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Low Chance (10%) area being watched near of the Turks and Caicos islands heading away from land. Unlikely to develop.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 268 (Idalia) , Major: 268 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 268 (Idalia) Major: 268 (Idalia)
 


News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


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Winding Down - Almost
      #34415 - Wed Nov 10 2004 05:09 AM

Things have been pretty quiet for awhile - and most of us are grateful for that after such a hectic summer. An old frontal boundary is interacting with an upper level low and firing convection near 15N 65W. A small chance that a tropical or subtropical cyclone could develop in the northeast Caribbean Sea in the next day or two. Shear is on the increase though, so the odds are slim for any organized development. Even without development, heavy rainfall is likely in the northeast islands. The rest of the basin is quiet.
ED

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Caribbean Weather Reports

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General Links
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Check the Storm Forum from time to time for comments on any new developing system.

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DoD Weather Models (NOGAPS, AVN, MRF)
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Other commentary at Independentwx.com, Robert Lightbown/Crown Weather Tropical Update Accuweather's Joe Bastardi (now subcriber only unfortunately), Hurricane Alley North Atlantic Page, Hurricanetrack.com (Mark Sudduth), HurricaneVille, Cyclomax (Rich B.), Hurricane City , mpittweather , WXRisk, Gary Gray's Millennium Weather, storm2k, Barometer Bob's Hurricane Hollow, Snonut,

Even more on the links page.


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LI Phil
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"N"Otto [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34416 - Wed Nov 10 2004 03:32 PM

TWO & TWD both indicate this system "could" develop, and there are still plans to send in recon---if necessary. Doesn't look all that impressive on sat, but it is producing life threatening rains for Hispaniola & PR & the Leewards...from the TWD:

"REGARDLESS OF DEVELOPMENT...LOCALLY HEAVY RAINFALL...FLOODING...AND MUD SLIDES ARE LIKELY OVER SECTIONS OF HISPANIOLA...PUERTO RICO...AND THE NORTHERN LEEWARD ISLANDS DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. LATEST SATELLITE RAINFALL ESTIMATES INDICATE VALUES OVER 11 INCHES PER DAY."

I guess after their May debacle, NHC is going to stay on top of this one.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: "N"Otto [Re: LI Phil]
      #34418 - Wed Nov 10 2004 03:45 PM

two systems
look very closely at the SW Caribbean and the NE Atlantic


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James88
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Re: "N"Otto [Re: Rabbit]
      #34419 - Wed Nov 10 2004 06:20 PM

That little area just off the Columbian coast is looking pretty well organised. Does anyone think that anything will come of it?

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Bloodstar
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Re: "N"Otto [Re: James88]
      #34420 - Wed Nov 10 2004 06:41 PM

Quote:

That little area just off the Columbian coast is looking pretty well organised. Does anyone think that anything will come of it?




Too close to the coast I would believe. The storm in the NE Atlantic looks kinda nifty, but probably won't amount to anything (though counter point to that would be Olga in 2001). The mass of showers near Puerto Rico is still looking pretty ragged though there seems to be a low level circulation around 14N 70W from the visible imagry.

Don't think it's worth classifying though, not right now at least.

Mark


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James88
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Re: "N"Otto [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34421 - Wed Nov 10 2004 06:50 PM

You may well be right. While there are examples of storms forming and even intensifying near to the South American coast, it is comparitively rare. However, since 2004 appears to be the Chinese Year of The Unexpected, we should probably watch it for a little while longer.

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bobbi
Unregistered




interesting sat to see [Re: James88]
      #34422 - Wed Nov 10 2004 07:14 PM

shows all sides of the tropicsl

nifty ne system (like it)

area off of the coast of SA

caribbean mess

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html


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LI Phil
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91L [Re: bobbi]
      #34423 - Wed Nov 10 2004 10:06 PM

Interesting little late day flare up. Bobbi's link above also shows it.

They cancelled the recon for today but still have flights scheduled for tomorrow...if necessary. The two distinct blobs of convection are firing up, but I'm not seeing much, if any, rotation...it's gonna be a mess for the leewards, for sure, but I'd say the chances of this gaining TD status are somewhere between slim and none.

