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Nothing in the Atlantic currently for the next week or two.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 12 (Beryl) , Major: 325 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 325 (Idalia) Major: 325 (Idalia)
 


General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge

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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Beryl Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114968 - Sun Jul 07 2024 01:16 PM

12Z HWRF just now starting to roll out is showing RI during the last 12 hours or so heading into landfall and brings Beryl ashore as just about Major. The other vort-centric runs (hurricane models) are mostly around high-end TS/low-end Cat 1. This probably represents a reasonable most likely lower and upper bound of Beryl's intensity at landfall (70-115 MPH).

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JMII
Weather Master


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Re: Beryl Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #114969 - Sun Jul 07 2024 04:17 PM

Quote:

and brings Beryl ashore as just about Major. The other vort-centric runs (hurricane models) are mostly around high-end TS/low-end Cat 1.




I think it will be in the low to mid Cat 1 range. Its still only a TS and flight recon doesn't show any symmetry but pressure has started dropping. No solid wrap around or eye wall yet on radar. Several models had it reaching hurricane status by this time but its been lagging behind compared to its previous over performing status. It only has around 12-16 hours before landfall to get itself together, thus a run to Cat 2/3 seems highly unlikely with land interaction becoming a factor. Its currently tracking right on top of the NHC centerline.

--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22


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LoisCane
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Re: Beryl Lounge [Re: JMII]
      #114970 - Sun Jul 07 2024 08:19 PM

Seems like it's getting close now at 70 MPH, recon in looking so... probably with this set up should have time to get hurricane status

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Beryl Lounge [Re: LoisCane]
      #114971 - Sun Jul 07 2024 09:02 PM

Been away for a week, but it looks like beryl will make it to Cat 1, and be intensifying, and come in just east of Matagorda Bay in a few hours.

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cieldumort
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Re: Beryl Lounge [Re: MikeC]
      #114972 - Mon Jul 08 2024 12:33 AM

I made it to my target location. Been thinking Texas City from the start, just so I can maximize my time in the dirty side of what should no longer be a *major* Major (tho still won't rule out RI closing in on landfall, as the environment supports it). The concern I have tho is flooding. Besides the wind and surge, this area is extremely prone to inland flooding and is under a WPC Level 3 of 4, which could go 4 of 4 tomorrow. In the top (third) floor of a hotel with an east (wind) facing window. Good eye candy. Will stay an extra day if flooding looks bad tomorrow.

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