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A few swirls trying to earn an Invest tag in the final days of the 2021 Season. Their environment is not ideal for development.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 74 (Nicholas) , Major: 90 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1144 (Michael) Major: 1144 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2003 News Talkback

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Caribbean Wave
      #13968 - Mon Nov 10 2003 10:52 PM

Maybe a close-out system for the season, but its still very disorganized. Active wave in the east central Caribbean Sea about 200 miles south of Puerto Rico with good convection in a broad area of low pressure. Some hints of low-level banding, so RECON may take a look at it on Tuesday. Slow movement to the north northeast and eventually northeast. Upper level environment may become a little more favorable on Tuesday.

Heavy rainsqualls and gusty winds likely for Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Models take the system to tropical storm strength, but...not quite the best of conditions for strengthening. Certainly worth watching.
ED

NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)

More discussion on the storm on our Storm Forum.

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:

North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF


DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET

Multi-model plots from WREL

Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Great night on TWC....Cantore and Schwartz
      #13969 - Mon Nov 10 2003 10:55 PM

Really cool, how often do you get the two of them on discussing a tropical system in November and with Cantore doing the color WV loop.



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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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MoparMitch
Weather Watcher


Reged: Wed
Posts: 28
Loc: Atlanta, GA
Re: Caribbean Wave
      #13970 - Tue Nov 11 2003 01:04 PM

Looks really impressive on IR. I am sure that I am not alone in saying that developing tropical systems (waves) this season for the most part have held up very well in hostile environments. I hope it is not a trend. Nevertheless, if this does develop it will be either sheared apart, or pushed into fish-spinner territory.

mitch...


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Caribbean Wave
      #13971 - Tue Nov 11 2003 01:35 PM

Agree with you there Mitch. This system looks quite well organised on both visible and IR imagery. Recon are in there now investigating this system, so we should know its true status within the next few hours.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
Re: Caribbean Wave
      #13972 - Tue Nov 11 2003 02:13 PM

i'm willing to bet this thing has multiple centers right now. appears to be one just north of the east tip of the d.r., possibly another (more likely mid level) south of the v.i., maybe another centroid feature near the south coast of puerto rico. because they are so spread out, i doubt this system would get depression status right now.. but with all the cloud debris in the area it's hard to say. may be something down there worth giving the upgrade to.
my forecast:
probably a tropical cyclone tomorrow, moving slowly n or nw near puerto rico.. north out to sea later in the week, possibly stalling out and dying as the escape shortwave will blow by too quickly to take the system out.
HF 1912z11november


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garyb
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 106
Loc: Hernando Beach,Fl
Re: Caribbean Wave
      #13973 - Tue Nov 11 2003 04:07 PM

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
11/1745 UTC 16.7N 65.7W T1.5/1.5 90


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doug
Weather Analyst


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1005
Loc: parrish,fl
Re: Caribbean Wave
      #13974 - Tue Nov 11 2003 04:16 PM

latest satellite seems to show a def. LLC moving fairly rapidly NE and was sittng right on 17.5/65.0. I think we have a storm, but it will never threaten the mainland. EDS>

--------------------
doug


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
think it looks so cool...better than many storms this year
      #13975 - Wed Nov 12 2003 09:49 AM

amazing.. has had a good look for a while now
go with consistency

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Recon again...
      #13976 - Wed Nov 12 2003 01:38 PM

Well recon are once again now investigating this disturbance. At least it is organised enough to generate TNumbers of 1.0/1.5. Not very strong i know, but its a start. Remains rather ragged looking on satellite. Of course, this disturbance probably still has multiple centres, so finding an accurate 'fix' or closed circulation might be a little difficult.

Anyways, will post again when there are any new developments.

Regards

--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
It's "officially" a Tropical Distburbance
      #13977 - Wed Nov 12 2003 02:44 PM

Think that's interesting. Not just a broad area of low pressure.

SPECIAL FEATURE...
TROPICAL DISTURBANCE..

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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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Brad in Miami
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 365
Re: It's "officially" a Tropical Distburbance
      #13978 - Wed Nov 12 2003 03:00 PM

From the recon reports that have come back so far, looks disorganized (as expected) but with low pressure - I've seen a 1005 mb report, so it looks like it's at most 1005 mb.

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Tropical Distburbance Statement
      #13979 - Wed Nov 12 2003 03:42 PM

SPECIAL TROPICAL DISTURBANCE STATEMENT
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL
325 PM EST WED NOV 12 2003

AN AIR FORCE RESERVE UNIT RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT HAS COMPLETED ITS
INVESTIGATION OF THE BROAD AREA OF LOW PRESSURE IN THE NORTHEASTERN
CARIBBEAN SEA. THE AIRCRAFT FOUND THAT THE LOW STILL DOES NOT HAVE
A WELL-DEFINED CENTER OF CIRCULATION...AND SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT THERE IS LITTLE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DIRECTLY ASSOCIATED WITH
THE LOW CENTER. WHILE THE SYSTEM HAS NOT YET ACQUIRED THE
CHARACTERISTICS OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE...IT IS SLOWLY BECOMING
BETTER ORGANIZED...AND A TROPICAL CYCLONE COULD STILL DEVELOP
DURING THE NEXT DAY OR TWO AS THE SYSTEM MOVES SLOWLY
NORTHEASTWARD.

