East AOI (60%) South of Cabo Verde

Just showing some model runs here, general idea is it's the only one with a really decent chance to develop on the outlook, no invest yet but could be tagged today or tomorrow.

GFS Ensembles, show the first wave remaining weak, second wave mostly going north, but a few ne runners. Takeaway is that it'll probably move north of the Caribbean, and wind up somewhat near Bermuda.

Euro is less likely to develop the western wave, but the eastern one does develop, more than likely staying east of the Caribbean islands, and getting relatively close to Bermuda.

Deep mind shows more impacts to the Eastern Caribbean, although weaker, if the storm remains weak the more of chance it has to become less, still odds favor it staying east of the US and relatively close to Bermuda here also.

0z Primary Euro has it missing the Caribbean and getting close enough to Bermuda to feel the western edge.
6z keeps it away from the Caribbean and comfortably east of Bermuda.
0z Canadian gets it into the Caribbean and curves it over the turks and caicos islands and out to sea, but it could get close to Bermuda there also.

Right now it's observe phase to watch for settling with model trends, and also awaiting invest tagging for later to help improve the overall forecast. Nothing concerning yet, other than saying hey Caribbean, watch this and see what happens. There's still quite a bit of shear ahead and most of the ensembles don't get too strong with the system.

Edited by CFHC (Mon Aug 10 2026 10:37 AM)

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