Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Seldom am I critical of because I know how difficult storm tracking can be with IR imagery, but this will be an exception. For the second day in a row, Nicholas will present another 'sunrise surprise'. During the night, the redeveloped and visible satellite images indicate that the center is actually about 75 miles due east of the advertised position at 09Z and is well embedded within the - not exactly a minor error in location.
Nicholas is currently stationary, however the average movement over the past 48 hours has been to the north northeast at 3mph. Intensity has increased again to at least 50 knots - perhaps even 55 knots. The southwesterly shear has relaxed a little and has become more southerly, with good outflow west through north, so the system still has a chance for some additional intensification. The anticipated westerly shear above 20N may not become as significant as earlier projections had indicated.
The big unknown relates to the trough to the west and whether or not it will pick up the system and move it off to the north northeast - if it doesn't, Nicholas could still be around for quite awhile.
ED
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Interesting convection moving into the Islands this morning. Also, several of the models have been maintaining low pressure in the extreme Western Caribbean. and have been the most bullish with development. That's a tough call. It looks like the kind of scenario where if something does develop down there, it's a timing thing. Will it oscillate between NW, N and NE depending on Ridges/Troughs passing by to the north? And when will it ultimately develop? If I'm in South Florida I'm watching for late week. It might be a Cuba and out scenario. It could be a Cuba then north. for two days developed the heck out of it. I'll go pull the 10/19 00Z run to see what it's doing today.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Last night's run wants to take a miss Florida scenario. Could be good for the surfers though.
10/19 00Z (PSU Model)
Hey Ed: For editing out my drunken "It's Pat" photo, you're going to get it in 2006! 
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nicholas is lingering, is all i'll say for that system. 94L has drifted into nicholas' envelope, very unlikely will remain a distinct entity. none of the central altantic swirls is holding down convection.. monsoon trough from colombia out into the east pacific is somewhat active, but more likely to spawn an eastpac system. there still isn't a 'trigger mechanism' for anything in the western caribbean in sight.
it figures to mention that is currently positive and suppressing convection in most of the basin. perhaps near month's end it will flip back.. if the basin still has enough shear-free places to support any kind of development. we may be finished after nicholas.. though i'm still holding my breath for a west carib system.
HF 1732z19october
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Unregistered User
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last Tuesday I posted that then TD19 may just Die out in the Altantic my gut feel still goes that way "NICHOLAS MAY NOT BE WITH US BY THE END OF THE FORECAST
PERIOD". If you were going to look any where for a TD would be in the western , south carb.
Old Sailor,
Eric
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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according to the 2:05pm twd a small 1006mb low is at 11/78. there is plenty of convection stewing in the area, but i don't see any kind of central u.s. amplification.. usually what is needed to cause disturbed weather in the area to bulge northward and become seperate from the . of course there doesn't seem to be a lot of westward push at that latitude, so whatever is there may get to sit and wait.
however, looks like nothing will form prior to mid week; probably later.
HF 2024z19october
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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seperate=separate.
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Nicholas is getting sheared to death; he may not even last 72 hrs. I really thought he'd make it to hurricane strength, and indeed, he was close (70> mph) but just not quite. As HF observed, 94L will probably never get named, and that's probably the end of the CV season. Still, stranger things have happened, and this has been one strange year. Thought for sure we'd see Odette, Peter & Rose...now we may be "lucky" just to see Odette. Fish one up on the Evil Empire...tonight we even the score. 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Unregistered User
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Hank, You may be right just finished painting the bottom of my sail boat, like washing your car. So if we get a storm out of the western carb, guess I'm to blame..
Eric
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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the caribbean in october.. stuff down there tends to take time.. rarely a surprise from that development region. if it comes along, it won't be happening very quickly. nicholas may keep lingering, i'm not for the sheared-to-death solution.. at least not within the forecast period. don't think it will reach land, don't think it will die very soon either.
it has a penchant for not moving just lately... rarely do you see a storm stall out in the eastern atlantic, at such low latitude.
as far as baseball goes... check the off-topic column.
HF 0248z20october
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Nicholas is continuing to weaken, and could be just a TD later today, and definitely by tomorrow. He is still encountering shear, and that shear will only increase as he drifts ever so slowly northwestward. By 36 hours he is forecast to be dissapating, and he will be picked up by the next big trof.
trof
Looks like the Carribbean/GOM are about the only spots left for new development.
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The trouble with weather forecasting is that it's right too often for us to ignore it and wrong too often for us to rely on it. ~Patrick Young 
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Well looks like the season is winding down, even though we still have Nicholas still hanging around in the Atl. Been an exciting and pretty active season with Isabel & Fabian and others. This was my first year on this site and i've learned a lot and want to thank you all for the insight and answers to my questions. Unless something develops in the W. Carib, this will be my last post for this season., looking forward to an exciting, interesting and (busy?) 2004 season, take care y'all !
