cieldumort
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Invests 94L (Left) and 95L (right). June 26, 2024 1910z
A robust tropical wave in the far eastern Atlantic that we have been tracking and has some off and on strong model support is now Invest tagged, 95L, and given the over all strength of modeling, we are starting a Lounge on this feature at this time.
More details to follow ...
Invest 95L has become a tropical cyclone and Advisories are being prepared for TD . The title has been updated accordingly.
Now Beryl with the 11PM EDT 6/28/24 Advisory
Ciel
Edited by cieldumort (Fri Jun 28 2024 10:53 PM)
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cieldumort
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Today, Thursday June 27, kicks off the first day of a more complete set of model runs for 95L. Several coming in hot.
Disclaimer: we do not yet have a lot of good, reliable, granular data on what is going on, in, under and around 95L.
What we do have is some trustworthy satellite, microwave and commercial flight/ship/buoy data in the region that is being processed to greater or lesser degrees. These suggest a strong wave with some embedded vorts already exists. And we also have the background state in the Tropical Atlantic. This is very well known to be exceptionally conducive for the time of year and more closely resembles a typical August/September state than late June.
0z 06/27/24 Vort-centric Runs
GFS: Closed low/probable TD by overnight this coming Friday in the vicinity of 9N 44W. Hurricane by this coming Sunday night while about 275m SE of Barbados. Crosses the Windwards as a Cat 1/2 on Monday. Begins pulling NW and heads towards Jamaica, passing to the south of Jamaica as a stong TS next Wednesday. Crossing the Yucatan as a TS next Friday and enters the Bay of Campeche next Saturday, July 6th.
HAFS-A: Wave with some embedded vorts, at times producing tropical storm force winds until possible TC genesis around Friday/Saturday. Definitive TS by Saturday night while about 500m SE of Barbados. Passes just south of Barbados Sunday evening as a strong TS. Passes between Grenada and St. Vincent as a borderline hurricane Sunday night into predawn Monday. Tracks NW into the Caribbean as a solid Cat 1 Monday night (end of run).
HAFS-B: Wave with some embedded vorts, at times producing tropical storm force winds until possible TC genesis around Friday morning. Definitive TS by Friday afternoon, while about 740m SE of Barbados. Center passes just S of Barbados predawn Monday as a hurricane. Strong Cat 1 passing directly over St. Vincent midday Monday. Tracking NW, Cat 2 by Monday night in the Caribbean (end of run).
HMON: Wave/pos TD and then likely TS by Saturday night while about 940m SE of Barbados. Center passes about 60m S of Barbados Monday evening as a hurricane. Passes between Grenada and St. Vincent and enters the eastern Caribbean as a Cat 2 late Monday night (end of run)
HWRF: Probable TS Friday morning while about 1,450m SE of Barbados. Hurricane by Saturday night about 875m SE of Barbados. RFQ direct hit on Barbados Monday afternoon as a possible Major. Crosses St. Vincent as a Major Monday evening, entering eastern Caribbean as a Cat 3/4 overnight Monday.
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cieldumort
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MikeC
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0z now shows a category 2 hurricane approaching Grenada and St. VIncent and the Grenadines on Monday. Then weakening back to a tropical storm, as it nears Jamaica on Wednesday, passing south of Grand Cayman, then getting south of Cozumel on Friday the 5th as a weaker system. Then crosses the Yucatan peninsula and winds up making landfall as a weak system near where Alberto did in Mexico. also shows a "Chaser" system behind 95L.
0z Canadian is not as strong (More like a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane as it nears the islands) , but slower forward motion. IT t does get closer to Barbados than the , further away from Jamaica, but closer to Grand Cayman, and eventual landfall near Cozumel, MX.
0z Euro is weaker overall (More like a strong TS or cat 1 hurricane as it nears the islands) , but is also closer to Barbados. Stays further south than the others into the Caribbean and landfalls near the Nicaragua/Honduras border Thrusday of next week.
Generally, still to far to say, but it's most likely this stays in the Caribbean the entire run and is unlikely to get north of there. A few ensemble members of the Euro show it, but the vast majority keep it in the Caribbean. the 6z bends it more north however, and goes through Cuba winding up in the Gulf, so monitoring the system for a while may be necessary. Once it develops and some recon is in there track may get a little more solid.
most likely, it's moderate and stays within the Caribbean. Lesser Antilles definitely need to watch.
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cieldumort
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The 12Z ensemble runs are out and up on Weathernerds.org now. These are often a better guide, albeit also quite early, for a feature that is not yet a TC and simply Invest tagged, than either the vort-centric models (best for bona fide TCs) or even the deterministic runs, that oversell what their particular biases are. E.g., significant development on virtually anything that spins by the operational .
The early EURO ensembles (above) suggest that 95L would ultimately have a more northerly track if stronger, and a more westerly track if weaker, with a few exceptions.
The early ensembles appear more evenly divided, with opportunities for both westward and northward tracks, regardless of intensity. This may be in part due to the early development bias still in these, along with an expectation for some higher net shear in the Caribbean, ending some runs and moderating others.
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MikeC
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0z ensembles show a split, with a favor toward the rest runs, a lot depends on how soon and how much 95L organizes in the near term.
06z is closer to Barbados and St. Lucia/St. Vincent than earlier runs, and it gets there as a cat 1/2 hurricane on Monday. Then moves more west northwest and the system weakens greatly near Hispaniola. With the chaser system (that only it and the show, not the Euro) gains, the followup then crosses Cuba and rides just east of the Florida coast around Juliy 7th and goes into Georgia as a tropical storm. This scenario seems too wild to take into account, although the system weakining int he Caribbean is likely.
