Anonymous
Unregistered
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This has the most potential IMO. This is what was left of the energy from the 1011 low that dissipated I believe. It is also out of the influence of the mid-latitude low at about 34/50, which hopefully is departing, as it is getting convection near the center, and actually could develop itself (fish) as the models have been sayoing. That would be good for the basin,as it will then move off to the NE. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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http://www.srh.noaa.gov/data/SJU/AFD/SJUAFDSJU.1.txt
At least the San Juan NWS office says that this wave is the most developed this year so let's see what this wave will do but it is now at the most warm waters area east of the ialands that are west of 50w.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Where is San Juan NWS saying this? Not in the link provided or anywhere else on their site...
CC
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Cycloneye
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 373
Loc: Puerto Rico
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I took that from he very early discussion at 3:00 am but the new one is more short of the early morning one but anyway this wave will be good news for some of the islands because they are in a drought so for that part that is good.There is some south shear at it not allowing it to organize but if shear relaxes then maybe but a long shot for development at this time.
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My 2004 hurricane season forecast=13/8/3
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Anonymous (HF)
Unregistered
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status of everything: 35w wave is high amplitude but short on convection. pretty good turning with it still well off the .. needs convection now.
53w wave has an e/w trough feature with it, maybe. a max on that turning axis might get a storm started. environment aloft of both of these is ok, not great.
still want my fish spinner up near bermuda. taking forever, still not certain.
the w carib system should have a pretty good amt of its energy get into the BOC, at least cause a lot of convection tonight into tomorrow. env aloft is ok, things can get going pretty fast down there when the pattern is right. no SFC feature of consequence though.
ok, nuff said. time to drive to . 380 miles. bummer.
HF 1601z22august
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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Don't see any development indicated by either the models or satellite pix. Lot of nothing still going on. Shear is hitting the wave at 52W, inhiting any development right now. It seems stronger than the AVN shear map. Conditions aren't that great in the Atlantic basin right now, despite what Mr. Bastardi says. Doesn't look that great to me for the next 5 days. Cheers!! Steve H.
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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there is nothing that will develop thru Sunday, a tropical or
nontropical low near Bermuda might organize off a old front by then. chances of a Dp by then is 0%.
Only 2 systems will form off cape verde this season. Too
much subsidence in the central tropical atlantic. I have made
little to no posts on my hurricaneupdatecenter since I only
post of system when they form. I still dont expect more then
8 storms this season, 4 in late sept thru oct. scottsvb
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Kevin
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 524
Loc: EC Florida
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Possibilites: We're running sorta low on these at this time, all of the waves in the Atlantic look convection devoid despite pretty decent circulations. The wave at 30W has a circulation that looks like a tropical storm, but convection is minimal. All 1/10 chances.
Wave train: There are bombs over Africa at this time, but this means nothing it appears. Every sinlgle wave this year has fizzled come Atlantic waters. However, this wave train should moisten things up significantly and perhaps crank a storm or two up further west.
Mighty September: Could this September be wild like last year? Certainly, and in fact, I believe it will be. Except this year I expect about 4-6 storms this September, but a good percentage of these could make landfall in FLORIDA. Why? With the trof anchored in the means at around 85W and much of the activity expected to form at 60-70W, we could see many storms go south of Florida while developing and then recurve into the peninsula or panhandle. How much shear there is will determine the strength of much the activity...but with the pattern setting up like it is I believe Florida and maybe the northern GOMEX could be in for some trouble come September and early October.
Anybody care to dip their feet into the lava pool?
Kevin 
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Anonymous-Troy
Unregistered
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with all these waves and lows being squashed or wrung out in the Atlantic I am begining to wonder if its that ole Dyno-Gel.
been a long waveless summer...
Troy 
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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well the gulf of mexico will be a bigger player from late sept thru the month of Oct. It will bring alot of rain for northern and eastern gulf coast states. Bermuda high has been mostly over the mid atlantic states and at times non existant with Azores high being stronger then normal. With this affect, only 2 cape verdes will surface up in Sept,, 1 of these will threaten the NE Windwards and Puerto Rico and Bahamas. Other will turn up E of Bermuda. Also with more of a el Nino affect coming into Oct and the winter season a more southern jet will come into affect in early oct pushing moisture and system up from the western carribean. I also expect one of the first cold fronts in later Oct to turn into a system and head across S florida later in the month. Overall still around 7-8 storms and 3 hurricanes, 1 severe maybe 2.
