CFHC
Reged:
Posts: 162
Loc: East Central Florida
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Today is the first day of the 2004 Atlantic Hurricane season. The season runs from Today (June 1st) until November 30th. Although storms can form anytime during the season (and very rarely outside the season) most storms tend to form in August, September, and October.
In June storm formation is not the norm, but when they do, usually storms will form in the Western Caribbean or in the Gulf, and tend not to be on the high end.
We'll be watching here, as we expect a slightly higher than average season this year. This is the 9th year that this site has been running, and we hope to improve it some during this season. With new looks and more data available. As it still remains a hobby site for us, things probably will progress slowly. All the automated functionality from previous years remains.
As we open, there isn't much to write home about regarding activity. For once I don't expect a named storm until July this year. We will see.
We'll keep an eye out.
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
For a seasonal Forecast Update, see the Storm Forum.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, , , , , UKMET
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Tropical Weather Center, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Tropical Weather Watchers.Com (JasonM) Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
- [mike@flhurricane.com]
(minor correction)
Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Jun 01 2004 06:30 AM)
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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A new season is with us and let's see how it all pans out and the forecasts from the majority of the experts are right as they see an active season.Happy tracking to all here and be safe.It only takes one system to do all the damage so no matter how the season is in terms of activity we must be prepared.See all down the road. 
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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Usual shout out to everyone for the start of a new hurricane season. I'm looking forward to the return of all the usual suspects who stay silent in the offseason. You all know who you are.
For the last two years, I posted having the feeling going into each season that many of us would get a shot at seeing some tropical activity. 2004 should be no exception. I believe North America will will see several landfalling systems of varying intensities in 2004. And if you're in the South, you shouldn't have to travel far to see some action.
We've all got our forecasts up and have made our predictions. Most of us know what our supplies are and what we still need in order to finish off our checklists. June usually comes and goes, but I wouldn't stray too far away from my computer this June. The 2004 season got off to a bang several days ago when flashfloods from an unnamed storm caused by torrential rainfall killed upwards of 2000 people in the Dominican Republic and Haiti. That storm serves as a reminder that water kills. If you are under a serious evacuation order this year, you need to heed those warnings, or at least, make sure you've got enough booze to ride that sucker out. My family and I won't be leaving for anything sub-Category 4 this year. Of course & as always, if my wife decides the gettin's good and wants to take the kids, she's free to do so. But if we all agree to hang tough, we'll be partying it up enjoying feeder bands, squalls and all the chaos a storm can bring.
Cheers to everyone. May you get the rush this year without anything catastrophic happening. Peace
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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Steve
Senior Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1063
Loc: Metairie, LA
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One more thing for the kickoff thread. If the metro New Orleans area is threatened, any er is more than welcomed to ride out a storm at my place. I can't promise you'll live, but I can definitely promise you we'll catch a good drinking buzz. In honor of our own Frank P, I'm guzzling JD out of my Crown [tm] rocks glass.
Steve
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MF'n Super Bowl Champions
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LoisCane
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1237
Loc: South Florida
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Any small storm I stay home... a big one I go to my best friend's house (better shutters). Either way will be glad to see any of you.. or give directions to the best place for watching the storm surge. I'll be there... taking pictures until its no longer safe or they close the beach. Funny comment, remember them closing Miami Beach by Andrew... like everyone off the island... oh well... won't go there in this post but was amazing, you could hear the Ocean pounding the shore over the shrill of the roaring, piercing wind.
Back to 2004... my door is always open... Mi Casa es Su Casa if I got that right??
Woke up to drizzling rain this morning... still gray, still wet... funny how it started today like someone turned on the weather switch for the Hurricane Season.
Watched the update... funny, fun to see.. always annoyed they never say anything the first day..
Looking at the name list... interesting list... did I miss the B storm? What a list.. Otto.. makes you want to get to 15 just to have a Hurricane Otto. And, will Gaston go to New Orleans? Oh come on...I know someone here was thinking it. Bonnie.. okay, like Bonnie.. one of my favorites. Remember the last Bonnie dancing in the Bahamas..swirling round and round.