AJ
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Don't run to far AJ as I think we will get at least 1 more development in the West Carribean but I am thinking next week. I don't think Hurricane Season 2003 is quite over.
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Jara
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
Reged: Wed
Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Hey Tropics Guy/AJ,
Glad you hung out for the season. You contributed quality posts all along, and I'm looking forward to 2004 as well. While isn't the biggest board on the web (FAR from it), it has earned its respect.
FWIW, I just finished looking at the PSU Genesis potential site. The 12Z Navy model should prove interesting for everyone in South and SW Florida.
Here's the link:
NOGAPS
NOGAPS is one of the first models to jump on the system that wants a NW-NNW movement over time. Earlier models all liked a Cuba and out scenario. So this one comes with some caution.
I read over on Storm 2K that Joe B apparently targeted today to be a good day for blowup down that a-way. I didn't read his comments, so I'm taking them as 2nd hand information.
As to other factors out there:
SST's - still strong enough for mid-grade development.
SOI - was positive 2nd, 3rd, 4th, 5th and 6th before going neutral for the 7th. Then it was 3 days of moderate negative then 2 in the tank. The negative influence should come into play most strongly around the 26th or 27th. That could mean a big old high across the Gulf South. It went back to neutral for 7 days after, and has again gone strongly negative. That tells me the artic air will be cut off, and maybe we'll have some ULL's and Pacific air progressing across the country. Anyway, the influence of the last big eastern trof should be out of here, and the country should be mild on the whole for a while. How this eventually plays into WC development remains to be seen.
AVN 48 hour shear maps show a strong jet across the central Gulf through the Bahamas peaking around 40 knots. That's not all that good for development, and it's trending stronger.
One favorable indication is the storm strength potential down there which shows sub 880, and is the strongest development potential area in the basin along with an area near 10/47
Maximum Storm Potential
Anyway, it's casual observation for me because I'll never see anything post October 20th originating in the Western Caribbean and coming north. It would appear to be a Florida and east (islands) problem.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.met-office.gov.uk/sec2/sec2cyclone/tcgts/wtnt80.txt
Also now the UKMET model jumps into this area but scroll down the link and see what positions it has for that potential system.But as Hank Frank said it will take it's time to develop but in my opinion it will be the last system we will see in the 2003 season.AJ dont go too far because sooner rather than later we will see development in the caribbean.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Tropics Guy
Storm Tracker
Reged: Thu
Posts: 252
Loc: Miami, Florida
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Hey Cycloneye & Steve, well, being that the models are picking up on some kind of development in the next few days in the W. Carib and possibly heading north, I won't go too far away from this site yet. Maybe we'll have one more (Odette) to track!, maybe this interesting season continues?.
Also, sure would like to hear from bobbi on this.
AJ
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Tropical Cyclones: "Mother nature's heat transfer machines"
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HanKFranK
User
Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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nogaps has been trying to develop something in the western caribbean all month, or at least casually suggesting it most of the time. now the rest of the globals seem to be jumping aboard, though they differ greatly in details. there is broad low pressure down there, and with a very strong high forecast to build into the eastern u.s. later in the week, the corresponding pressure falls and synoptic gradient set up in the caribbean should put us into that classic setup that sometimes gives us a system. my take is that the models evolve the system too quickly, if it is to get going.. and not going with the NE solution has the system taking. that's all if it can actually get going, and the low pressure doesn't move onshore in nicaragua before the environment configures to support it. still, the ingredients are now there.. we could have us another system later this week.
after all, the eastpac has spawned patricia.. usually have an atlantic system inside 6-10 of an eastpac development.. this one went down with unfavorable, looking for the monsoon trough and synoptic factors to carve out a storm in spite of a large scale inhibiting pattern.
earlier i said i doubted nicholas would degenerate inside the forecast period.. looking like i'll miss that one.. really going downhill now.
HF 2133z20october
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Mary K.
Weather Guru
Reged: Sun
Posts: 166
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Our little" use to was" is looking very healthy this morning, very well put together and shows no signs of going anywhere fast. Wonder what he will look like tonight, or, .... did I miss something and this is not Nicholas?
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weather is all you can count on, good or bad.
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
Reged: Tue
Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Hank....looks like you are okay this morning as NIck had a resurgence. I'm hearing conflicting information on the West Carib. Some say shear will not support anything for long and some say the shear is forecast to abate. Educate me please? Looks like the Caribbean is going to give us one more Hooray!!
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Jara
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LI Phil
User
Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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I was all set to bury Nicholas yesterday, but today, he has risen from the dead. Looks like he'll make it through 72 hours after all. I'll have my crow with a side of fries. Since he's not going to affect any land (except maybe Greenland), it would have been nice if he had made it to hurricane strength. That would have bumped up everybody's numbers for the season. We may need to watch the tropical wave south of Cuba and the wave in Nicholas' wake.
Atlantic waves
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"The weather is like the government, always in the wrong."
-- Jerome K. Jerome
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
Edited by LI Phil (Tue Oct 21 2003 10:41 AM)
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