Ed Dunham
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)
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Loc: Melbourne, FL
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Early this Monday morning the basin is quite active - literally from Atlanta to Greece. Tropical Storm Jeanne now well north of Hispaniola and plodding north at 8mph. Jeanne has slowly reorganized over the past 24 hours and now has sustained winds near 60mph, however, she still lacks a distinctive core, so any additional intensification should be slow. Movement may be just east of due north and I'm beginning to think that she may remain at a safe distance from Florida. She'll be meandering well to the east for another week, so plenty of time to keep an eye on her.
For technical clarity, the center of the remnants of are moving west southwest toward Atlanta - and still carrying 30 knots of wind. A piece of that energy (an old outer band?) is racing toward the central Florida coast with gusty winds and showers on Monday.
Major Hurricane Karl in the central Atlantic is heading for Cat IV and is expected to remain at sea.
Tropical Depression 13 is located fairly close to Karl to the east southeast and should become Tropical Storm Lisa on Monday or early Tuesday. Its track is now anticipated to be more westward - as Karl pulls north and northeast, he will regenerate a small ridge between himself and the future Lisa.
And if that isn't enough, I'm wondering if I'm looking at a developing tropical cyclone in the central Mediterranean Sea? They do happen, but rarely! Only visual references are METEOSAT and Navy Eastern Atlantic. I guess that it would be part of the Atlantic Basin - where else would you put it???
ED
Event Related Links
Jeanne Models -- This image animated over time
Karl Models -- This image animated over time
Lisa Models -- This image animated over time
General Links
NRL Monterey Marine Meteorology Division Forecast Track of Active Systems (Good Forecast Track Graphic and Satellite Photos)
Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.
Follow worldwide SST evolution here:
Global SST Animation
NASA GHCC Interactive Satellite images at:
North Atlantic Visible (Daytime Only), Infrared, Water Vapor
LSU Sat images
Some forecast models:
NGM, AVN, MRF, ETA ECMWF
AVN, , , JMA, , UKMET
DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
Multi-model plots from WREL
Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,
Even more on the links page.
Edited by MikeC (Tue Sep 21 2004 09:35 AM)
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Storm Cooper
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Loc: Panama City , FL
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Thanks for a new one Ed, we tried but things happen you know.
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Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1
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ShanaTX
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 226
Loc: Texas
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In the Med? The world sure is weird this year.
From the previous thread: (and NWS)
Quote:
THE WEATHER DISTURBANCE FORMERLY KNOWN AS
I'm sorry, does want to be known as some unpronouncable symbol now?
And that BEAR WATCH stuff out of the Houston office...they can't seriously be talking about the appearance of that Russian Bear of a hurricane formerly known as can they?  
'shana
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Posts: 1710
Loc:
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Nice to see the site back -- now let's hope we don't end up with 5 systems at once out there! Still don't given the remnants of much hope, but there is a small low-level circulation around. The wave behind Lisa has a much better shot, though.
And boy, is Lisa a small storm...
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Glad to see the site back up tonite.
Rainy day here in Port St. Lucie.with more than four inches so far today at my house. A lot of damaged homes from not at all ready for this kind of rain.
Radar shows a swirl tonite in rain just east of Ft. Lauderdale. Looks like some kind of center might be ready to form over those warm Gulfstream waters, but doubt would recognize it officially until it is into the GOM.
Hurric
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Posts: 116
Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Clark, given the conditions around S. Florida today what do you think would be the biggest drawback for something forming when this area moves into the se GOM?
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Wxwatcher2
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 337
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Some rain in the N. Orlando area most of the day today.
No wind or lightning, just tropical moisture.
Remnants of ......
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Loc: Parrish Fl
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This board is quiet tonight! 
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52255225
Weather Guru
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Posts: 166
Loc: Parrish Fl
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no clue why my post is way down at the bottom!!
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Posts: 151
Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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It has rained here in Port st Lucie almost all day. Right now it is raining very hard and the wind has picked up considerably
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Lake Toho - Kissimmee
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 317
Loc: Kissimmee, Florida on Lake Toh...
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Wind is really bad here in Kissimmee and also rain.. Hope the plastic on my roof stays on..
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Dream like you will live forever.. Live like there is no tommorow.. Darwin Rules !!
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DebbiePSL
Weather Guru
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Loc: Saint Marys Georgia
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I hope so too for your sake. I've had enough already. Is all this from ?
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leetdan
Weather Guru
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Loc: Osceola County
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Good to see the site back up, I'll post some of the thoughts I had over the day...
