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Unseasonably stout wave in Caribbean bringing enhanced showers and tstorms for several days, but lacks model support for development 5/26
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News Talkback >> 2004 News Talkbacks

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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged:
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Potential Late Season Development
      #34518 - Sat Nov 27 2004 01:30 PM

An upper level low pressure system located about 1200 miles southwest of the Azores has been drifting slowly westward for the last couple of days and has developed a surface gale circulation near 26.4N 44.4W at 27/12Z. The gale center is currently stationary with good low level banding features, however , significant convection is removed to the north through east of the center. Wind shear is nil to light southwesterly in the area of the storm center and is expected to remain that way through Sunday evening.

Development of a late season subtropical storm is possible over the weekend.
ED

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Storm Cooper
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Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34519 - Sat Nov 27 2004 01:58 PM

http://tcweb.fnmoc.navy.mil/tc-bin/tc_home.cgi

--------------------
Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #34521 - Sat Nov 27 2004 03:22 PM

I don't feel that the current storm will form anything, just not enough moisture to be synthesized. That seems to be the limiting factor in this scenario.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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LI Phil
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Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Keith234]
      #34529 - Sun Nov 28 2004 12:34 AM

I'm quite frankly surprised NRL would even issue this invest. Suppose it needs to be monitored, but I'm calling it DOA.

Ed, can you post the "when will the last hurricane of the season be" thread...I can't seem to find it...thought it was in the Storm Forum...maybe I just missed it.

Cheers.

Post number 15197 by Cycloneye in the Storm Forum on June 10th.
Cheers,
ED

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sun Nov 28 2004 02:40 AM)


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Posts: 511
Loc: Central Florida
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: LI Phil]
      #34536 - Sun Nov 28 2004 04:05 PM

Looks like we could have Tropical or Subtropical Storm Otto later today
Atlantic satellite


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HanKFranK
User


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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
notion seconded [Re: Rabbit]
      #34538 - Sun Nov 28 2004 04:39 PM

rabbit is right about the status of our cutoff low. deep convection has been bursting near 93L's center since about 10 or 11z. right now it looks about as good as nicole ever did. i don't know if NHC is going to bother, but this system does merit classification.
HF 1539z28november


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Rabbit
Weather Master


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Loc: Central Florida
Re: notion seconded [Re: HanKFranK]
      #34539 - Sun Nov 28 2004 08:10 PM

Atlantic satellite image
looks very possible, if NHC decides to do their jobs this time, that we will have Otto at 11 pm if not before
it is actually beginning to look very similar to the post analysis subtropical system of 2001


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: notion seconded [Re: Rabbit]
      #34540 - Sun Nov 28 2004 08:15 PM

That can be taken two ways "If the NHC does their jobs" they're not going to go crazy over a tiny disturbance, when we've had Ivan, Frances, and Jeanne.
no need for anyone to go crazy.. just issue advisories if it's a tropical cyclone in their region of responsibility. that's what they do. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Sun Nov 28 2004 11:07 PM)


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Hurricane6
Unregistered




Re: notion seconded [Re: Keith234]
      #34541 - Sun Nov 28 2004 09:07 PM

Look at the ball of 80 minus convection...That is a CDO over a well oreganized LLC. This system is moving west-northwestward.

A cold SOIld CDO over a well defined CDO. With Banding forming?=Tropical cyclone!!! http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/watl-ir4-loop.html

This makes Tropical storm Matthew in Nicole to shame.


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Jamiewx
Storm Tracker


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Posts: 371
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T-Numbers [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34542 - Sun Nov 28 2004 10:08 PM

28/1745 UTC 28.6N 45.0W ST2.5/2.5

Looks like we may have a subtropical cyclone out there by 11.


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James88
Weather Master


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Posts: 576
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: T-Numbers [Re: Jamiewx]
      #34543 - Sun Nov 28 2004 11:13 PM

So it would seem. It appears that 2004 is about to draw its last gasp.

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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #34545 - Mon Nov 29 2004 05:36 PM

Heh... Any idea what the SST's are in that region?