Watch this pattern develop in the next 2 weeks just after labor day. scottsvb hurricaneupdatecenter
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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But the game aint in Tally or are you getting an early start for the weekend after next? LOL The way things have gone i wonder if we are gonna have a year of where when things start to happen they will happen in bunches. I remember a few years ago when the view on the sat. had like 5 systems (hurricanes/storms/and depressions)all lined up. can't remember the year but it was awsome looking. I recall John Hope saying it doesn't happen often. They were all coming off Africa just one after the other. I think one came to the eastern U. S. and the others went to the north and didn't touch land.
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57497479
Weather Master
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Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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Well I certainly believe in weather patterns setting up and it is very clear that the Atlantic is getting ready to do it's thing, however I don't think it is quite ready yet. As I have said in my past posts I really don't look to see a whole lot of activity until Sept. and I still believe that most of this activity will be on our back door. Maybe that is why I thought that the recent convection in the W Caribbean might get going (you know one of those situations that you sit back and ask your self how did that happen?) Any way that little piece of energy that did not make it to the BOC is again a pattern that I believe that is in the process of getting set up as we speak. As far as CV is concerned activity will be limited. The ridging will help to pave the way and we will take all the help we can to eliminate the shear and subsidence out there. GO BUY YOUR POPCORN BOYS AND GIRLS SHOW TIME IS ABOUT TO BEGIN!!! TONI 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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ZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZZ
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57497479
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 414
Loc: W. Central Florida
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OH, STOP IT BRUCE TODAY IS YOUR BIRTHDAY! CHEER UP, YOU WILL JUST HAVE TO WAIT FOR YOUR BELATED BIRTHDAY GIFT.
TONI 
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TONI
All of us could take a lesson from the weather:
It pays no attention to criticism
My 2003 Hurricane guess 13-9-3
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Bruce
Weather Guru
Reged:
Posts: 139
Loc: Palm Bay, Florida
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I agree Toni, Dean formed on August 22nd, and by September 21st Humberto had formed. The next Four weeks should tell us how this season will end up. I do think we will have more land falling Hurricanes or Tropical Storms this year than last. We have never went Three years without a Hurricane hitting somewhere in the US. I still think the East Coast of Florida will be hit this year. If the Sea Turtles have it right, ( nesting very high on the dunes this year). I have my POPCORN ready!! Let the show begin. 
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Cocoa Beach
Unregistered
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What if they threw a Hurricane Season...
and NOBODY came.
I'm sure there is a lot of head scratching going on.
Less than a 100 days left in the season and we have had
3 little TS. Have we ever gone through a season with out any
Huricanes in the GOM & Western Carribean?
Or are we going to extend our hurricane season into Christmas?
With each passing year I spend on Cocoa Beach, the weather
is becoming more weird every season.
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Alex K
Unregistered
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There is definitely a circulation associated with the wave that left Africa a day or two ago. Convection is sparse, but there is more than there was last evening. What is the developemant chance?
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Anonymous
Unregistered
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I don't want to be a party pooper on this whole Andrew Birthday Party going on all over the media and weather sites but I don't think I have much left to be said. What more can be said? I have spoken for years about how it felt to be here and the night before, the shopping, my friends who had their houses destroyed, going without electric for over a week in Miami far from the eye wall and by the way my mother lived on South Beach and she went for almost a MONTH without her phone being put back in service although Collins Avenune had service within a day. You never hear about other areas and what a mess it was to clean up areas that weren't in the strongest winds. There was barely any rain. I've spoken for hours to way too many people and its all in the past. I'm tired of it. I'm almost sick of it. These media feeding frenzies on the radio are tiring me out. The storm was upgraded and that I think was right and exciting, happening news not retelling the same tired story. We are in a real dull dudd of a season right now, yet it could get busier in Sept and October. Could, wish it would for lots of reasons.
Someone asked me today at work "how is tomorrow going to affect you?" and I just stared. I couldn't think of anything to say. It was ten years ago. Show me a storm bearing down on South Florida and I'll think about Andrew. For now I'm going to relax tomorrow, enjoy the day, read or rest.
If you ask me if I would like to sit around and talk about Andrew all day for the next two days.. nope, not interested. I'd rather spend the day with someone I love watching the calm blue soft water of the Atlantic, under the strong high pressure that wraps above us. Go dancing. Love. Listen to great music. Enjoy the sunrise and the sunset with someone special. Read a good book. Take a good shower. Laugh with a best friend.
I do not want to spend my life reliving the past and talking about the big one that got away or relive thoughts and memories from long ago when I could be living today, enjoying today and hoping next time the big one comes through that we will all make it safely through the storm.
I agree with Zzzz person. Bring on the storms or let me go back to sleep, and dream only of the future not the past.
So, sue me if I am a party pooper.. I'm just not interested.
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