Seems the latest model runs appear to be trending a bit farther west for this system. The site I went to is missing the UKMet past 48, but only the CMC is pushing the system up the east coast. The GFS has abandoned that move and show it dying in place close to the coast.....need the rain, don't need the pounding surf and high winds. This system is getting wrapped up awfully quickly. Gotta be energy out there, even if the water isn't all that warm yet. This is getting very interesting. Feed us info as you get it!!
PS. I am now officially addicted to this site!!
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2023 Season Prediction: 17/6/2
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can you please tell me what site you went to I don't know any wx sites am new to this.
this is the site that was posted in the thread that first mentioned this system may form. It works pretty well....click on submit with 'amination' in the drop-down box under 'HOUR' for any of them....then on the right side of the map that comes up, click 'forward' to set it in motion...the only ones not up-to-date are the GFDL and MM5FSU. Your own NC National Weather Service site will also have good info and good links to more.
Still my forecast is on track below from early Sunday... so I reposted this!
Not for the first couple of days...On the models,.I will agree with the ECMWF,Nogaps,Ukmet and even some of the GFS.... At first the storm will be strong..but nontropical...a gale center....but as it slowly picks up some tropical characteristics...it will weaken...cause it wont be a non tropical system as its in transition....then as it comes close to Floridas NE coast and St Augustine...the LLC will seperate from the mid and upper low and be on its west side and get pushed sw between the mid and upper low now to its E and the weak ridge over the NE gulf of mexico. It will slide into florida and probably fizzle out. This is the atmospheric synopsis pattern setting up. This will bring mostly rain and breezy conditions...but still movement and strength of the LLC later in the period is still up in the air at this time.
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