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93C in the Central Pacific is now PTC ONE. NHC Advisories for Hawaii are being created. Elsewhere, Atlantic Invest 93L is now Tropical Storm Cristobal, out at sea.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 672 (Milton), US Major: 672 (Milton), FL Any: 672 (Milton), FL Major: 672 (Milton)
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Cristobal
ADV#4 5:00 am EDT
38.6N -38.2W
Wind: 35MPH
Pres: 1014mb
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Present movement...ne or 45 degrees at 16 mph...26 km/h
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General Discussion >> 2026 Forecast Lounge
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cieldumortModerator
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Posts: 2757
Loc: Austin, Tx
94L Lounge
      #116107 - Tue Aug 11 2026 09:20 PM


Above: Invest 92L and to the east of 92L, the next wave to have rolled off Africa. Base satellite map credit: Weathernerds.org

Another very stout wave, and one already associated with deep convection, is now being monitored by NHC with an opening bid of 20%, which could be conservative. Model runs strongly suggest that if it becomes stronger, sooner, a recurve that could put Bermuda in play looks very possible. On the other hand, model runs that suggest it develops but stays on the relatively weaker side, interests in and around the eastern Caribbean may see impacts. Considering the sudden bloom of TCs across both basins and improving conditions for additional development in the Atlantic, we are already giving this feature close attention and starting a Forecast Lounge on it now. Invest TBD.

It would not be surprising to see this feature get Invest tagged as soon as within the next 24 hours.

The convectively active wave located east of 92L has been Invest-tagged, 94L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
2026-08-13 00:00 10.3N 24.8W 25KTS
Ciel

Edited by cieldumort (Wed Aug 12 2026 09:17 PM)

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: New East ATL Wave Invest TBD [Re: cieldumort]
      #116110 - Tue Aug 11 2026 11:26 PM

This next wave behind Invest 92L turns out to be the wave that the Google DeepMind FNV3 ensemble members have been bullish on.

As can be seen below, members that develop 92L wash it out just prior to it reaching or just after entering the eastern Caribbean, while behind 92L, this next wave seems to encounter a much more favorable environment for strengthening.



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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: New East ATL Wave Invest TBD [Re: cieldumort]
      #116111 - Wed Aug 12 2026 02:18 AM

We have an early lead on what the hurricane model HAFS-B is thinking about what will probably be tagged Invest 94L soon.

In the far lower right-hand corner of the image below, we can see that HAFS-B ramps this wave up to a Major by Saturday night


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