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TROPICAL STORM WARNING FOR THE BIG ISLAND OF HAWAII IN EFFECT. HURRICANE WATCH AS WELL. NOLO LIKELY TO MAJOR ON APPROACH.
Days since last Hurricane Landfall — US Any: 714 (Milton), US Major: 714 (Milton), FL Any: 714 (Milton), FL Major: 714 (Milton)
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cieldumortModerator
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Loc: Austin, Tx
Polo (Cat 5 Presently) Already Impacting SW US
      #116264 - Wed Sep 23 2026 09:58 PM




Major Hurricane Polo, now a Category 5 for the second time in as many days, has already been helping pump up copious moisture into the southwestern US, resulting in several areas of significant rainfall and necessitating flash flood watches and warnings, while still well south of even the Baja. However, models are increasingly trending on tracks that could have the cyclone loop back towards Mexico and possibly even the southwestern US next week, and we are starting a de facto Lounge on this powerhouse tropical cyclone at this time.


More to come

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Polo (Cat 5 Presently) Already Impacting SW US [Re: cieldumort]
      #116266 - Thu Sep 24 2026 12:19 AM

Latest 0z runs of Globals + Hurricane Models on Polo.
These tracks are largely cut short not necessarily from implied decay, but rather how many hours these models' runs go for.


General consensus that Polo will recurve to the northeast, into and crossing the Baja, into and crossing the Gulf of California and into and potentially through Sonora and/or Chihuahua, MX.

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cieldumortModerator
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Re: Polo (Cat 5 Presently) Already Impacting SW US [Re: cieldumort]
      #116268 - Thu Sep 24 2026 01:00 AM

Today's 18Z FNv3 ensembles/swath for Polo out to 168 hours suggests a fairly high degree of uncertainty still exists out past roughly day among the DeepMinds


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