An active tropical wave continues to become better organized in the southeast Caribbean Sea. Outflow is improving and banding is developing although convection is currently limited. Possible axis of rotation near 13.6N 62.7W at 31/21Z. Movement to the west northwest at 15 knots. Shear is relaxing ahead of the system and development of a Tropical Depression is possible within 24 hours if the convection can become better organized.
ED
Oops - good catch Kevin & Pam. Two weeks of vacation and I need to be retrained . Convection has really fallen apart this evening, so any development will indeed be slow. The Caribbean Sea is not as dry as it usually is, so I thought that this one had a chance. The overall envelope is still excellent so it may do something eventually - but not likely for a few days.
Thanks,
ED
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. Convection has really fallen apart this evening, so any development will indeed be slow. The Caribbean Sea is not as dry as it usually is, so I thought that this one had a chance. The overall envelope is still excellent so it may do something eventually - but not likely for a few days.