0z has a cat 1 landfall in ST. Lucia on Monday, then keeps it strong all the way into a landfall on the Belize Mexico border on July 6th. The chaser system is also there on this model, and that gets into the Gulf as a TS or Cat 1 hurricane.
The chaser is a wildcard on those models.
0z Euro has landfall near St. Vincent and the Grenadines on Monday, with a strong TS or Cat 1 hurricane. Then landfall in Hornduras just north of the Nicaragua border as a tropical storm on Thursday. There is still no sign of any chaser system on the Euro. Although the has that potential area at 20% now.
Beyond that a bit scattered, still most ensembles and the euro/CMS favors it staying in the Caribbean.
Takeaway, the Leewards may want to prepare for a hurricane, beyond that too soon to tell, but most likely it weakens and moves west in the Caribbean, I highly doubt it gets into the Gulf. Also need to watch if anything forms or not east of 95L later.
Edited by CFHC (Fri Jun 28 2024 09:36 AM)
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cieldumort
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Here are my initial maximum lifetime intensity probabilities expectations for Beryl.
Lower than normal confidence owing to a number of early season variables still in play that are less so during the true climo peak, as well as the consensus forecast track that is presently advertising land interactions, some of it potentially mountainous and disruptive.
Low-end Tropical Storm (Current advisory): Nearly 0%
Mid-range Tropical Storm: 1%
High-end Tropical Storm: 4%
Cat 1 Hurricane: 14%
Cat 2 Hurricane: 18%
Cat 3 Hurricane: 22%
Cat 4 Hurricane: 25%
Cat5 Hurricane: 16%
Another way of looking at this, is that I anticipate Beryl to have a 95% chance of becoming a hurricane during his existence and a 63% chance of becoming a Major.
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MikeC
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Once past the Windwards, the TVCN consensus has shifted left again for 12Z, so it looks like Beryl may get close to Jamaica, but I still think this system likely won't make it into the Gulf. Yucatan Peninsula/Belize and Mexican Border is the general area still where I think it ultimately winds up. Direct US effects are highly unlikely with Beryl. The wave east of it may be different though.
Jamaica and the Cayman Islands definitely should be watching it longer term.
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cieldumort
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There is a lot of general track consensus among virtually all models and their ensemble members out through about Days 4 and 5.
Beyond Day 4/5, spread starts to diverge into to main camps: Camp A) Somewhat to considerably weaker and west, with a few exceptions, and Camp B) Somewhat to considerably stronger and US-bound, with a few exceptions. Notably, out past about 5 days the EURO ensemble mean definitively tracks towards whereas the ensemble mean tries to but seems to hit a brick wall of confusion instead.
Above: and 12Z ensembles now up. Credits: Weathernerds.org
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cieldumort
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Longer range, model track forecasts for Beryl continue a trend that bends poleward towards the US, mostly Texas, for now. The way they arrive at this looks very plausible.
In the immediate to near term, Beryl continues to RI and may quite possibly make a run for Cat 5 within the next 72 hours. An intensifying hurricane and already Major as it passes through the Windwards, is almost certain. Given that Beryl is a smaller-size tropical cyclone with an increasingly tight inner core, recon data will prove invaluable in determining how dire the situation may be for one or more islands.
Flying a bit blind without any recon missions so far, but my updated lifetime max intensity probs for Beryl are easy enough to put out there with what is already known:
Cat 1 (Presently) 2%
Cat 2: 6%
Cat 3: 17%
Cat 4: 38%
Cat 5: 37%
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cieldumort
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0z Ensemble and ensemble mean (black line)
0z Ensemble and ensemble mean (black line)
Image credits: Weathernerds.org
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MikeC
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6z Croses the Grenadines midday tomorrow, then moves into the Caribbean, weakens, but remains a hurricne, then moves toward a scrape by or landfall in southwestern Jamaica midday Wednesday, then weakens more because of land interaction and moves just south of the Cayman Islands. Moves in just south of Cozumel midday Friday in Mexico, cat 2 or 3 hurricane, crosses into the Bay of Campeche Late Friday, then landfalls around Corpus Christi, TX as a cat 1 hurricane Midday Sunday (7th).
0z clips southwestern Haiti, then goes over the Isle of Youth and Western Cuba Thursday, then to Louisiana just west of Port Fouchon, near Houma Saturday night.
0z Euro Stays south of Jamaica and landfalls near the Belize/Mexico border Friday morning.
Bigger spread in the long range than before. is probably the outlier here.
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JMII
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Well that escalated quickly. I guess our new norm is rapid intensification. Stronger storms tend to track poleward but there is a bubble of high pressure over the SE protecting us here in the states.
--------------------
South FL Native... experienced many tropical systems, put up the panels for:
David 79 - Floyd 87 - Andrew 92 - Georges 98 - Frances 04 - Wilma 05 - Matthew 16 - Irma 17
Lost our St James City rental property to Ian 22
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cieldumort
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Today's 12Z and ensembles continue the trend of individual ensemble members to split into two general camps, with one grouping consisting of mostly weaker Beryls and tracking west into Mexico, and the other grouping mostly stronger Beryls and tracking northwest into just-south-of-Texas, Texas itself, or Louisiana.
Above: 7/12z Ensembles Image cr. Weathernerds.org
Above: 7/12z GEFS Ensembles Image cr. Weathernerds.org
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