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
10/1745 UTC 14.3N 69.6W TOO WEAK 91L
09/1745 UTC 13.0N 72.6W TOO WEAK 91L

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
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Re: 91L [Re: LI Phil]
      #34424 - Thu Nov 11 2004 12:20 AM

Very odd weather pattern, that doesn't seem to add up. Let me explain, some places you have very short amplitude while in other places you have very board amplitude and, sometimes very close to eachother. There is something called Fractual geometry, which is pretty much taking pieces of other gemotric figures and making new ones, and figuring out realtionships between the two. This is how we get teleconnections folks and some other well known realtionships. Trofs and ridges are parabola's and have significant patterns to them because they are geometric figures, which I'm not going to teach advance geometry. The point I'm trying to make is that I'm seeing some weird things in odd places....

The current disturbance will not form anything significant, I can say that with some confidence. Though anyone in the northern Leewards, get a one-way ticket out of there now before it is too late. The tropics are pretty much dead, to put it simply. I'm done for the rest of the season and going to abstain from saying something will develop, just to see if it does. This website has been great to me, and I would like to thank all the people who made it happen...have a great winter.

With all due respect
Keith Roberts

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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91L & 92L [Re: Keith234]
      #34426 - Thu Nov 11 2004 04:52 PM

Hmmmm...2 Invests on the 11th Day of the 11th Month at just after the 11th Hour...

Interesting...guess the basin isn't quite ready to surrender.

I, for one, am willing to sign an armistice to end this season.

I have the day off from work so I can hit the mall for all the sales!!! This is almost as good as the Memorial Day promotions!

To any and all Veterans, like Skeet & John C., thank you for your service to this country. Pray for our troops in Iraq, Afghanistan, and in all parts of the world. And remember, freedom isn't free.



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: LI Phil]
      #34427 - Thu Nov 11 2004 09:04 PM

does anyone think that 92L will be named before this time tomorrow?
----------------------------------------------------
thanks to all servicemen/veterans for your hard work in keeping this great nation free


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James88
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Rabbit]
      #34428 - Thu Nov 11 2004 09:21 PM

I think it might possibly be named. I am not entirely convinced, but I would not be surprised if it became Otto. Let's say a 40% of that happening within 24 hours.

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LI Phil
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: James88]
      #34429 - Thu Nov 11 2004 11:02 PM

nOtto chance-o



--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Clark
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: LI Phil]
      #34437 - Fri Nov 12 2004 04:59 AM

I agree -- neither has a really good shot at developing.

While we may see trough fracture occur over the far eastern Atlantic, with a large ridge in place over the east Atlantic and west Europe, the "hybrid" low is gradually feeling the influence over the broad trough and is starting to become sheared. I think it's window has pretty much closed.

It is on the tail end of this same trough where the other invest has been, but the convection is very much cyclical and is in a region of decent shear. There may be some weak baroclinic development along the trough with a weak low moving north & east with time, but tropical - or even hybrid - development is pretty unlikely. Last QuikSCAT pass showed a weak circulation in the eastern Caribbean and there is some convection, but it's sheared and isn't organized. There's some pretty cold (relatively speaking, of course) air behind the trough as well, as evidenced by the alto- and stratocumulus over the western Atlantic; the temperature gradient along the trough is likely enhancing convection, but isn't conducive to any development.

But, all of these interesting "hybrid" storms raises an interesting point -- what is, or should be, the operational definition of a subtropical cyclone? To me, it seems like it has been somewhat ambiguous this year, particularly since we cannot fly recon out to these storms to accurately gauge their structure and the funding isn't there (yet) to use the remotely-sensed data, such as microwave data, to determine the structure of the storm on a real-time basis. We had Nicole, a subtropical storm, while we also had Matthew, a storm that likely was only classified as a tropical cyclone (as opposed to an extratropical storm) because of recon. Further, there have been about 5 other storms you could theoretically classify as subtropical cyclones, some more impressive than others (and some more impressive and longer-lasting than some of our existing storms), that were not.