Good thing we don't get down to Shary or Walt cause bet they would be too much to handle... though one day with global warming (grin) I guess we will make it all the way down to Zev and then start over again.
Have a safe but fun hurricane season.. lets get going and I agree with Steve... all of you people who know who you are... stop hiding behind trees..
Bobbi
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http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/
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DustDuchess
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 28
Loc: Polk County Florida
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I am still watching that piece of energy that has made its way to the passage between Cuba and the Mexican coast line sort of (got to go back and reread my geography a bit. Anyway. I know it is nothing, but it has stayed together well and I am hoping will bring some much needed moisture to central florida. We are thirsty here.
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Good or bad, weather is all there is.
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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What about Frank P Steve have not heard from him in awhile .
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javlin
Weather Master
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Posts: 410
Loc: Biloxi,MS
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I am the same way Bobbi I always stay.The thing is that once you leave you never can get back in for some time.The house I am in now was my parents it road ouy Camille.We where in shelter at KAFB that night.Iwas here during Georges and the win howled much more than Elena.I watch Elena that from the windows with curiousity.I got to go out in the middle of the eye pick up debris.The firestation up the road kept us informed of how much time we had left in the eye.They would tell us over the loud speaker "three minutes before the eye passes".But Georges scared me.I use to tell Frank P that each storm has it's own personality.
Edited by javlin (Tue Jun 01 2004 09:57 AM)
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stormchazer
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 315
Loc: Central Florida
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Greetings Hurricane Watchers....I cannot offer the same accommodations as Lois or Steve in the event of a Weather emergency. Its not that I am a mean and unfriendly guy. I live in a mobile home, which in Hurricane terms translates to "potential flying debris". In the event of a Hurricane, my family and I will seek shelter in my parents cement block home.
Everyone stock the normal supplies and prepare for what I hope is a busy, with no major landfalling, hurricane season. Be safe!
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Jara
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Frank P
Veteran Storm Chaser
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Posts: 1299
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Good point Jav about hurricane having their own unique personalities, I agree with that statement 100% having experience my first one with Betsy in 65.
Hey Steve, my hurricane-tracking guru neighbor in N'Awlins, another hurricane season kicking off again, awesome!!! I sure am looking forward to another interesting year to say the least, and get some great observations and predictions from you and the rest of the gang that frequents the board. Also look forward to those great pixs from you if you get any hot tropical action over your way. You and I both have gotten our fair share the past couple of season haven’t we? Will the string continue? Time will tell! Oh Steve, also just bought a half gallon of Crown, thus completing my storm preparations…
To stay or not to stay? That could be the question of the day, as nothing seems rather too imminent in the tropics at the moment. Living on the beach in Biloxi my house sits 20 feet above sea level, so it would take a Cat 5 storm to put water in my house… and since I’ve already experience a Cat 5 with Camille (remember, you only get that Cat 5 once in a lifetime) then I’m not to worried about seeing another one again. Chances are that I’ll ride out any type storm on the coast, excluding perhaps another Cat 5. Family will evacuate for anything above a strong 2 (but also depends on what side of the storm I will be on, west side of the center with north winds are really not much of a deal for me unless we’re in the eye wall), but since I built the house I’m living in, I’m reasonably sure that unless one of them big oak in the front yard falls on it, I should be OK regardless of any expected wind velocities. However, I would never recommend anyone to ride out a hurricane, especially if they have not experienced a major hurricane. Heck, even Cat 2 can be rather hectic and scary too.
I am looking for another above average season, and as has been the case for the past two seasons, that direct hit for New Orleans, only because from a probability standpoint they are well past due… Miami Fl is also due (IMO), so those are my two ground zero areas for this season…(just another crap shoot prediction on my end) and it’s just a matter of time before a major storm hits a densely populated area, maybe this will be the year, hopefully not.
