cieldumort
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Shear is back to getting the best of Bertha's valiant attempt to strengthen even more overnight, and is largely forecast to only increase for several days.
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cieldumort
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CFHC
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Bertha has likely peaked today, shear is unrelenting, most of the ensembles have it over Louisiana, and it still appears the most likely, south side is still pulsing with activity. A non nino year bertha would be formidible.
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cieldumort
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23/0z may have forecast a fairly accurate initial state for Bertha as of 06Z Thursday. Something to keep in mind when considering the for the remainder of Bertha's run.
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cieldumort
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In light of Bertha's current state and the weather being produced in the Gulf south of Louisiana and east of Texas overnight, the runs that bring Bertha up to a hurricane-force storm shown here now seem entirely plausible.
Hurricane-force winds already occurred earlier tonight within Bertha's MCV (though not necessarily representative of a surface low ~ we simply have no recon in there at this time).
HAFS-A
HAFS-B
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cieldumort
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Loc: Austin, Tx
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cieldumort
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