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News Talkback >> 2005 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4543
Loc: Orlando, FL
Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight
      #36910 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:14 PM

11PM Update
No Hurricane tonight, but it has the potential during the early morning to strengthen. Hopefully it will get more disorganized and not make that.

Skeetobite's Maps: Hurricane Warning Area and Forecast Track:


Regardless, there is now a Hurricane Warning from Pascagoula, Mississippi east toward Destin. Expect Category 1 hurricane strength within 24 hours in that location..

Original Update
Tropical Storm Arlene is gaining some organization tonight. And likely may be named the first Hurricane of the 2005 season. The latest Aircraft Recon Report has the windspeed a bit up and may indicate it may reach hurricane strength later tonight.



We'll be watching it closely, of course, as Hurricane Watches and tropical storm warnings are up along the northern gulf coast, from Mississippi to the Florida Panhandle. Folks further east along the Florida coast will want to watch this one as well in case the center reforms closer to the western florida coastline. Still the latest track trends toward the Florida Panhandle, and is the most likely location.

More to come. See updates from Clark Evans and Jason Kelley below. I

Event Related Links

Northwest Florida Long Range Radar Loop

Key West long range radar loop
Tallahassee, FL long range radar loop
Tampa Long Range Radar loop

Color Sat of Arlene

Animated model plots for Arlene
Electronic Map Wall (PSU)
Caribbean Island Weather Reports


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WeatherNLU
Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 212
Loc: New Orleans, LA
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: MikeC]
      #36911 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:41 PM

Nealy half a degree west in the last three hours, that's the most definitive movement west since this thing began. Let's see if that becomes a trend.

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: MikeC]
      #36912 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:43 PM

looks like Arlene will be the first hurricane of the atlantic season

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mbfly
Weather Guru


Reged: Mon
Posts: 119
Loc: Mobile, Alabama
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #36913 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:44 PM

Is there ANY chance still of Arlene going west of Mobile, or does it definitely look like a FL panhandle strike now

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jth offline
Unregistered




Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #36914 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:44 PM

She appears to be moving NNW to NW on latest sat pics. I still believe she will land at the MS/AL border. Looking now for a moderate cat 1.

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kelcot
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 104
Loc: Canton, Ga
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: jth offline]
      #36915 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:51 PM

That should make things very interesting for me here in PCB

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: mbfly]
      #36916 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:51 PM

mbfly.. I think the Mobile area may be back in the picture, just have to wait for the next adv. I also guess I possibly lost my bet that she would not make Cat I. Have a feeling she will at the next adv.

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hurricane_run
Storm Tracker


Reged: Sun
Posts: 366
Loc: USA
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: jth offline]
      #36917 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:52 PM

I concur

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: jth offline]
      #36918 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:52 PM

MS/AL line 80-85 looks like a good bet right now . Where shoud I set up ? Does anyone know where Jeff Gamons will be ?

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leetdan
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: Osceola County
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: MikeC]
      #36919 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:54 PM

hay what's going on in this atlantic hurricane season?



Anyways we had some fairly stiff winds today (coastal Palm Beach County), and to be honest the steady southerly wind and rain reminded me a lot of Charley passing to the west last year. Fortunately we missed the heavier bands that moved through Miami-Dade and Broward earlier today.

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Colleen A.
Moderator


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1432
Loc: Florida
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: WeatherNLU]
      #36920 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:54 PM

Haven't been able to post much because my Mom, sister and two nieces are here. We haven't gotten much rain here in Lakeland. Should we be expecting some rain later on or are the rain bands too far off the coast? It doesn't seem like we're going to get much rain based on the radar loops...unless there's more to the south that are going to hit us later. Are we out of the woods with the rainfall?

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jth home
Unregistered




Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: Colleen A.]
      #36921 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:56 PM

Is that an Eye feature starting to form?

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #36922 - Fri Jun 10 2005 08:58 PM

Quote:

I also guess I possibly lost my bet that she would not make Cat I.




who's yer bet with...it better not be jason cuz then he's hedgin' his bets...i bet him a buck it would become a cane...

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Storm Cooper
User


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: LI Phil]
      #36923 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:01 PM

I guess I may have blown it. Now just tell me where she will go

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: Storm Cooper]
      #36924 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:12 PM

it will go right towards cantore...maybe you can make a little road trip to p-cola and get us some video...especially JC's hotel room...

stay safe coop...watch out for tornados...maybe you can hang at WJHG and see one live!

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

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Keith234
Storm Chaser


Reged: Thu
Posts: 921
Loc: 40.7N/73.3W Long Island
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: jth home]
      #36925 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:17 PM

Since it's getting dark it's quite hard to see, but if you stare really closely yes some type of depression in the CDO is starting to form ( http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUVS.JPG ). I digress. The storm is still very much un-organized, with still a dry slot pushing ne into the sw corner of the storm ( http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GIFS/HUWV.JPG ) .
But a large 500 mb ridge dominates the GOM providing quite good coniditions for the storm to develop. That spike of 30 + C waters leading to the mouth of the mississippi (probably due to eutrophication) might pull the storm to the west more then the models anticipate. Just a hypothesis.

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bob67
Unregistered




Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: Keith234]
      #36926 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:21 PM

looks like this one will become a hurricane.... mod cat 1 to maybe even a cat 2? Anyone agree? [/list]

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Jeffmidtown
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 132
Loc: Atlanta, Ga
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: Keith234]
      #36927 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:22 PM

Here in Atlanta, it looks like the mets are hedging their bets and downplaying this as a minor rain event here in Atlanta, But my gut feeling tells me that we may get some significant rain out of this somewhere between 3-6" before it's all said and done. We'll see how they play it when the 11pm comes out.....

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LI Phil
User


Reged: Fri
Posts: 2637
Loc: Long Island (40.7N 73.6W)
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: Jeffmidtown]
      #36928 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:24 PM

>>> You know it's a bad day.....when you wake up and see Jim Cantore broadcasting from your backyard....literally!

especially if he's staying in your hotel

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2005 Forecast: 14/7/4

BUCKLE UP!

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HCW
Storm Tracker


Reged: Fri
Posts: 287
Loc: Mobile,AL
Re: Arlene Likely to Become a Minimal Hurricane Tonight [Re: LI Phil]
      #36929 - Fri Jun 10 2005 09:29 PM

Hurricane Warning will be issued at 10pm . Best guess would be Biloxi to Panama City .

that would be 10 PM CDT/11PM EDT

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Edited by LI Phil (Fri Jun 10 2005 09:30 PM)


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