Rip Current Risk, dangerous rip currents. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, minor coastal flooding expected.
* WHERE...Coastal St. Johns and Coastal Flagler Counties.
* WHEN...For the High Rip Current Risk, through late Friday night. For the Coastal Flood Advisory, until 11 PM EDT Friday.
* IMPACTS...Flooding of lots, parks, and roads with only isolated road closures expected. Rip currents can sweep swimmers away from shore into deep water.
Edited by IsoFlame (Wed Sep 27 2023 07:21 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
428 PM EDT Wed Sep 27 2023
...HEAVY RAINFALL FLOODING POSSIBLE AGAIN THROUGH TONIGHT...
...COASTAL FLOODING FOR THE COAST AND ST JOHNS RIVER THROUGH FRIDAY...
An inverted trough is deepening over the coastal waters along the front that is draped across the area. The pressure gradient tightens along the GA waters bringing a surge of northeasterly winds across the waters and along the coast. Showers and storms will be focused along and south of the boundary mainly across NE FL. The moist tropical airmass (PWATs 2+ in) will continue the threat of locally heavy rainfall across coastal NE FL and north-central FL. A Flood Watch continues for the I-95 corridor as potentially 1-3 inches could fall on already saturated ls. Moist onshore flow and lift from the front will continue showers and storms along the frontal boundary as it shifts southeastward into north central FL
After a few days of flopping back and forth with a weak cutoff low, global models have converged on a solution of a positive tilt short wave trough moving slowly east across the GOMEX Thu-Fri night, then sagging E-SE across FL this weekend. Broad surface troughing sharpens a bit Fri morning as a
frontal boundary sags into the northern CWA, then becomes more diffuse again Sat-Sun as the boundary sags across the central peninsula whilst getting bridged by freshening onshore/ENE winds.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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At dawn this morning in Daytona Beach Shores, wind is light NW under a partly cloudy sky, surf is 1-2' and glassy. Up the coast in St. Augustine, quite a different story as the coastal erosion event is underway with the early morning high tide: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=T9P2RDFNBss
The N/NE surge will push down the coast to Daytona Beach by early afternoon (maybe sooner) so after finishing the morning chores gonna catch a few clean peelers before the surf blows out.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Thu Sep 28 2023 08:04 AM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Jacksonville FL
712 AM EDT Thu Sep 28 2023
Latest analysis places a frontal zone over southern portions of the area as a ridge of high pressure builds across southeast GA and into FL. Persistent band-like showers are occurring just to the north of the boundary over St. Johns/Flagler/Putnam counties and slowly creeping southward with the front, with just some mist and drizzle occurring closer to the coasts north of St. Johns County. Breezy conditions also continue with the strengthening pressure gradient, which will increase a bit more diurnally today across all areas. Breezy northeasterly winds expected at times around 15-20 mph for the coast, lower speeds further inland. Gusts at the coastal areas expected to be around the 25-35 mph range.
Coastal flooding: Tidal water levels are expected to meet coastal flood advy criteria today, with good potential to meet coastal flood warning criteria from around Mayport northward to St Simons Island where extra-tropical surge guidance shows levels at about 2.4 to 2.8 ft MHHW. Water levels are very near coastal flood advy along the St Johns River from inland Duval county to Satsuma in Putnam county and should eventually meet and exceed minor flooding
later today or tonight. These elevated water levels along the coast and St Johns River are likely to continue the next few days so coastal flood advisories will likely need to be extended through early next week given the higher astronomical tides and the persistent onshore flow.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Follow-up from this morning's surf "session"...
Even though wind was light and surface conditions were glassy, the long shore drift from north to south has dramatically increased, and breaking waves are now 2-3' on the beach with larger sets breaking on the outside sandbar. This morning's high tide ran up several feet above yesterday's morning high tide given the increase in surf size combined with lunar cycle contribution which will peak tomorrow morning and again Saturday morning.
There was quite a bit of new (tagged and unused) lumber (6x6' posts and 6"x12' boards) in the surf from the stash left on the beach to rebuild a dune crossover to the north. Volusia County Coastal division has yet to pull their trash cans off the beach, which will probably become additional flotsam on the ensuing high tides as the onshore flow ramps up.
Thar she blows... just heard thunder (11:20 am) from a cluster of heavy showers 5-10 miles north up the coast that are lingering over Ormond Beach-Daytona Beach. Wind here in DBS is still fairly light... 5-10 mph from the north.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Note the small cluster of convection over the coast over NE Volusia/Flagler counties as well as the large area of deep convection well offshore from GA/SC:
GOES EAST southeast US visible loop
SW shear along frontal boundary draped across north/central Fla is very evident.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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Off/on rain showers( ITVO the quasi-stationary boundary) from the Cape north to St. Augustine past 3 days have produced significant rain totals along and just inland from the coast ranging from 4" at my location to around 8" in Daytona/Ormond Beach north to Marineland. Another area of banded showers, produced by an enhanced area of speed convergence along the boundary, is poised to come onshore later this morning in the same general area riding a surge of 20-30 mph NE winds: JAX radar
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
Reged:
Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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This morning's entry for my station (FL-VL-42) part of the CoCoHaRS network: 7AM: 76F, CLOUDY WITH LIGHT (OCCASIONALLY MODERATE) RAIN, WIND NE 13 MPH. MOST (4.20") OF THE 5.19" RAINFALL PAST 24-HRS FELL IN A 1-HOUR PERIOD FROM 4-5 AM THIS MORNING.
An additional 0.70" measured today (up until 8pm) as additional scattered/brief showers continue to funnel in off the Atlantic riding the strong onshore flow from the NE 15-25 mph. Coastal erosion is significant here in DBS, and a few of the oceanfront properties that did not take armament measures following last fall's back to back tropical storms have suffered additional loss of l and infrastructure from high tides that are running 2-3' above normal, exacerbated by 4-6' surf and run-off from a half foot of rain.. This pro-longed event is every bit as bad as a medium-end tropical storm in coastal Volusia county.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
Edited by IsoFlame (Sat Sep 30 2023 08:06 PM)
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