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General Discussion >> 2024 Forecast Lounge
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


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Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Watching for home-grown tropical cyclogenesis in early Sept
      #115100 - Fri Aug 30 2024 03:13 PM

12Z GFS spins up a strong TC in the central GOMEX, and another hybrid or tropical low in the western Atlantic off Hatteras late in the first week of September approaching the historical Sept 10/11 seasonal peak of activity. I believe these regions will be responsible for any flurry of activity in September and October to wipe egg off the face of the earlier above average forecasts for the 2024 season.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst


Reged:
Posts: 370
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
Re: Watching for home-grown tropical cyclogenesis in early Sept [Re: IsoFlame]
      #115106 - Fri Sep 06 2024 01:22 PM

The pesky frontal boundary stretching across the northern GOMEX, draped across north florida then off the southeast US coast continues to generate pockets of convection with embedded meso-scale circulations. I believe models (and the NHC) are having a hard time grasping any of the multiple small-scale circulations along the boundary. Even though climo suggests something should spin up over the peak warm SST's in both the GOMEX and Atlantic off the southeast US coast, I believe a "break-out" system could form on short notice either side of the Florida penisula in the coming days. This seems to be the scenario for the first 2 weeks of historically active September.

Another front will drop down the coast into north Florida early next week then wash out, re-enforcing the same. Afterward, some modeling has suggested a stronger front on the backside of a departing coastal low off the southeast coast will push down the length of the Florida peninsula around the 16th, and "cool" high pressure behind the front will scour out tropical moisture. If this pans out, the wet season could end about 2-3 weeks earlier than what we typically see.

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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/

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