Current Radar or Satellite Image

Flhurricane.com - Central Florida Hurricane Center - Tracking Storms since 199531 Years of Hurricanes Without the Hype - Since 1995


Remnants from E PAC storms are forecast to move into SW Gulf by Friday and have a slight chance of redeveloping there. Rain likely going up in S TX and coastal TX either way.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 608 (Milton), US Major: 608 (Milton), FL Any: 608 (Milton), FL Major: 608 (Milton)
FlHurricane Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Tracking 🌀 Since 1995
None
HypeScale:
0.10
0510
Communication
Storm Data
Content
Follow & Connect
Facebook   Twitter/X 🌎 National Hurricane Center
Login to remove ads
 

You are not logged in. [Login] Other Forums · Search · Active Topics
New user · Who's Online · FAQ · Rules · Calendar

General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
Previous topic Previous   View all topics Index   Next topic Next   Threaded Mode Threaded  

Jump to first unread post. Pages: 1
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2676
Loc: Austin, Tx
EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK)
      #115998 - Wed Jun 10 2026 05:15 AM



It is looking increasingly probable that a significant increase in precipitable water, and at least some variation of a mostly to completely closed-off lower-level vort, will be drawn into or reform over the western Gulf later this week from DNA remnants of soon-to-be former East Pac Tropical Storm Cristina, leftovers of former East Pac Tropical Storm Boris, and the general weak gyre-like feature associated with the regional monsoon. More and more, models are on alert for this mix to potentially become our first Atlantic Invest of the year - possibly also bringing significantly enhanced rainfall to portions of Texas and Louisiana that may already be susceptible to flooding after recent rains.

Given that models are almost insistent some type of coherent disturbance will track across central America to resurface in the western Gulf over the next 36-84 hours, we will start a Lounge on this forecast weather-maker (Invest unknown/tbd) at this time.

Below: Globals 925mb winds and relative humidity at 84 hours out from 6/10/0z Cr. Pivotal Weather


Below: EURO AI Ensemble Run 6/10/0z Cr. Weathernerds.org


Below: EURO (Traditional) Ensemble Run 6/10/0z Cr. Weathernerds.org


Below: Google DeepMind FNV3 (GDM-FNV3 is DeepMind's newest ensemble probabilistic machine learning weather model, optimized for cyclones) Cr. Weathernerds.org

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
CFHCAdministrator



Reged:
Posts: 203
Loc: East Central Florida
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) [Re: cieldumort]
      #116000 - Wed Jun 10 2026 10:53 AM

Cristina model guidance:


Water seems to be the biggest impact here, don't really expect development.

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2676
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) [Re: cieldumort]
      #116001 - Wed Jun 10 2026 11:46 AM



Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2676
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) [Re: cieldumort]
      #116003 - Wed Jun 10 2026 12:44 PM

It now also appears likely that the forecast Area of Interest in the W Gulf will also be getting an assist from an approaching tropical wave, clearly visible in the western Caribbean this morning.

Western Gulf development odds are probably going to get nudged up.




Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
cieldumort
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 2676
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: EPAC Vorticity Cross-Over (Invest UNK) [Re: cieldumort]
      #116004 - Wed Jun 10 2026 02:38 PM

The few GDM-FNV3 ensembles that generate a TC from this continue to hold off until early next week while in the vicinity of south Texas, with today's 12Z run
It will be helpful if recon does make that trip into the Bay of Campeche Friday

Post Extras: Print Post   Remind Me!   Notify Moderator  
Pages: 1


Previous topic Previous   View all topics Index   Next topic Next   Threaded Mode Threaded  

Extra information
0 registered and 0 anonymous users are browsing this forum.

Moderator:  

Print Topic

Forum Permissions
      You cannot start new topics
      You cannot reply to topics
      HTML is disabled
      UBBCode is enabled

Rating:
Topic views: 86

Rate this topic

Jump to

Note: This is NOT an official page. It is run by weather hobbyists and should not be used as a replacement for official sources.
Great thanks to all who donated and everyone who uses the site as well. Site designed for 1920x1080+ resolution.
When in doubt, take the word of the National Hurricane Center.