This is soooo not a case of "I told you so (cause I didn't *laughs*)," but as people have mentioned, stuff like this seems to happen. I'd be really impressed (not to mention suprised) if something serious developed (similar to Olga)

Yes, I'll beat the Olga example into the ground *grins*

Mark (9 - 2 Falcons ... woo!)


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34546 - Mon Nov 29 2004 07:44 PM

I was wrong...and I'll toast for that. "Never brag when right, but always admit to wrong when wrong" - Old chinese saying

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Bloodstar
Moderator


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Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Keith234]
      #34547 - Mon Nov 29 2004 08:53 PM

Quote:

I was wrong...and I'll toast for that. "Never brag when right, but always admit to wrong when wrong" - Old chinese saying




Nah, no apologies... it's still not going to become Otto

Mark


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged:
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34548 - Mon Nov 29 2004 11:39 PM

What are you talking about, the storm should have been classified yesterday? It was physically 'Otto", at 11 pm, it had a CDO, presistent convection, most likely an LLC, banding features etc. and the list goes on. Actually looks like it is going to perform an "Obi Wan effect"{tm JB}. Fortantely it's getting caught up in a trof, probably trigger a secondary low to form by Europe and affect them, nothing more...

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Keith234]
      #34549 - Tue Nov 30 2004 12:49 AM

Quote:

What are you talking about, the storm should have been classified yesterday? It was physically 'Otto", at 11 pm, it had a CDO, presistent convection, most likely an LLC, banding features etc. and the list goes on. Actually looks like it is going to perform an "Obi Wan effect"{tm JB}. Fortantely it's getting caught up in a trof, probably trigger a secondary low to form by Europe and affect them, nothing more...




Heh, I just think that the CDO wasn't pervasive enough yesterday (or today) to really call it sub-tropical. though it's looking better as of last peek. Maybe I'm conservative, but I wouldn't have considered it to be strong enough to be called Otto ... though it's really close ...



(I'm just here to learn... and if i'm smoking some good c***k, well, don't mind me *grins*)

so, am I total c***k smoker by thinking that 93L isn't Otto yet?

edited to remove illegal substance reference-danielw

sorry bout that, just slightly self-denigrating humor -mark... ps... is there anyone who can edit the references in the actual poll?


Votes accepted from (Tue May 28 2024 07:33 AM) to (No end specified)
View the results of this poll



Edited by Bloodstar (Tue Nov 30 2004 05:45 AM)


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Also... [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34550 - Tue Nov 30 2004 12:53 AM

I hope you don't mind me being a little silly there. It's nice to be able to have a (potentia)l storm out in the Atlantic and not have to worry about people dying from a monster.

(that and driving 1500 miles this weekend... I really am a little loopy... well more so than usal. *chuckles*

take care all
Mark


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Bloodstar]
      #34551 - Tue Nov 30 2004 01:03 AM

I voted yes. I can assure that post will be multilated by one of the RSVP's! That's fo sure! It had an area of very deep convection centered around the vort. max. , it has to have over 30 mph winds, that's a no brainer. Look how organized it was, with the banding features...

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Keith234
Storm Chaser


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Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Keith234]
      #34552 - Tue Nov 30 2004 01:11 AM

And not only that, but the NHC also reognized it in their tropical outlook. My prespective has changed on this storm, while it may not be a strong storm like Olga, it will be there. It's odd to see something form that far west, within the subsidence of the Azores high but it does harbor a realitvely clam area of shear as opposed to some other areas.

--------------------
"I became insane with horrible periods of sanity"
Edgar Allan Poe


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Bloodstar
Moderator


Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Tucson, AZ
Re: Potential Late Season Development [Re: Keith234]
      #34553 - Tue Nov 30 2004 01:29 AM

*chuckles* really I promise I'll stop rambling one day... but I will say this:

If the NHC doesn't declare this to be a Subtropical storm at 11PM, I'll be pretty shocked. the sucker still doesn't have a lot of convection, but it's getting there. wait for it...... wait for it....

heh
Mark


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