Anyone want a beach front view of a storm, call me as reservations must be made 48 hours in advance or else the police will probably not allow you access to highway 90! But bring proof of life insurance. All major credit cards accepted!
Hopefully it will be all in fun this year and no one will experience any major damage, I know I don’t want any more damage on my house from storms. But living on the coast is just part of the risk, and as we all know, sure worth it!
Edited by Ed Dunham (Wed Jun 02 2004 05:06 PM)
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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Happy Hurricane Season to all. Seems like just yesterday all the weather watchers were posting up a storm...oh, wait, that WAS yesterday.
Like Steve said a few posts ago, we should look forward to the usual suspects returning to the boards now. Shout out to Frank P., whom I'm sure will be with us shortly, as well as all the others whose names are too many to mention.
I know some of you, especially a couple who live on the gulf, in Old Metairie and Mobile (shout out to CAT V Rick), want to ride out a CAT III, I for one want no part of such...unless I'm in a real solid MOTEL, miles away from my home, with emergency generator power, drinkin' and watchin' the 20' waves; for that, I'd sit thru a CAT III. Wouldn't want to ride it out in my own home...
As far as Long Island, most of the pundits feel we'll be spared any hits this year, and that's good. I'm not particularly worried about where I live, as I'm about 9 miles inland. However, my Aunt owns a summer home in East Hampton, which is quite at risk for anything coming up the coast. I "volunteer" to watch the home whenever anything threatens us. If ever anything like the '38 LI Express were to recur, though, the house would be under 20' of water. I wouldn't be staying for that. If anyone is wondering where East Hampton is, it is located on the south fork of LI, about 10 miles from Montauk (which is the END) of LI. In fact, my new avitar is the Montauk Point lighthouse, which I visited for the umpteenth time this weekend, and took that very photo.
OK, enough babbling...everyone be safe and have your tracking charts at the ready. If all pans out, we'll be having an active year.
Cheers & Peace,
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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LI, you side pic or whatever its called is enormous again
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Rabbit
Weather Master
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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
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looks like a low trying to form at about 10N/78 or 79W
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/WATL/VIS/20.jpg
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Rabbit, it wasn't enormous on my screen, but I'll take your word on it...changed the avitar again just in case.
Been noticing that activity down near 10/79 also. SSTs quite warm in the area. Definitely bears watching. Good catch.
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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doug
Weather Analyst
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Posts: 1006
Loc: parrish,fl
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Greetings to all! Everybody is already alert and up and running I see.
The "circulation " Rabbit suggested seems to be over the isthmus or actually in the Pacific, if there at all...moving west...does not look threatening.
We could sure use a good depression however...less than 1" rain since May 1. EDS.
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doug
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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Nothing points to any sudden development in the Atlantic basin, but then systems can sometimes spin up fast.
On another note, there is a new invest up in the East Pacific - at the moment it looks quite impressive on satellite imagery. Could this be the beginnings of Blas?
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Steve Hirsch.
Unregistered
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Don't agree there LI Phil. IMO, this year could be the type of season that a couple of storms may ride the Bermuda/Central Atlantic high up the coast. Me thinks New England will see a hit of a TS/Cane. Agree with Frank P. that Miami +/- 300 miles will see a hit, as well as the central Gulf coast. Should be an exciting year though. And I think we'll see a June storm. Cheers!!
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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A June storm isn't that unlikely - SSTs appear to be warm enough to support a storm in the W. Caribbean and GOM. In fact, since 1990 only five years have gone without a named storm forming in June.
(1990, 1992, 1998, 2000, 2002)
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LI Phil
User
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
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Steve H.
I wouldn't mind a TS or weak CAT I, just don't want anything worse than that. Gloria was bad enough for me. Many trees down, no power for a week, huge cleanup. Give me a '91 Bob, that I can deal with.
LI Phil
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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4
BUCKLE UP!
"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"
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James88
Weather Master
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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
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From what I can gather, the last storm to affect your neck of the woods was Floyd in '99. Did that have much of an effect on your area?
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