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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 330 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)

General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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Weather Watcher

Reged: Fri
Posts: 27
Loc: NW Florida
Western GOM today?
      #80249 - Fri Jul 04 2008 02:42 PM

Interesting fire of convection in the Western GOM today - what's your take?

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Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Jul 05 2008 12:06 AM)

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Weather Guru

Reged: Thu
Posts: 108
Loc: Vero Beach, Fl
Re: Western GOM today? [Re: BayCoGator]
      #80252 - Fri Jul 04 2008 08:20 PM

I do see a small circulation just SE of the Tex/ Mex border. Convection is rapidily deminishing though. Even if the convection was still flaring up, its moving pretty quickly to the NE.

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Reged: Mon
Posts: 2133
Loc: Austin, Tx
Re: Western GOM today? [Re: BayCoGator]
      #80254 - Sat Jul 05 2008 12:26 AM

There is a mid/upper-level low over south/southwest Texas. No surface reflection of any consequence currently exists, and upper level winds are prohibitively strong for tropical cyclone development over the western Gulf of Mexico.

Upper-level divergence aloft east of northern Mexico is helping to fan the flames of convection, particularly of daytime showers and thunderstorms, over the northwestern gulf. This activity is now waning with the loss of daytime heating.

For now, in the western ATL, about the only area to watch is the western Caribbean, with about one in two hundred odds of a tropical cyclone forming there within the next 48 hours. Some marked improvement in the upper-level winds to even marginally favorable and/or a significant surface low forming would need to occur before the western Gulf can be looked at for potential tropical cyclogeneis.

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