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#93L now a small better defined circulation with deep convection set to come ashore N of Tampico, MX. Recon investigating. Still 40% odds.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 298 (Idalia) , Major: 298 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 298 (Idalia) Major: 298 (Idalia)

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Weather Guru

Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Cat 4 Typhoon Xangsane hits Philippines
      #73869 - Wed Sep 27 2006 09:18 AM

Typhoon Xangsane exploded into a cat 4 storm overnight just before making landfall in Albay province in the central Philippines. Most forecasts yesterday were for a high end cat 1 or low end cat 2 at landfall. The storm apparently jogged north, missing an early landfall and stayed over water longer than expected, giving it more time to deepen. The official JTWC track takes Xangsane almost right over Manila, although it appears to me that it could stay about 50 miles south. It is then expected to enter the South China Sea, re-intensify into a cat 4 and hit Vietnam in about 4 days.

I know the Philippines are pretty used to typhoons, but I fear the loss of life could be substantial, especially with the storm hitting during a rapid intensification stage. The storm seems to be moving along pretty steadily so hopefully the flash flooding won't be too destructive.

UPDATE (10:30 PM ET) - center appears to have passed Manila, winds have shifted from NNW to SW, gusting to 55 mph.

12:30 AM - oops, apparently not. 12:00 ob has ENE wind at 60mph - gusts to 89 mph. That really makes more sense with the storm passing just south. That 10:00 ob must have just been a bad observation.

Edited by vpbob21 (Thu Sep 28 2006 12:58 AM)

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Weather Guru

Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Re: Cat 4 Typhoon Xangsane hits Philippines [Re: vpbob21]
      #73902 - Fri Sep 29 2006 10:47 AM

Xangsane is currently gathering strength again over the South China Sea and is back to cat 4 (115 kts) after it weakened to a cat 2 (or just a tropical storm, depending on which meteorological service you believe). It is now moving almost due west and should reach the coast of Vietnam sometime late tomorrow. JTWC forecast takes the intensity up to 125 kts. but then weakens it a little to 120 kts. before landfall. The storm is expected to slow down considerably as it moves inland so flash flooding may be the biggest danger.

Don't really know how heavily populated that area is, but I hope they are prepared.

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Storm Cooper

Posts: 1290
Loc: Panama City , FL
Re: EP992006 [Re: vpbob21]
      #73942 - Fri Oct 06 2006 04:38 AM

Not much to look at but really the only game in town right now...

Hurricane Season 2017 13/7/1

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