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90L's remnants are now inland, nothing developed. A generally quiet Atlantic is likely until later in August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 271 (Zeta) , Major: 334 (Laura) Florida - Any: 1020 (Michael) Major: 1020 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2006 Forecast Lounge

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Random Chaos
Weather Analyst


Reged: Sat
Posts: 1024
Loc: Maryland
Hurricane Ernesto Midday
      #71447 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:00 PM

No,

Ernesto simply doesn't have the time over open water to grow the way Charlie did. That's what I'm trying to say. Everyone was saying "what if it makes a sudden turn" but no one was realizing the paths were so different.


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: Random Chaos]
      #71450 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:02 PM

URNT12 KNHC 271756
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE
A. 27/17:54:50Z
B. 17 deg 45 min N
073 deg 52 min W
C. 700 mb 3143 m
D. 35 kt
E. 135 deg 015 nm
F. 186 deg 030 kt
G. 136 deg 075 nm
H. EXTRAP 1007 mb
I. 10 C/ 3046 m
J. 14 C/ 3052 m
K. 3 C/ NA
L. NA
M. NA
N. 12 45/ 7
O. 0.02 / 10 nm
P. AF302 0605A Ernesto OB 07
MAX FL WIND 30 KT SE QUAD 16:49:20 Z
SFC CNTR 191 / 21 NM FROM FL CNTR
SLP EXTRAP FROM 700 MB
RADAR BANDING EVIDENT


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Thunderbird12
Meteorologist


Reged: Thu
Posts: 644
Loc: Oklahoma
Re: Hurricane Ernesto Midday [Re: Thunderbird12]
      #71454 - Sun Aug 27 2006 02:05 PM

Based on the recon data, Ernesto has practically bitten the dust, at least for the time being. They've been in the NW and SE quadrants and the highest FL winds reported so far were 30 knots.

Pressure is probably lower than what the recon had it as, since the surface center was reported to be displaced from the flight-level center by 21 miles. The FL fix was generally NW of the previous one, though more of a WNW motion is suggested if you consider the location of the surface center compared to the FL center.

Edited by Thunderbird12 (Sun Aug 27 2006 02:07 PM)


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