Justin in Miami
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 269
Loc: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
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What does the stationary movement mean for the future hook-up with the front? Anyone have an idea?
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Brett
Weather Watcher
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Posts: 41
Loc: Miami, Florida
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I am with Dave on this one. Its still getting sheared...its in an environment where its likely going to move quickly sometime soon...Number 1, its not going to get above TS status, if that, and Number 2, its going to miss So. Fla by a longshot to the east. In fact, on the last few loops I see all the convection going east already, even if the center is exposed and stationary. I don't know, but my guess is a center reform to further east, a pickup in forward speed, and crossing eastern cuba out into the bahamas as a minial TS. So. Fla. shield still intact.
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South Florida
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Stuart Dave
Unregistered
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I still maintain 60's in SE fla before 10/15 is unusual. I don't recall this occuring in the last 5 years and is evidence of a very cold front. I forgot to mention the main reason that this area will not be hit is because I fertilized everything Sunday based on the rain predictions as we have received almost none since early Sept here. This evenings forecast for rain in the next 2 days has begun to plummett from what it was earlier.
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Bill
Unregistered
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Sorry Dave-
Temps in the 60s in October are not so unusual, even in Stuart. I was there in 99 and temps were in the 60s almost every night in Mid October, right there on the coast. In fact, 60s as far s as WPB too. And no particular mention of it being unusual.
We are going to have 50s up here in Tally, and the last few yrs we have had them in SEPT as storms went by to the east, not so unusual...no new records.
Now, re: Marco to be.... no one knows where it is going or how strong. It is virtually stationary, none of the models called that. And , it is exposed, but shear should let up. A narrow ridge is holding it down. Will the front miss it, not likely, BUT, it could allow it to come further north and west and be stronger.
TWT.
IHS,
Bill
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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silly thing is drifting around west of the convection.. yeah, why not. until the center reforms or until it starts moving, all bets are off. now running too late to cleanly, probably get dragged along into the bahamas. note that the ridging to the north is holding, and if this continues we may get a meanderer that stays south of things and takes its time.
tropical systems never do what theyre told.
HF 2135z14october
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HanKFranK
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Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
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insert word after cleanly--PHASE
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Steve H.
Unregistered
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No those temps aren't unusual, at least not record breakers. However, onto TD #14, after complimenting Stewart earlier, I don't know what's up with the latest obs on the TD. It looks terrible IMO, with the closed circulation looking poorer at 21Z than at the time of the 5PM advisory. IMO this TD is dissipating; it certainly isn't moving. I don't get it at all. Any thoughts out there??
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joepub1
Storm Tracker
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Posts: 240
Loc: Jacksonville,Fla
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Well, my 8:00 am call that this wasn't Marco is still alive. But this isn't the noreaster going up the coast either, because that monster is getting it's act together south of Pensacola. Some models did show the energy of TD14 getting pulled in with this other low off of NE FLA/GA and making a mess up the coast. We may be seeing that happen, at least to a point.
I just don't see TD14/Marco being anything more than a lopsided rainmaker.
Here in Jacksonville we have rain moving from all directions at us, yet our 60% chance of rain got us a sunny 82 degree day. The cold front is not supposed to get by us until tomorrow(Tuesday) night, with lows in the 50's Wed/Thur.
Must mean the Jacksonville Fair is in town. Yep. Starts Friday.
Joe in JAX
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WXMAN RICHIE
Weather Master
Reged:
Posts: 463
Loc: Boynton Beach, FL
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Normal Lows for 10-15
Melbourne 67
Vero Beach 69
WPB 71
Source NWS
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Another typical August:
Hurricane activity is increasing and the Red Sox are choking.
Live weather from my backyard:
http://www.wunderground.com/weatherstation/WXDailyHistory.asp?ID=KFLBOYNT4
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