weathernet
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As of this morning, T.D. 8 has officially formed. Am preparing a preliminary forecast with regards to future course and impact. Will wait for visible satellite to assess current appearance, however given "T"'s of 2.0 and 2.5, anticipate an improving upper air as dipicted by 6Z upper air charts to have conclude "Hannah" to be named by mid-day ( if not earlier ).
European model once again has been the most consistant, and along with other basic dynamic models now coming into agreement with even marginal support by , believe the U.S. southeastern seaboard will really have to pay attention to this one.
Edited by MikeC (Thu Aug 28 2008 08:50 AM)
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ftlaudbob
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All the models so far have it going NW,then W and then SW.Kinda strange.And they have it as a major cane in just a few days.Any input?This looks to be a real concern for east coast Florida.
--------------------
Survived: 10 hurricanes in Rhode Island,Florida and the Yucatan of Mexico .
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craigm
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Wondering how much of a limiting effect the ULL in front of TD-8 will have (shear) and which direction the ULL is forecast to move. Haven't had a chance to research yet.
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Evan Johnson
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seeing as i am almost east coast, i am following this. checking weather.com's report they state it wont be a threat to land but needs to be monitored. seeing as it really has no where else to go other than west i think this is a threat. that frontal boundry that pushes storms to the the hurricane graveyard that usually is hovering over florida isnt there. i think we should bang our heads together and research more into this.
Weather.com's quote
"Meanwhile, a low pressure located several hundred miles east-northeast of the Leeward Islands has become Tropical Depression Eight as of early this morning. Continued strengthening is forecast, with it likely becoming Tropical Storm Hanna today.
It is forecast to track northwest into the weekend, and become a hurricane by late this weekend. For now, it does not appear to be of any threat to land, but will need to be closely monitored beyond this weekend."
Edited by Evan McCone (Thu Aug 28 2008 08:49 AM)
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MikeC
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The weather.com report is accurate, any speculation beyond 5 days or so is just that, and the chances are low right now, but gaining. However, I'm not convinced things will maintain long enough for it to reach the coast, but I'm not convinced enough it won't either!
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doug
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The ULL ahead of this storm is pretty strong and is why the track is NW and then back west and even SW as depicted in the model composite. It will definitel be the feature influencing the track in the short term. It will also enhance ventilation possibly if the two features can maintain polite distances from each other. Otherwise it could be a shear machine that kills the system. So ar the distance is healthy and it is ventilating the west side of this deveoping storm.
-------------------- doug
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craigm
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Hanna is being tilted to the east by the ULL. You can see the surface circulation.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/loop-rgb.html
The ULL llooks to be sliding to the S or SW as it separates Hanna should be able to strenghten even more. Strong ridge over mid Atlantic states forecast to build in will help models verify. Only question mark is the gap in the ridge that the is picking up on. This is reminding me of 04/05 when the Atlantic basin actually was ahead of the pacific in named systems which typically does not happen. Were not there yet but the next couple weeks could change things.
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CrisLrmr@aol.com
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Hi
I am travelling from UK on Tuesday September 2nd - driving from Sanford Airport to Chiefland for a couple of days then scheduled to drive down to St Petersburg 6-11th September - then up to Orlando until 16th September. I am absolutely terrified of making this journey given the current storm forecasts - any advice/reassurance? Obviously we would appreciate the benefit of advice before we travel folk !
thanks in anticipation
Tina
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Evan Johnson
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it is too soon to tell. i certainly would wait a couple days to make travel plans reguarding florida. even though gustav is going into the gulf. things can change. same with tropical storm hannah. i would wait, and follow the reports here for a couple days before making travel plans.
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Ed in Va
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History is interesting. The good news is that all but two storms at the same location have recurved to sea, but one of the two exceptions is Andrew:
http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200808_climo.html?MR=1
-------------------- Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!
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metwannabe
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Center of Hanna is now completely exposed, ULL causing quite a bit of shear. Hanna has a lot to overcome. If she can survive the next 24-48 hrs she should find herself in much better enviroment and all models will have a better handle then or could get sheared apart!!
-------------------- Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
Edited by metwannabe (Thu Aug 28 2008 12:35 PM)
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StormHound
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So is there any chance the ULL "takes over" and turns into a tropical system itself? It appears to me that it is starting to suck in the moisture from TD8.
-------------------- Storm Hound
Computer Geek
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scottsvb
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That's a Negative on that stormhound, the upper low wont become a TS. The ULL will migrate W and SW and Hanna will move NW and get above it in better upper level flow and strengthen some. Hannah is going to have to deal with ALOT of shear in her future from the ULL now, to the trough moving by to her north later this weekend and then the moderate N shear from the ridging building in early next week. But the movement of Hannah should be SW so she will move partly in tandam with the shear. I do think she has a good chance to become a hurricane early next week.
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MichaelA
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I'm wondering if pulled the trigger early on Hannah. Right now, it doesn't look like much with the LL circulation exposed. I'm thinking it could be downgraded to depression at 5PM unless there is a flair up of convection nearer the center.
-------------------- Michael
PWS
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Crusadier95
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Hanna to me seems like it will make land fall at Cape Canaviral, where it exits is TBD.
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Lee-Delray
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It looks like Hanna may pull a 2004 Jeanne and do some loops before it decides where to go. Its interesting that Gustav's northern outflow could have an effect on her.
Edited by Lee-Delray (Thu Aug 28 2008 05:13 PM)
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craigm
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C95- That is impossible to determine in an evolving environment. Computer models are dealing with a fluid within a fluid. Watch the 3 day cone and beyond that watch for consensus. Right now we are starting to see what is called a squashed spider output with the future track of Hanna which means the models are losing a grip on what will happen near the end of the runs. You are better off paying attention to the immediate synoptics and beyond 3 days solutions will vary.
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craigm
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Hanna is showing persistence in light of the shear from the ULL in front of her. Convection is really blowing up east of the center which looks very healthy. Once she clears that influence I'm thinking the official intensity is too conservative. We will see though won't we?
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metwannabe
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Convection blowing up much closer to the LLC, actually may be directly over the center. Also on WV loop looks as if ULL is starting to migrate westward. As long as ULL continues to move, as projected, and convetion continues to fire (even though it may be more pulse in nature in short term) Hanna will most likely survive. Plenty of time to watch her.
-------------------- Fran, Bertha, Dennis & Floyd (Tag Team)
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Storm Hunter
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Quote:
Convection blowing up much closer to the LLC, actually may be directly over the center. Also on WV loop looks as if ULL is starting to migrate westward. As long as ULL continues to move, as projected, and convetion continues to fire (even though it may be more pulse in nature in short term) Hanna will most likely survive. Plenty of time to watch her.
agree here that the ULL is finally starting to move to the west... maybe just south of west.... this latest blow-up of convextion on Hanna is really impressive to me... while fighting the shear on the west side.. it threw up a nice this evening (in about 2hrs)... which is looking like the coc is trying to get back underneath... after watching the last few runs... its intersting to see this model deepening some of the systems so fast.. but its track record is in question on the paths of the systems. i'm starting to think we could have to major canes this weekend... Hanna just seems like she's going to be in a really nice environment after this ULL moves away in the next 24 hrs
-------------------- www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
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Edited by Storm Hunter (Thu Aug 28 2008 09:14 PM)
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