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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Typhoon Cimaron poised to slam northern Luzon
      #74086 - Sat Oct 28 2006 10:54 PM

Cimaron, the 22nd tropical cyclone of the west Pacific season, formed a couple days ago and has strengthened into a cat 4 storm, with winds of 120 kts. The storm (known as Typhoon "Paeng" in the Philippines) is moving WNW and is likely to hit northern Luzon island in the Philippines in about 18 hrs. as a 130 kt. supertyphoon. The system is looking very impressive on satellite and has a very distinct eye. Likely landfall would appear to be over Isabela province.

After crossing Luzon the storm is expected to find less favorable conditions over the South China Sea and slowly weaken. It should be down to a tropical storm by the time it reaches Vietnam.


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
Former Meteorologist & CFHC Forum Moderator (Ed Passed Away on May 14, 2017)


Reged: Sun
Posts: 2565
Loc: Melbourne, FL
Re: Typhoon Cimaron poised to slam northern Luzon [Re: vpbob21]
      #74087 - Sun Oct 29 2006 07:48 AM

Cimaron looking very impressive this morning as it is about to make landfall over central Luzon in the Philippines with sustained winds of 140 knots. Central pressure is down to 898mb.
ED


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vpbob21
Weather Guru


Reged: Fri
Posts: 115
Loc: Ohio
Re: Typhoon Cimaron poised to slam northern Luzon [Re: vpbob21]
      #74093 - Tue Oct 31 2006 10:28 AM

There has been a huge change in the forecast track of Cimaron. Earlier forecasts had the system getting under a ridge and moving west or even southwest and making landfall in Vietnam. Latest JTWC forecast has the storm recurving north and making landfall in China just west of Hong Kong in about 72 hours. Fortunately it is only expected to be a low end cat 1 storm when it gets there.

EDIT 8:30 PM - oops! another shift - newest JTWC forecast has Cimaron approaching within about 100 mi. of Hong Kong, then looping back west and southwest, staying just offshore. The models are really struggling with this one.

Edited by vpbob21 (Tue Oct 31 2006 08:40 PM)


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