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The area near the Yucatan Peninsula (now Invest 99L) has a 30% chance for development over the next 5 days.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 338 (Nicholas) , Major: 354 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1408 (Michael) Major: 1408 (Michael)

General Discussion >> The Tropics Today

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Weather Analyst

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      #81141 - Tue Aug 05 2008 10:44 AM

I no That 99l is no longer on the NRL website, and that it is no longer mentiond in the tropical weather outlook + it really is not showing up on models either becuse it is not being initilized anymore other then a bump in 1016 isobar. Anyway i thought i would bring it up as to the fact it is still chuging along north of purto rico headed for the south central bahamas, there are still flare ups near the center, and it apears to have a circualtion still to. early agust in the past such as 1995 1999 have had instnaces where waves come into this reagion in thsi nature and try to develop. such as erin and danny, there is even Rita and especcially Katrina. This is purely speculation So i wondering what evryone else though about it seeing it has persited this far?

(Post moved to the appropriate Forum. From the Description of the 2008 News Talkback "you can only reply to the topics that are covered in the News Talkback main page leadoff article. " Note that this feature (99L) is no longer mentioned on the Main Page Talkback article, so this Forum (for its current status) or the Forecast Lounge (for any predictions) are the best Forums for any dialogue on 99L.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Tue Aug 05 2008 11:19 AM)

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Re: 99l [Re: Robert]
      #81143 - Tue Aug 05 2008 12:11 PM

I have been following this on another site that has a active thread on it. everyday it is dead, then alive. it has been controversial on the other site. some are saying it is entering a very friendly environment and that it is not going to recurve even if it developes. others are saying it interacting with a ULL and will not develop. So the debate will continue till it hits someone or goes puff.
feel free to pm if you want the link for the thread i am speaking of.

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Storm Tracker

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Re: 99l [Re: kpost]
      #81155 - Tue Aug 05 2008 11:38 PM

Kpost~ Your right about 99L seemingly not wanting to die, but I just would have a hard time believing that it will continue to slide westward. Reason being that as you described how it tends to come back and flare up, I have to believe that there remains some distinct vorticity associated with what appears to be a leading edge of an overall large high amplitude easterly surge. If this were simply a shallow surface feature, than I would agree that it would tend to follow the overall shallow layer flow, which would tend to be west to WNW'ward. There very fact that this feature seems to keep reminding us that it was a classified system, would make me believe that there remains some 500mb-850mb vorticity, which if given a chance to develop, this deepening phase would seemingly tend to have this feature now more caught in the overall deep layer flow. For the immediate, I was under the impression that we were having some troughiness off the U.S. Eastern seaboard, which if the case, would tend to have any deep level feature start to turn more poleward as it approached.

If long long range GFS 500mb patterns prove to come to pass, than we'll have something to talk about, given something approaching from the east. Long range steering flow seemed to indicate rock solid ridging, with a reinforcing ridge off the S.E. U.S. coastline. That kind of pattern in an active mid Atlantic season might make Florida Chambers of Commerce start to worry some. For the immediate future, I do not believe that type of ridging exists to the east of Florida

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