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News Talkback >> 2002 News Articles and Talkback

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CFHCAdministrator



Reged: Sun
Posts: 143
Loc: East Central Florida
2 Weeks
      #156 - Sun May 19 2002 10:10 AM

Two weeks to go and the "wave-mongering" has already started (And I love it!). You know it's close to hurricane season now. The Gulf of Mexico, although a few models have suggested something occuring, is probably not going to have something tropical in there.

If it were to happen anytime this year, that would be the place to look, but upper winds aren't going to allow anything of significance to get going down there. Along with many of the negative factors, we'll have to keep looking elsewhere. It isn't impossible, but I just don't see it this time.

I will be gone (LA and NY) for a week and a half, back just in time for Hurricane Season to start. When the season starts, I'll give my own amateur outlook for this year's season.

I'll be watching the tropics as always.

Don't take my word for it...

NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor

Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
AVN, ECMWF, GFDL, MM5, NOGAPS, UKMET


Other commentary at Mike Anderson's East Coast Triopical Weather Center, Accuweather's Joe Bastardi, Hurricane City, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, Even more on the links page.

- [mac]


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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
Re: 2 Weeks
      #157 - Sun May 19 2002 10:32 AM

Yes , Could turn out to be a very interesting seson.

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: 2 Weeks
      #158 - Sun May 19 2002 10:51 AM

Well, it looks like anyone who says no Gulf development will be right. The system lost all of its convection last night, something that TRUE tropical cyclones in development don't do. Well, it also looks like anyone who says this hurricane season won't be active is going to be DEAD wrong. This little GOMEX area that has sparked our interest should be a sign of things to come. I do believe this hurricane season will be very vigorous, especally in the Carribbean and Gulf regions. Since these storms here have a typically better chance of making landfall than CV's do, this will be the area to watch. And the very warm waters and lower than normal sea level pressures only make conditions more favorable. Don't count out Cape Verde season, either. But I do have to say that the anomalies have been awfully cold over there the past 4-6 weeks or so. Also notice (as many have been saying) that Florida has NEVER gone more than 10 years without a major hurricane strike. Well, this August will be the tenth aniversery of Andrew's little tour of South Florida. Also, with 1969 being an analog for this year, and being that 1969 had high amounts of Carribbean activity, I am concerned about the fact that we could get another Camille type storm cranking this year with similar conditions in place. Of course, what it Camille hadn't went straight North into Louisiana, what if it would have had more of a NE component to it? And could history repeat itself this summer? More to come later, and all thoughts on this are welcome.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 2 Weeks
      #159 - Sun May 19 2002 02:14 PM

Boy,all of a sudden the talk on here has come to a stand still since the gulf stuff didn't pan out.It will be a long while before anything happens so I guess this site will be pretty much non-active from now on.I also think Joe B. is over-rated,even though he doesn't think so.

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: 2 Weeks
      #160 - Sun May 19 2002 02:20 PM

Joe Bastardi is definitely over-rated. I agree with what a lot of people say about him...he'll jump on anything he sees in the tropics yet those features don't develop 95% of the time. I've also looked at the SST maps for the Atlantic, and the water temps are only averaging 78-80 degrees in the Eastern Atlantic. I'd like any possible thoughts on this, because I am not sure if those temperature readings are normal for this time of the year. We really don't even have to look at this area until early August at the earliest, so there's still plenty of time for warming. Once again, I'd like some thoughts on this. The Gulf system didn't pan out and I really didn't expect it to, but it sure is interesting for this time of the year.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 2 Weeks
      #161 - Sun May 19 2002 07:25 PM

GUlf system isn't (wasn't) expected for another five days or so, at least the EC's view. Will still be interesting to see what the model shows tonight, as it initially had it in the western GOM, then central, and last night near western Cuba then off the FL coast. AVN and MRF have similar features, so development is possible. Nothing of consequence was expected from the convection and frontal passage this weekend. The potential development was from the split trough to happen after the front washes out and the high moves into the western Atlantic, later this week...Cheers!!

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: 2 Weeks
      #162 - Sun May 19 2002 08:01 PM

Could that split have already started to happen because I see a blow up of convection right around the tip of the Yucatan? Is there still a shot that if something did form that it would come west towards Texas or is that totally out of the question? I guess the bottom line is that this next week could be a very interesting one!

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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Re: 2 Weeks
      #163 - Sun May 19 2002 08:25 PM

I can't believe it! I'm such a dumbass! I thought we were going to get something going from the convection with the front that was in the Gulf! Talk about confusion. Must be the rust on me, after it's been 6 months since I've payed any real attention to the tropics. So, perhaps there will be something after all. Now since I know what the heck is going on, I'd say watch Yucatan Peninsula or just off of western Cuba coast for any type of low pressure formation. NWS Melbourne said the system would stay south due to the high pressure that will set in over much of the Eastern U.S. We'll just have to see.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 2 Weeks
      #165 - Sun May 19 2002 11:54 PM

Well, tonight's EC has a low off the FL east coast mid-week, but a weak one at that, so let's keep watching. But heck it's early yet. Kevin, don't beat yourself up. I should kick my own ass for jumping on models already! Kinda strange out there weatherwise being we're just two weeks from the official start. 23 degrees in corn country?? BBRRR. Cheers!!