REGARDLESS OF WHETHER OR NOT THIS SYSTEM BECOMES A TROPICAL
CYCLONE...IT IS EXPECTED TO PRODUCE HEAVY RAINS OVER PORTIONS OF
PUERTO RICO...THE VIRGIN ISLANDS...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS
OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. THESE RAINS WILL CONTINUE TO RESULT IN
POTENTIALLY LIFE-THREATENING FLASH FLOODS AND LANDSLIDES. FOR
ADDITIONAL INFORMATION ON CONDITIONS IN YOUR AREA...PLEASE CONSULT
STATEMENTS ISSUED BY YOUR LOCAL WEATHER OFFICE.

FORECASTER FRANKLIN


--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Meanwhile in the UK...
      #13980 - Thu Nov 13 2003 08:44 AM Attachment (817 downloads)

Hey guys,
i know were watching the disturbance down in the Caribbean, but i thought i would just let you know about a Major Atlantic Storm that is expected to impact parts of the UK tonight and Friday. The image attached shows it at 1130Z this morning, and it has gotten better organised since then too! Ship reports and bouy data support storm force winds in the southwest quadrant at present, with recorded gusts of 90 mph. THe Met. Office over here are warning of winds near 60 to 70 mph in some inland areas, with gusts near 90 mph over coastal areas or exposed locations! Anyway, just thought i'd let ya know

Regards as always...



--------------------
Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Meanwhile in the UK...
      #13981 - Thu Nov 13 2003 10:14 AM

Interesting image Rich. Classic comma shape. Here on Long Island we're under a HIGH WIND WATCH...already sustained at 40+ MPH and scheduled to have gusts of over 60 later this afternoon. All created by a huge Low pressure gradient up in Northern New England. The whole east coast of LI is under the wind watch. Check out the color enhanced satellite:

NE Winds

This from my local NWS:

...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS WIND GUSTS TO NEAR HURRICANE FORCE WILL DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON AND CONTINUE THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT... A STRONG INTENSIFYING LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM NORTH OF NEW YORK STATE WILL MOVE SLOWLY EAST AS A STRONG HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM OVER THE CENTRAL UNITED STATES BUILDS EAST. THE INCREASING PRESSURE GRADIENT WILL PRODUCE WIND GUSTS BETWEEN 60 AND 70 MPH THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH EARLY TONIGHT.

THESE HIGH WIND GUSTS...PERSISTING FOR AT LEAST 12 HOURS...WILL DOWN MANY TREES AND POWER LINES ACROSS THE REGION. PLEASE PREPARE FOR WIDESPREAD POWER OUTAGES DURING THIS TIME.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
RECON Cancelled...
      #13982 - Thu Nov 13 2003 10:42 AM

I guess they're not expecting too much out of the disturbance in the viscinity of Puerto Rico. Still, almost a foot of rain has already fallen and they're expecting much more. So it's no picnic...but no TD either.

WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS
CARCAH, TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI,FL.
1030 AM EST THU 13 NOVEMBER 2003
SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD)
VALID 14/1100Z TO 15/1100Z NOV 2003
TCPOD NUMBER.....03-165

I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS
1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS.
2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE.
3. REMARKS: ALL FLYING ON THE SUSPECT AREA NEAR PUERTO RICO CANCELLED BY NHC AT 13/1500Z.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1236
Loc: South Florida
Don't have to have a name
      #13983 - Thu Nov 13 2003 03:55 PM

To cause heartache and pain.

Do you?

Case in point... look at Puerto Rico.

No name... so we don't have an official system..

Tell that to the people who are drowning in rain

They don't really need a name

Seems like lots of weather everywhere...but here in Miami, sunny hot days.. could use some weather.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
97L.. and onward
      #13984 - Fri Nov 14 2003 05:16 PM

still a broad, multiple-centered low near puerto rico, with the strongest activity extending a few hundred miles to the northeast. some models show the low pressure persisting for a couple more days, but there isn't a big development bandwagon at this point. worth noting that some models are pointing to a low developing east of this area around the middle of next week, as a sort of post-frontal feature. just something to look for.. by this time of year not much more can be expected to happen.
HF 2015z14november


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
For What It's Worth (apologies to Stephen Stills)
      #13985 - Fri Nov 14 2003 05:26 PM

The east coast "storm" that passed through my area yesterday and today had stronger gusts than we got from Hurricane Floyd in '99 (he was just barely a hurric when he passed over). Mount Washington, in New Hampshire, recorded gusts that were the equivalent of CAT IV strength...and that was after their anomometer started working again. They estimate CAT V strength winds knocked it out! Lots of downed trees, tree limbs, scattered power outages. Not a lot of fun, as the wind chill was below freezing. Anyhoo...

still need to watch the tropics, but at this time of year, there's probably not going to be too much action.

--------------------------------------------------------------------------

"The weather is like the government, always in the wrong."
-- Jerome K. Jerome


--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
sunday noon
      #13986 - Sun Nov 16 2003 12:05 PM

the low pressure that has been persisting near the islands for days now has a fairly well-defined center north of the virgin islands, which has an ongoing convective burst. it's drifting south or southwest at the moment.. if the convection persists for long it may be back on the track of organization.
it's november 16th.. nothing else of note.
HF 1605z16november


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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
97L Invest
      #13987 - Mon Nov 17 2003 10:48 AM

It's back...

97L Invest

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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