A large well-defined tropical wave, currently passing through the northeast Caribbean Sea, has some potential for slow development over the next couple of days as the system moves to the west northwest. The system is in an area of light northeasterly shear which is forecast to weaken and move westward with the system. SST in the area is about 28C. I'd expect that the west northwest movement will eventually become more northwesterly on Monday. The wave is in an area that is usually favorable for development at this time of the season.
Cheers,
ED
I was thinking the wave probably would turn more westerly due to the building high pressure north of the system, which while building west, ought to be strong enough east of the wave not to allow it to kick out northwest at least until Thursday or so. But since you do this stuff for a living, I wanted to ask you to clue me in on what I was missing or is you thought the wave might hang out in the SW Atlantic longer than that.
Thanks,
Steve
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Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
Hi Steve:
Actually at the time, the upper air progs had pulled the western limit of the Atlantic ridge back to the east and the 300mb forecast showed a southerly flow on the west side of the ridge. I also didn't think that it would move quite as fast as it did. Progs still show the southerly flow so shear could keep this one from developing. Here is a link - they also have a 48 hour.
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