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Doug Tampa
Unregistered




Re: 2 Weeks
      #166 - Mon May 20 2002 12:18 PM

still trying to figure this new system out..it continues to show me as anonymous (not a bad thing), and unregistered, (not true)....any way...this weekend's system was a classic trough which cut way down and tapped the carribean moisture...pressures go to the mid 29.80's as it passed through...it will be weeks before anything significicant develops, and then it will be in the w.carribean...more later. EDS.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 2 Weeks
      #167 - Mon May 20 2002 12:58 PM

Doug,

When you first open the sites main page. Look at the upper right corner of the page. If it say's Login up there that means your not logged on. IF you do logon and want the computer to remember you each visit make sure you check the box at login when putting in your username and password. This is safe and your cookies need to be enabled for this to work. It is a nice feature and keeps track of messages you have read and those you have not read. Also prevents you from having to log in everytime you come to the site.
Thanks enjoy....

John


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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 2 Weeks
      #168 - Mon May 20 2002 02:13 PM

I See this is a login BUG. Mike always leaves town at the wrong time

If your having problems with the system when you login and it logs you out when you swtich pages please go here

Anyhow I will try to have this fixed soon!

John C
CFHC

Edited by John C (Mon May 20 2002 07:13 PM)


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HURRICANELONNY
Weather Guru


Reged: Sat
Posts: 100
Loc: HOLLYWOOD,FL.
Re: 2 Weeks
      #169 - Mon May 20 2002 03:44 PM

NOAA just came out with their preliminary prediction for this season. I don't have time to talk about it but they say average to a little above average. 9-13 storms and possiblely 3 majors. 9-13 is not really nailing it down and I couldn't find their reasons for their predictions. So if anyone finds their reasoning post it.

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Anonymous
Unregistered




Re: 2 Weeks
      #170 - Mon May 20 2002 05:31 PM

Looks like we may have our first EPAC depression out there,; will there be one in the western Caribbean soon??? Lots of moisture there...and convection building, but shear. Models NOGAPS, CMC, AVN, UKMET) are showing a strong low developing east of the Bahamas intesifying, then moving NNE. GGEM shows 1007 mb low near the NE Yucatan @ 144. ??? In the meantime, the rough seas off the East coast of FLorida are driving SSTs down (that sure is a late cold front for late May) to below 80, but the sun is strong so the warmer SSTs will win out, but they are temporarily down as upwelling is occurring. Strange weather we're having ain't it. Cheers!! Steve H.

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: 2 Weeks
      #172 - Mon May 20 2002 07:20 PM

Can there be any kind of development from the convection in the Caribbean?It looks like the shearing is not letting up so I would say no.Does anyone know when the shearing may let up? The way it stands now it doesn't look like there would be anything that could survive the westerlies long enough to be able to creep into the gulf.Any feed back would be much appreciated.

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Rad
Weather Guru


Reged: Thu
Posts: 173
Loc: St. Pete Fl. {27.8N 82.7W}
Re: 2 Weeks
      #173 - Mon May 20 2002 07:31 PM

I dont know Shawn but it is looking pretty interesting out there.

--------------------
RIDE 2 LIVE 2 RIDE


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Kevin
Weather Master


Reged: Fri
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
Noaa 2002 Hurricane Forecast thoughts.
      #177 - Mon May 20 2002 08:40 PM

Well, 9-13 tropical cyclones, 6-8 hurricanes, and 2-3 majors. As far as the overall number they forecasted, I believe they are a little low to include the possibility of 9 storms. This is due to uncertainty in El Nino's development. 11-14 looks more reasonable. Hurricane counts are low due to the lower numbers of overall TC's forming, obviously. More named storms usually means more hurricanes. 2-3 majors could be reasonable, then again with a puny El nino in place, maybe not. Look for them to raise the numbers in early August, perhaps. Time will tell!

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ShawnS
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 226
Loc: Pearland,Tx
Re: Noaa 2002 Hurricane Forecast thoughts.
      #178 - Mon May 20 2002 08:54 PM

It looks like the flow in the gulf and the Caribbean is changing from a straight west/east flow to more of a se/ne flow.The activity in the Caribbean has decreased as the night sets in.I'm curious as to what conditions are in favor of development and what ones are not.The only thing I can see that is in favor is the SST's.Anyone else have an opinion on this?

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Anonymous
Unregistered




mongertime
      #179 - Tue May 21 2002 01:23 AM

nothing going on. figures, its only may 21st. i guess it is worth a glance that a few models are showing dreamcast subtropical lows here and there (the 16day mrf wants to pop a couple of rogue type post frontal lows this week and next), but remember, and i reiterate, its only may 21st. every year models start seeing things early in the season that never happen, and there's still a lot of subtropical jet out there to rip everything up, so formation in the next few days is extremely unlikely. this is a year where early season formation is expected, but remember may storms only form once every decade and a half or so.
good to see that my 12-8-4 is still close to the NOAA forecast. ten more days and we get the new graycast. by the way, joe b isnt always right, but read his column and you'll learn a lot.


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Anonymous
Unregistered




a bit more
      #180 - Tue May 21 2002 02:03 AM

want some eye candy? go look at the hpc models page and watch the frontal tail over the nw caribbean. it just sits there and sits there until...

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