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Barry now inland over eastern Mexico. Flooding and mudslides a risk there the next few days. Elsewhere, now watching SE US for next weekend potential development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 264 (Milton) , Major: 264 (Milton) Florida - Any: 264 (Milton) Major: 264 (Milton)
Rem Barry
ADV#7 5:00 am EDT
23.0N 99.2W
Wind: 30MPH
Pres: 1008mb
Moving:
Nw at 12 mph
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Invest TBD Southeast Development July 4 Weekend
      #115573 - Sun Jun 29 2025 12:49 PM

A majority of global model runs are now latching on to the potential for a home-grown system along an old frontal boundary somewhere in the vicinity of either side of Florida later in the new week and into the July 4th weekend, and given such a strong signal this far ahead and the implications of impactful weather in the region over the holiday, we are starting a lounge on this yet still unformed system at this time.


More to come

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Invest TBD Southeast Development July 4 Weekend [Re: cieldumort]
      #115575 - Sun Jun 29 2025 06:01 PM

I don't think this will develop, but it will still cause a lot of rain and some localized flooding, here's the GFS ensemble tracks. A lot rides on exactly where it consolidates, if it's over land it's not going to amount to much more than rain. Although if that occurs it's still possible for it to form off the Atlantic, but it'll be away from land at that point. Wet week in Florida mostly.

GFS Ensembles probably show the better spread, as does the google. Euro doesn't handle this situation very well (if something does form later it will however)


12 GFS ensembles:


12z euro ensembles:


12z Google models:


turned on the long term radar recording for it though here

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CFHCAdministrator



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Loc: East Central Florida
Re: Invest TBD Southeast Development July 4 Weekend [Re: MikeC]
      #115578 - Mon Jun 30 2025 03:08 PM

Model support is starting to drop off considerably this afternoon

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