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#Erin is now entering more favorable conditions for development. Nrn Leewards and Bermuda should monitor. Now also tracking Invest #98L in the SW Gulf. Potential NEMX/STX this weekend.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 308 (Milton) , Major: 308 (Milton) Florida - Any: 308 (Milton) Major: 308 (Milton)
TS Erin
ADV#12 5:00 am EDT
16.3N 48.2W
Wind: 50MPH
Pres: 1002mb
Moving:
W at 17 mph
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General Discussion >> 2025 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
98L Forecast Lounge
      #115738 - Wed Aug 13 2025 06:46 PM


Above: Invest 98L entering the Bay of Campeche 8/13/25/2246z


Above: Bay of Campeche SSTs cr. Cyclonicwx.com

A tropical wave just now starting to exit the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico is in a prime location to take advantage of the geography in this region, which tends to induce its own area of cyclonic rotation. While the wave itself does not yet have much in the way of a surface reflection, the Bay is furthermore in a region of very light to almost non-existent wind shear, and the waters are exceptionally warm, running above normal and in the 29.5c to 31.5 range for the most part

Global models are scarcely noticing this feature, but NHC assigned it a "slight" and this is now Invest tagged, 98L. Given that it is landlocked and sure to impact someone onshore in addition to local navigation interests, and the fact that conditions for development belie what the Globals are putting out, we are starting a Lounge on this feature at this time.

98L is likely to continue northwesterly at 10-15MPH, which would take it inland over northeastern Mexico, or potentially deep south Texas, by Saturday.

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cieldumort
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Re: 98L Forecast Lounge [Re: cieldumort]
      #115739 - Wed Aug 13 2025 07:30 PM

Tentative recon missions of 98L scheduled for Thursday and Friday in the SW Gulf



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