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Today is the last day of the 2021 Atlantic Hurricane Season. 8 landfalls including Ida, but no landfalls in the late season.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 83 (Nicholas) , Major: 99 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1153 (Michael) Major: 1153 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


Reged: Sun
Posts: 4426
Loc: Orlando, FL
Bahamas System Getting Organized
      #67263 - Fri Jun 23 2006 12:57 PM

The disturbance east of Florida is starting to become better organized and may have a chance to develop over the weekend. It is more likely now because upper level winds are changing, and become a bit better for development.

The main thing to look for is persistence and the formation of a definitive low level circulation center. The best guesstimate of a center now is east of Grand Abaco Island in the Bahamas.

It is not likely to strengthen much, and may stay a Tropical (or perhaps Subtropical) Depression or low end storm if it does.

The chance for development graph for this system (within 24 hours):
Code:

forget it) 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 (sure thing)
[---------*------------]






We'll be watching it closely over the next several days. More to come...



Radar Imagery
Tallahassee, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Florida Keys Long Range Radar Loop
Tampa, FL Long Range Radar Loop
Miami, FL Long Range Radar
Melbourne, FL Long Range Radar

91L:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot

Animated Model Plot of 91L
Model Plot of 91L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)
Visible Satellite Floater
IR
Animated Floater with overlays
More Satellite Images of system

92L:

Animated Skeetobite Model Plot

Animated Model Plot of 92L
Model Plot of 92L (Graphic from the South Florida Water Management District)


Edited by MikeC (Sat Jun 24 2006 12:22 PM)


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Rich B
British Meteorologist


Reged: Sat
Posts: 498
Loc: Gloucestershire, England, UK
Re: Bahamas System Getting Organized [Re: MikeC]
      #67264 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:11 PM

Well what a difference a few hours make. just this morning i said i wasnt expecting much to develop, and yet here we have something that looks like it really might get going. As i mentioned earlier, and Tony pointed out, there appears to be a mean circulation east of Grand Abaco Island, and visible imagery shows this might be getting more defined. Satellite imagery also would appear to show that the overall appearance is improving, with some skeletal and weak banding features now developing. Movement is slight, but possibly a drift to the west.

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Rich B

SkyWarn UK


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Margie
Senior Storm Chaser


Reged: Fri
Posts: 1191
Loc: Twin Cities
Re: Bahamas System Getting Organized [Re: Rich B]
      #67265 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:18 PM

NRL just went ahead and issued the TCFA, supporting a LLC, "METSAT IM­AGERY AT 231200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 27.0N 73.3W."

--------------------
Katrina's Surge: http://www.wunderground.com/hurricane/Katrinas_surge_contents.asp


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: Bahamas System Getting Organized [Re: Rich B]
      #67266 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:21 PM

Yeah circulation looks much better this morning than it ever has, had a feeling it would. I feel fairly confident that we are looking at a TD soon, within the next 24 hours. Landfall is expected with many of the models to bring it into central FL or as far south as the Keys... Strength right now I don't think we are looking at anything more than a TD or a 35-50mph Beryl. Right now, the storm just isn't moving much...

As conditions continue to become more favorable for development (lack of shear, etc), I am interested to see what recon comes up with...


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Bahamas System Getting Organized [Re: ElizabethH]
      #67267 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:27 PM

Until we see a convergence of winds near the low pressure causing a blow up of T-Storms near the center..the pressure will not drop much and wont get much more organized...but do expect it will become a TD or TS by recon or earlier if ship and bouy reports confirm winds in excess of 30kt. Right now pressures of 1013 isnt much at all...we have to get to 1010 or under.

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vineyardsaker
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 146
Loc: New Smyrna Beach, FL
Re: Bahamas System Getting Organized [Re: MikeC]
      #67268 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:30 PM

I have a really dumb question: what exactly is the difference between a tropical and subtropical system? Is it location or strengh or something else?
subtropical is nonfrontal like a tropical system but has a broad windfield and usually spotty and decentralized deep convection. it's a hybrid designation that could probably be applied to more tropical and nontropical systems, but doesn't get used very much outside of ET to tropical transitioning storms. -HF

thanks!

Edited by vineyardsaker (Fri Jun 23 2006 06:40 PM)


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HanKFranK
User


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1841
Loc: Graniteville, SC
likely beryl out of 91L [Re: ElizabethH]
      #67269 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:41 PM

ok, really starting to buy into this. the h20-30 flow is closing off south of the main convective area... you can now see the upper flow blowing east to west over where the system appears to be consolidating. at the surface probably still a weak flat windfield with all those low level vortmaxes drifting out in the open nw and w of the focal area, and no real convergence point for convective bands to orient around right now. a solid convective burst would probably help define a center.
last night i was thinking it wouldn't get it together today, but it does look a good bit better. the upper air conditions should improve and stay fairly supportive as it moves wnw towards florida. good ocean heat content and deep water off the florida EC, so it might get a little stronger than progged. look for it to come ashore further north and not cross fl into the gulf if it deepens say below 1005mb. doesn't really have time to get very strong but a mid-range and possibly strong tropical storm is possible. personally i'd think it would tend to track more towards jacksonville.. but very fluid situation right now and the forecast swath is pretty much from south florida up into the carolinas. hell, how many times have people on here been busted for not thinking a storm will go to nc?
noteworthy that more than one global is trying to develop another system east of 91L. numerous models have been doing this in recent days. with strong ridging off the mid atlantic the progs take it north then northwest, with an implicit sideswipe to eastern new england. that thing east of the turks and caicos does still look somewhat there... probably getting tied up into the whole 91L mess, but any subsequent energy out of the east would be pinched away from 91L and left to jumble up out there. NOGAPS is also trying to put something in the southern gulf--seen this occasionally as of late but the idea doesn't carry a ton of water since the focus of the last wave seems to be over central america and into the eastpac. past 91L the other stuff is still kinda far fetched.
HF 1841z23june


