cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2785
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
A robust tropical wave that has just rolled into the far eastern Atlantic from western Africa is being closely monitored by for development potential. Conditions for development in the Tropical Atlantic extending out to western Africa are less hostile than they had been over the prior days during the month of August, and it seems like this one has a better chance. Model support is pretty warm overall, but there has been some back and forth, and it is not yet entirely clear that the low several runs want to develop are in fact this exact disturbance.
Considering that this wave is expected to track further west under high pressure to its north, could perhaps impact some land in the very extended range, and is more likely than not to become a named storm, we are starting a Lounge on it at this time. There is not yet an Invest tag, but this should be assigned any day now. odds are 60% within 5 days for tropical cyclogenesis.
The robust wave we have been monitoring has been Invest-tagged this afternoon, 96L, and the title has been updated accordingly.
2026-08-24 18:00 11.0N 18.5W 20 KTS
Ciel
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2785
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
There is still quite a lot of dry, dusty air out there today. Some forecasts suggest that this wave should be tracking west while cocooned from most of it and/or that the amount of dry, dusty air will subside basin-wide this week.
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2785
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
The most recent full 1,000 member run of Google's DeepMind FNV3 advertises only a 15% chance of becoming a named storm, and if it does, it would favor recurving prior to a direct hit on land.
Image/graphic credit: TC-ATLAS
|
cieldumort
Moderator
Reged:
Posts: 2785
Loc: Austin, Tx
|
|
18z FNV3 out to 180 hours - Only a handful of members ramp up to at least 34 knots
|
CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 214
Loc: East Central Florida
|
|
Google's deep mind is less enthusiastic about 96L this morning, but it's looking decent on satellite and the vorticity charts, so it may develop into something (70%) is pretty good right now.
The is the most agressive, the deep mind is one of the weaker ones (only a few even develop it),
Euro doesn't develop 96L at all, some ofthe ensembles do, but not the majority.
Overall if it develops strongly, it'll likely turn out to east of Bermuda, if it stays weaker it may/may not develop later, Bermuda needs to watch. It's extremely Unlikely to get to the Caribbean or US, but not impossible.
|
Previous
Index
Next
Threaded
Edit
Reply
Quote