The recent decision to include subtropical cyclones in the storm record -- and the subsequent increased analysis for these storms, in terms of operational attention focused to what is out there -- and the rather, well, discontinuous system of classifying them is skewing the climatological record for the Atlantic basin. Furthermore, I don't feel that there is an accurate or concrete enough definition of what one of these storms is to justify including them with the tropical season climatology. It seems that the definition of what a subtropical cyclone is has been "not extratropical but not tropical." That implies a warm-core system with a large radius of maximum winds, or a cold-core system with a small radius of maximum winds, or an occluded-looking low with some convection near the center, but what is the *actual* definition of these storms?

I'd like to get everyone's thoughts on the issue, since it seems to be somewhat the hot topic in the Atlantic over the past couple of months. Obviously, the field deserves much more research and analysis. But, given that there is little such work currently ongoing, should we classify these storms within the Atlantic season climatology, or should we classify them separately (i.e. "Subtropical Storm 1") as before? Further, what about systems in the Pacific & other basins -- the WPac sees a couple of similar systems each year, while the Indian Ocean has numerous "monsoon depressions" each year that affect the coastline during the season but are not true tropical cyclones. Where do you draw the line? To me, it should be consistant throughout the world, but that's just my opinion.

With the loss of life these systems can bring -- see the May Haiti storm -- it is obvious that some attention should be paid to these systems. But do they deserve to become a part of the tropical cyclone climatology as named storms? My personal belief is no, at least not until we can better quantify what these storms truly are -- are they closer to extratropical than tropical, etc. -- but that there should be some classification scheme nonetheless, one that is applied consistantly with at least a rough operational definition. But, I'd like to get everyone's thoughts, as I mentioned before, on the topic...

Here's hoping the season is over...

--------------------
Current Tropical Model Output Plots
(or view them on the main page for any active Atlantic storms!)


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Spike
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Clark]
      #34438 - Fri Nov 12 2004 12:14 PM

Yea.. Hopefully we wont have any more canes' this year. I dont think florida can offord much more. I would like to just call this season done.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Spike]
      #34444 - Fri Nov 12 2004 02:01 PM

Yes, I'm so incredibly relieved that October and now Novermber has been mostly quiet. The site is slow, and I'm glad to see it for once. Bring on '05. I'm heading down to Florida today and trying to do a few things for the end of year (or early next year) animated flash presentation I'm working on for 2004. Plus getting the new site stuff up working properly.

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bobbi
Unregistered




thats some concentrated color down there.. [Re: Spike]
      #34445 - Fri Nov 12 2004 03:28 PM

http://orca.rsmas.miami.edu/wximages/jet/1_05/anis.html

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LI Phil
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Clark]
      #34446 - Fri Nov 12 2004 03:39 PM

>>> With the loss of life these systems can bring -- see the May Haiti storm -- it is obvious that some attention should be paid to these systems. But do they deserve to become a part of the tropical cyclone climatology as named storms? My personal belief is no

We should have an off season discussion on this...While Ed will argue with me, I believe (I've said it enough times) that the NHC TOTALLY dropped the ball with said May storm...maybe it wasn't totally tropical, and maybe it didn't deserve a name, but there was NO RECON nor even any discussion of such. 3,000 Haitians lost their lives in this disaster...I also believe that because of this terrible tragedy, the NHC did an excellent job (for the most part) during the rest of the season...including prepping for recon for 91L & 92L.

I think we're done for 2004...the season from hell.

--------------------
2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

"If your topic ain't tropic, your post will be toast"


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Keith234
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Clark]
      #34447 - Fri Nov 12 2004 07:42 PM

It doesn't matter if the storm is classified or if it isn't...giving names to storms is a tradition and when you think about it, seems rather stupid. I also don't feel there is a need to call something sub-tropical...do you think the average person (non-meteoroligical) would want to know the difference. The only thing that needs to be worked on is the accuracy of tracking these storms, needless of their classification; and the dynamics involved. Other then that I think we're okay, and we should just take it one step at a time...

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Spike
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Re: 91L & 92L [Re: Keith234]
      #34449 - Sat Nov 13 2004 10:58 PM

Chances are if another storm even forms it wont effect florida to much.... I hope. But you never know like this year turned out to be a surprise. Do you think were going to have an active season next year?? " i know not this active this is very rare" but do you wonder what it would be like to have this kinda season again? Just wanted to run that by you.

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