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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Scott [Re: scottsvb]
      #67270 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:42 PM

Don't misunderstand.. I don't think we are going to see a special advisory or a TD right now. But with a closed circulation, better presentation on imagery, and now clouds starting to form around the center, I think strenghtening is going to happen. I mentioned it earlier..I can't wait to see or read what recon comes up with as far as pressure and winds are in this....until then I'm holding my breath

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ElizabethH
Meteorologist


Reged: Mon
Posts: 56
Loc: Bay County
Re: likely beryl out of 91L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67271 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:43 PM

oh and for Storm Hunter... The floater has moved to E of Bahamas

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hurricaneguy
Unregistered




Re: Bahamas System Getting Organized [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #67272 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:44 PM

A sub tropical storm is combination of a tropical system and an extra tropical system. They can range from upper level lows or mesoscale lows.

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john2
Unregistered




Re: likely beryl out of 91L [Re: HanKFranK]
      #67273 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:45 PM

The GFDL model only has it as a system for the next 6 hours...

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CoalCracker
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 96
Loc: Cape Coral, FL
Re: Bahamas System Getting Organized [Re: vineyardsaker]
      #67274 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:51 PM

This might help clarify the difference. Pretty decent glossary of a number of terms used on the board.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml


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john2
Unregistered




Re: likely beryl out of 91L [Re: ElizabethH]
      #67275 - Fri Jun 23 2006 01:56 PM

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1215 UTC 26.7N 73.6W T1.0/1.0 92L

Do have a reding but not a TD..


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sara33
Weather Guru


Reged: Wed
Posts: 136
Loc: St. Pete,
Re: likely beryl out of 91L [Re: john2]
      #67277 - Fri Jun 23 2006 02:02 PM

What is the difference between an ULL and a Tropical wave? Would the ULL be the next stage in develpoment from the tropical wave? If this question is too much to explain, would someone please give a link

Thanks in advance,
Christine

ULL-upper level low, a cyclonic turning above the surface weather. as they direct the air currents above the surface they can lead to areas of rising motion below and help low pressure form... they can also rip a tropical cyclone to shreds. sometimes they can induce a spin lower in the atmosphere and help a system develop.
a tropical wave is just an easterly pulse in the lower atmosphere in the tropics. they generally have some turning and force convection, and often serve as the precursor to a tropical system. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jun 23 2006 02:33 PM)


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scottsvb
Weather Master


Reged: Mon
Posts: 1180
Loc: fl
Re: Eliz [Re: ElizabethH]
      #67278 - Fri Jun 23 2006 02:02 PM

Totally agree...defidently no TD right now...pressure is very high...I still say Saturday when recon goes in like I said a few days ago.
where'd you say that? different board? -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jun 23 2006 02:23 PM)


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reedzone
Unregistered




Re: Bahamas System Getting Organized [Re: MikeC]
      #67279 - Fri Jun 23 2006 02:47 PM

Yeah I'd say a TD2 by either late tonight or tommorrow morning. And just to think 2 weeks ago we were watching a simuliar situation in the carribean. I take it making landfall in Daytona or Flagler Beach, FL sunday with winds of 50 mph. I have a feeling that this may do an Alberto either tonight or tommorrow. We'll have to see. Convection is scattered but a blow up is near. Thats when TD2 will be born.

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firestar_1
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Tue
Posts: 64
Loc: Port Charlotte, FL, 26.98N 82....
Re: likely beryl out of 91L [Re: john2]
      #67281 - Fri Jun 23 2006 02:47 PM

Quote:

Atlantic Ocean Basin: Imagery

DATE/TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION STORM
23/1215 UTC 26.7N 73.6W T1.0/1.0 92L

Do have a reding but not a TD..




Can anyone explain why the NRL site refers to this possible system as 91L, and then when checking the NOAA Satellite and Information Services web site at " http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/ " they are making reference to 92L? It appears to be the same system, but I am not sure why they would be using a different number. Thanks for any help figuring this one out.
sometimes their ID codes don't match. in that case check the coords to see if it's the same system. -HF

Edited by HanKFranK (Fri Jun 23 2006 03:28 PM)


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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: likely beryl out of 91L [Re: firestar_1]
      #67282 - Fri Jun 23 2006 03:27 PM

Hey what is going on with the models. Is the UKMET picking up another spin or are the models just messed up. Can anyone tell me.

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andy1tom
Storm Tracker


Reged: Wed
Posts: 309
Loc: Callaway, Florida
Re: likely beryl out of 91L [Re: hurricaneguy]
      #67283 - Fri Jun 23 2006 03:35 PM

it almost apperars that it is picking up the center south kinda southeast of where the other models are

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hurricaneguy
Weather Hobbyist


Reged: Fri
Posts: 80
Loc: Greeneville, TN
Re: likely beryl out of 91L [Re: andy1tom]
      #67284 - Fri Jun 23 2006 03:39 PM

that is what I thought, they may be battling each other for the main center.

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