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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Area East of Bahamas Lounge (92L) [Re: MikeC]
      #114916 - Fri Jun 21 2024 01:49 PM

92L's LLC has stopped tracking W to WSW and instead has zagged WNW, into the shear.

The truth about Tropical Cyclone classification is that it is ultimately subjective. On one hand, there will be many who believe it is now a classic sheared TC. In my opinion, they are probably correct. There are others who would say that it has been too free of organized deep convection. I understand this. Given that 92L was probably already a tropical cyclone overnight with organized deep convection better aligned with the LLC, I personally lean to the take that it is a sheared tropical cyclone.

The odds of NHC classifying it in real time may be coming down, but the impacts will resemble that of a sheared tropical depression or sheared weak tropical storm, and it could in fact come together a bit more while approaching and/or coming ashore with the friction, despite the shear. Also, it may yet resume tracking more westward again, lessening the shear.


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