CFHC
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Posts: 181
Loc: East Central Florida
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12z develops a few things off the carolinas. One of those gets near bermuda.
12z canadian puts something close to s. Florida similar to euro ai.
Edited by MikeC (Sun Jul 27 2025 04:01 PM)
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 386
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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I'm favoring potential western Atlantic TC formation in early August a bit further south offshore of Savannaha GA. Will a single consolidated low spin up along an old frontal boundary, or possibly several lows if the boundary lingers as portrayed in the latest ? This season, I don't have faith in model conjecture more than 3-4 days out ATM. That said, homegrown systems can evolve in a matter of hours instead of days.
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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MikeC
Admin
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Former area of 94L looks decent on satellite this morning Northeast of Puerto Rico, but it'll be entering areas affected by the Saharan Air Layer, so likely short lived.
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IsoFlame
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 386
Loc: One block off the Atlantic Oce...
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TC (Dexter?) spins up east of the Carolinas next weekend?
GFS
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CoCoRaHS Weather Observer (FL-VL-42) & Surf Forecaster: https://www.surf-station.com/north-florida-surf-forecast-3/
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bob3d
Weather Hobbyist
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Loc: Pasco County, Florida
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Quote:
TC (Dexter?) spins up east of the Carolinas next weekend?
GFS
IsoFlame,
I get an error (403 forbidden) when selecting the link you provided.
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bob
Time in West Central Florida: 52 years
Edited by bob3d (Mon Jul 28 2025 04:47 PM)
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Euro, Icon, Euro AI and Candian still insist the wave is the MDR becomes a late bloomer closer to the Bahamas. Euro now takes it over Florida and develops in t he Gulf, The AI Version is simiilar but doesn't develop as much in the Gulf. Canadian keeps it east of Florida, and the keeps it in the Islands and doesn't develop at all.
GFS has moved away from anything organized off the Carolinas, but there's still some energy possible there. (None of the other models latch onto it) However plenty of ensembles still show it, whereas the ensembles are much less enthusiastic about the MDR.
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MikeC
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Loc: Orlando, FL
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Still nothing too concerning in the short term, just the possible wave nearing the islands this weekend and it moving into the Bahamas with less support for development than before, however something to lounge watch, but is not worth mentioning otherwise from what I can see. Another wave behind that is in that state too right now.
An area forming east off the carolinas is also small shot, it would likely get stretched/sheared apart if anything did develop and avoid land interaction on top of it.
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