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92L now up to a 60% chance for development. Recon out there but just under the threshhold for classification, may become a TD later today.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 296 (Idalia) , Major: 296 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 296 (Idalia) Major: 296 (Idalia)
22.3N 102.0W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1000mb
Moving:
W at 24 mph
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Archives 2020s >> 2023 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Hybrid Low S Florida/Keys
      #114843 - Thu Nov 16 2023 04:49 AM



A hybrid area of low pressure, a break-off from the non-tropical low traveling across the northern Gulf of Mexico, is packing quite a lot of punch tonight, and although conditions for transition into a more traditional (Nameable) sub-tropical, say nothing of tropical, storm are limited, this area of low pressure does possess some features often found in both non-tropical and tropical cyclones.

Given the intensity of the storm and proximity to land, we are starting a lounge on this feature now despite very low (10%) official NHC odds of classification.

This developing low pressure system has already been producing sustained surface winds well into tropical storm force, and has something of an "eye-like" feature presently located over Key Largo. Models suggest that there is a slight chance that this could develop into something that resembles a hybrid hurricane as it tracks northeast along or nearly along the Gulf Stream, en route towards the coastal northeastern US, Canada, or out to sea.

This feature does not yet have an Invest tag, but could be assigned one, and the title will be updated accordingly as warranted.


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TanukiMario
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Re: Hybrid Low S Florida/Keys [Re: cieldumort]
      #114844 - Thu Nov 16 2023 08:20 AM

Went to bed last night with the highest wind forecast at 27kts/32gusts and was woken up at 3am to 44knots sustained and a 52 knot gust on the anemometer on my boat (behind my house) and the power flickering.

Just came back in after doubling up some lines and adding more fenders, soaked to the bone and just a little annoyed, wondering who wet the bed on this forecast.

Morning news will be interesting, not to mention the posts on “Only in Dade”


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JMII
Weather Master


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Posts: 493
Loc: Margate, Florida
Re: Hybrid Low S Florida/Keys [Re: TanukiMario]
      #114845 - Thu Nov 16 2023 01:01 PM

That was crazy. Here in Broward we experienced more wind and rain in 48 hours than the last several times there was a tropical storm warning from a “real” storm.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 303
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hybrid Low S Florida/Keys [Re: JMII]
      #114846 - Thu Nov 16 2023 05:14 PM

Models were spot on about the location of the hybrid spin-up, a bit off on intensity. Here in Daytona Beach Shores, had a windy night (east 25-35 mph) followed by a brief "lull" early this morning, then a ramp up once again this morning associated with shower bands streaming in off the Atlantic with wind E/ESE 30-40 mph (gusting to 40+). This morning's high tide was 2 feet above normal. Unsure of how bad dune erosion is where there is a dune because all we have here (in central coastal Volusia) are newly rebuilt sea walls and old concrete debris (leftover from last year's storms) where old sea walls weren't repaired.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IsoFlame
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Posts: 303
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Hybrid Low S Florida/Keys [Re: IsoFlame]
      #114847 - Fri Nov 17 2023 01:35 PM

From my morning observation for CoCoRaHS station FL-VL-42:

7AM: 73F, CLOUDY, WIND NE 8 MPH. THE STRONG ONSHORE WIND OFF THE ATLANTIC HAS FINALLY RELAXED SOME THIS MORNING. MUCH OF THE 24-HR PRECIPITATION TOTAL OF 6.21 INCHES FELL BETWEEN 12:30-3:30 PM (NEARLY 3") AND BETWEEN 5:30-9:30 PM (2.5"). THE HIGHEST WIND GUSTS (IN EXCESS OF 40 MPH) FROM THE EAST WERE OBSERVED MID-MORNING BEFORE THE FIRST PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN, THEN AGAIN IN THE EARLY EVENING DURING THE ONSET OF THE SECOND PERIOD OF HEAVY RAIN.

--------------------
CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/


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IdaliaJackson
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Re: Hybrid Low S Florida/Keys [Re: cieldumort]
      #114848 - Tue Nov 21 2023 10:39 AM

Season's OVER!

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