An area of mid-level low pressure appears to be developing over Florida as we head into Friday. Models increasingly also expect a surface low to form, at least once enough of the system has meandered into the eastern Gulf. More and more of the most recent runs, including several of the high-quality Google DeepMind and other machine-learners, spin up a tropical or subtropical cyclone early-mid next week, maybe even sooner.
As can be seen in the image above, this low is forming from the favorable interaction of sandwiching between two areas of high pressure, with the resulting cyclonic flow between them tightening up.
The background state for development includes the MJO analyzed in a favorable Phase 8, and very warm gulf waters. While a pronounced El Niño is now underway in the Pacific, home-grown systems of this sort are always a valid concern, even during strong El Niño years.
Given the somewhat favorable environment for development, that there continues to be an upswing in the number of models and ensembles developing a nameable cyclone, and the fact that anything that forms in this region would be instantly landlocked right on the doorstep of the United States, we are starting a Lounge on this potential Invest. Should this Area of Interest get Invest-tagged, the title will be updated accordingly. This could happen as soon as later today or over the coming weekend.
Even if a named storm does not form, this system is likely to be yet another rain and flood maker. All gulf states from Florida to Texas may want to monitor this feature closely.
Some machine learning ensemble runs (most recent 06Z).
The most recent runs of the individual members that actually do develop this system into a quasi-tropical or fully tropical cyclone almost unanimously drive it westward. It is worth noting that this may flip-flop back to tracking east again, but a lot seems to hinge on where genesis ultimately occurs, which is still a known unknown.
Tightening mid-level circulation and deeper convection is located just offshore.
This is not yet a tropical storm, and a consistent circulation is not yet at the surface, but this closed low aloft is rapidly attempting to build down to the surface today.
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