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Remnants from E PAC storms are forecast to move into SW Gulf by Friday and have a slight chance of redeveloping there. Rain likely going up in S TX and coastal TX either way.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 609 (Milton), US Major: 609 (Milton), FL Any: 609 (Milton), FL Major: 609 (Milton)
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Archives 2020s >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Hurricane Hone Lounge
      #115090 - Wed Aug 21 2024 06:19 PM


Left: Invest 91E. Right: Hurricane Gilma

A well-defined low pressure area east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is already on the cusp of becoming a tropical cyclone. Given that this system increasingly has environmental and model support for development with a track that takes it perilously close to the Hawaiian islands, we are starting a Lounge on this system at this time. This feature is Invest-tagged 91E, which is a merger of two areas of previously watched disturbances.

Invest 91E has become a full-fledged tropical cyclone, TD ONE in the Central Pacific, and the title has been updated accordingly.
2024-08-22-12z 15.4N 140.3W 30 KNOTS
Tropical Storm Hone as of the 1100 AM HST Thu Aug 22 2024 Advisory

Recon and radar are showing that Hone is now a hurricane. 8-25-24-0715z
-Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Sun Aug 25 2024 03:18 AM)

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cieldumort
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Re: Invest 91E Lounge (Hawaii?) [Re: cieldumort]
      #115091 - Thu Aug 22 2024 10:56 AM





Invest 91E has become a tropical cyclone, presently estimated possibly conservatively to be a TD, CP ONE, and advisories will begin in the Central Pacific. Watches and even Warnings could be going up for Hawaii this week.

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cieldumort
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Re: Tropical Storm Hone (Hawaii threat) [Re: cieldumort]
      #115093 - Sat Aug 24 2024 04:05 PM

Hone has been tracking a hair north of forecast and intensifying a little more than forecast. Satellite and recon suggests that the cyclone may be making a run at hurricane prior to passing west of the Big Island. A track a little on the stronger side and closer to or even directly over the Big Island is supported by a few of the ensemble members. Something to keep an eye on, as a hurricane watch or even warning is not out of the realm of possibility.


Above:
UKMET Ensembles 8-24-24-0z
GFS Ensembles 8-24-24-12z
ECMWF Ensembles 8-24-24-0z
Credit: Brian Tang

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