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Nothing in the Atlantic currently for the next week or two.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 11 (Beryl) , Major: 324 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 324 (Idalia) Major: 324 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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General Long Range Lounge
      #114884 - Sat Jun 15 2024 01:00 PM

This post covers areas that aren't well known yet, but are mentioned on models.

Starting off there's an area on 12Z GFS showing a depression or tropical storm making landfall near Jacksonville FL Thursday, area matches the weaker area shown on 0z euro (which is more toward Brunswick, GA)

Only thing likely here is some rain for Extreme Northeast FL and/or Georgia Coasts later this week.

12z euro shows this system closer to the Treasure coast of Florida thursday evening, entering the Gulf and making Landfall is eastern Louisiana friday night.


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Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114887 - Sat Jun 15 2024 07:54 PM

This area is now tagged on the outlook with a 20% chance for development.

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Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114919 - Wed Jun 26 2024 07:36 AM

The general pattern for the longer wave on the outook is the "Caribbean cruiser" system. Meaning it doesn't really recurve at all, and goes right into Central America. This was the pattern suggested by the long range climate models for the long term, so it'll be interesting to see if the 6Z GFS which shows exactly this or not. 0Z Euro and the Canadian GEM model also show it not leaving the Caribbean, but weaker to much weaker than the GFS. If so it's more likely not to get north of the Caribbean than it would. Those in the Leeward islands will want to keep up with this system though, any impacts there probably are around Monday.

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Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114920 - Wed Jun 26 2024 02:36 PM

Atlantic wave (40%) 12Z Euro has a cat 3 hitting cozumel in the long range (July 5th)

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Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114921 - Wed Jun 26 2024 04:13 PM

Now is invest 95L

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Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114973 - Tue Jul 09 2024 10:15 AM

After Beryl, not much going on model wise other than the Icon trying to hint at Something off the East Coast of Florida on Friday, but not really shown on any other model.

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Re: General Long Range Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114974 - Tue Jul 09 2024 05:00 PM

Well CMC And Euro (and ensembles) show it also now after 12Z, just weak and short lived though, heads up toward the SE North Carolina Coastline.

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