First, one thing that's been consistent across models, from onward, is the general overestimation of the canadian ridge's effect on the storms. was supposed to be bumped back completely, yet it drove right past (only losing a small chunk of storm activity we saw in the peninsula today). This same system was supposed to drive Jeanne west, then to only hold it stationary, and now to loop it around. Based on the complete lack of a strong effect on , I'm really starting to think Jeanne is not going to slow down or loop, but rather zip NE, in close proximity to Karl.
That said, maybe it's time for a poll... how many hours/days until we see some Fujiwhara action? With Jeanne and Karl edging towards each other, Lisa close behind Karl, and the wave behind Lisa being quickly developed in a few models, it seems to me like it's just a matter of time before we get to marvel at these storms mixing with each other.
Should be a fun, hopefully harmless week of hurricane watching 
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[witty phrase here]
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BillD
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Loc: Miami
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NRL Monterey has listed the circulation that is now moving more or less over Ft. Lauderdale as an invest. As well as the wave behind Lisa. Going to get busy here soon.
Also I grabbed this image of the system in the Mediterranean that Ed was talking about. Right now it doesn't look so good, but this sure looks like a tropical system to me.
Bill
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Clark
Meteorologist
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Loc:
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Shear -- 30kt -- as well as a bunch of dry air to the north of the storm. The trough to the west is eventually going to push east, at least to some degree, which won't aid any development. Plus, there's just not much there...there's a small low-level circulation and a small amount of upper energy, but that's it. SSTs in the Gulf haven't recovered from the first go-around either...though are at least still marginal.
Bottom line...I still think whatever this is, or not, doesn't have a great shot.
The Mediterranean storm is probably a hybrid system, maybe a subtropical depression/storm, but nothing very strong. Might try to see if I can get a phase analysis done on it tomorrow.
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Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)
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Hurric
Weather Guru
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Loc: Port St. Lucie, Fl
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Thanks Clark, I always look forward to reading your posts. They always seem well thought out and easy to understand, which is Helpful for those who are trying hard to take our knowledge of weather to a higher level.
When the wind is gusty and it has been raining off and on all day it is easy to get the feeling that something is forming.
I took a look and can see the shear and dry air. Makes it easy to see why it would be a long shot to amount to much. But who knows, in a season like this almost anything seems possible.
Hurric
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scottsvb
Weather Master
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Loc: fl
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Glad site is back up. OZ models coming in,,,, first couple models showing now a turn to the W and hitting or brushing Freeport Bahama and threatning Florida and the SE coast. is still the outliner but does not take her out till after 96 hours,,,meantime it has her wander around 68-70W. I have not seen the UKMET yet and that was the model that kept her moving back to the west the most.
Son of remenents will continue to the western gulf over the next 3days. Trough should bypass the system to the north and might push it down to the Bay of Campeache but that is 5 days out as it could just as well move into Mexico or Texas. If it does move south it will be in a good area to develop during the upcoming weekend. Karl will pull just a tad more NW and be closer to 54W and head N and increase speed feeling the trough,,,,Lisa I wont comment on yet, but I highly doubt she will have any affect on the US. Right now from Sept 20th on.. anything that is north of 18N and east of 65W and moving more then wnw will be picked up by the westerlys that generally move down more often to near 20-25N. A system would generally have to be under 15N and be moving W towards the western carribean to be in a good position to come NW and threaten the eastern gulf.
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Second Shift
Verified CFHC User
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Posts: 14
Loc: Iowa
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Glad you guys are back up! Question-is all of this tropical activity the reason the weather in Iowa has been so boring lately (80-85 degrees, sunshine virtually every day the last 3 weeks). Any fronts have given us a look see, then fallen apart!
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Corndogs for everyone! Go Hawkeyes!
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
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Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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At 630 am EDT weather service Doppler radar indicated rainfall amounts between 4 to 6 inches with isolated 6 to 8 inches have fallen between Boynton Beach and Delray Beach from the training showers and thunderstorms. Law enforcement has also reported that A1A between Boynton Beach and Delray Beach... and the intersection at Linton and Congress were impassable as cars were being flooded.
Additional rainfall amounts between 2 to 3 inches can still occur with the training showers and thunderstorms over these areas during the next hour or so. Therefore... a urban flood advisory has been extended to include all of Palm Beach County until 815 am EDT.
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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Rasvar
Weather Master
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Loc: Tallahassee, Fl
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Miss a day and things stay the same. Only thing I do know is that I heard in a phone interview that the said if the remnants of become a system, it would be renamed becuase it is not the full system that was . Might be old news here.
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Jim
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