We are no longer writing discussions on tropical depression Bertha. The center of circulation is moving well inland and the heaviest rains should begin to diminish later today.
Now the attention shifts to the east coast...
Latest Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB) numbers is now up to 2.0 for the low off the east coast. In addition, the National Hurricane Center will be sending out a reconnaissance aircraft into the low pressure system tomorrow to look for any signs of development. The low is becoming quite impressive on satellite imagery. In fact, we will likely have our next named storm within 24 hours.
The majority of the forecast models take this low south and then NE out to sea. This track seems fairly reasonable since a high over the east will block the low from moving west. In addition, an upper level troough is moving south and is expected to pull the low northeast. Now there is always the chance that the trough could miss the low but it does seem unlikely at this point. However, the east coast should continue closely monitor this developing low. Bermuda and Newfoundland will also have to watch this low as they may be in the path of this developing storm.
The rest of the Atlantic basin is quiet. There is nothing else in the Gulf of Mexico or Caribbean Sea. There is one weak wave passing near Jamaica but it won't do a whole lot. There is another tropical wave just east of the Leeward Islands that will give them some showers. If we look way out into the eastern Atlantic, you will find a wave with a small flare up of convection. However, this wave is moving into an area of sinking air. Therefore, tropical development is not expected.
The next update will be posted between 5-7PM central time.
Do feel we will have are next depression late this afternoon or evening. Surface analysis shows pressure 1012 mb but recon may find lower. Satellite loops show system winding up off SC. Models are in good agreement on taking it southeast then northeast as an strong trough for this time of the year plows into eastern seaboard. In fact models bring front through florida? This seems overdone. But trough will be close enough to pull this system northeast. Areas which maybe in the path would be possibly Bermuda and newfoundland down the road. Also believe this may become a tropical storm and " possibly" are first weak hurricane. I hate to go this far out but just my prediction.
satellite and radar imagery and reports from an Air Force reserve hurricane hunter aircraft indicate that the low pressure area off the Carolina coast has become a tropical depression.
-------------------- Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
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