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News Talkback >> 2008 News Talkbacks

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MikeCAdministrator
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Gustav Inland in Louisiana, Hurricane Hanna moving WSW, Tropical Storm Ike Forms in Atlantic
      #83634 - Mon Sep 01 2008 08:25 AM

2:30PM EDT Update
Recon has found hurricane force winds in Hanna, and therefore Hanna Has become a Hurricane.

Tropical Storm Ike has formed from tropical depression 9 in the Central Atlantic, Advisories on Ike will begin with 5PM.



For Hanna, Hurricane Warnings are now up for the Central Bahamas, Hanna currently is moving west southwest at 5, and the forecast ahead is still very much in question all of us in the cone will want to watch it very closely.

Also a new wave 90L is now being tracked. Things are VERY busy right now in the tropics.

11AM EDT Update
Gustav has made landfall near Cocodrie, Louisiana.

9:30AM EDT Update
Gustav has weakened a bit to a category 2 storm still approaching the Louisiana Coastline. Tropical Depression Nine has formed in the Central Atlantic from 97L, advisories should begin at 11AM, it is moving relatively quickly and we may have to deal with that next week.. Another wave near Africa (99L) May form into a depression in the next few days.

Hanna is still moving very slowly westward with the track beyond 3 days a bit uncertain, folks in the cone will want to watch it closely as it moves slowly generally toward the west over the next 2 days.

Google Map Plot of Gustav, Hanna, and TD#9

Original Update
Thankfully, Hurricane Gustav has not strengthened overnight, but remains a major hurricane in the Gulf of Mexico, It is about 20 miles off the coast of Louisiana right now and should make landfall shortly before approaching Lafayette and moving by New Orleans to the West. Storm surge could be anywhere from 7-14 feet depending on the location, most of the storm surge should be slightly to the east of where the storm makes landfall. Godspeed to all in the affected areas. Usually with storms of this nature news is slow to come, and you usually here from those not affected well before those that are. (After all, no power, likely dangerous life conditions take precedence)



Tropical Storm Hanna is holding its own, but fighting shear, which is keeping it from strengthening. It is moving very slowly westward, but should eventually reach an area more conductive for strengthening. Florida, Georgia, South and North Carolina need to watch this one because there is a good deal of uncertainty in the forecast track now, slightly further west and the storm could affect Florida, more east, North Carolina, and the current National Hurricane Center Forecast track takes it in near Savannah at the South Carolina/Georgia border.



Graphic showing elevations of New Orleans

Emergency Management/County info
Gulf Coast Storm Alert Network
FloridaDisaster.org - Florida Emergency Management
Mississippi Emer. Management
State of Florida Division of Emergency Management/floridadisaster.org
Louisiana Emergency Management
Lousiana Evac Maps

Video/Audio Links/Webcams
NOAA Weather Radio out of New Orleans
Hurricane City - Live Audio and Video
HurricaneTrack/Mark Sudduth HIRT Team
The Storm Report Live Video Stream from Houma, LA
New Orleans Webcams
French Quarter Cam
Lake Ponchartrain Causeway
Metarie Webcam
Louisana Instacams
GregLeder Backyard webcam with battery backup
Maroonspoon multiple live coverage of Gustav New Orleans: WGNO, WWL, WDSU, WVUE (Mute individual ones to focus)
New Orleans Police Scanner (Req. Winamp)
Lousiana EM Radio Chatter
Multiple Webcams in Area from HurricaneCity


Louisiana DOT Traffic Cameras

Television/Radio
KATC In Lafayette, LA
WWL TV 4 (CBS Affiliate in New Orleans) HERE
ABC 26 TV (ABC Affiliate in New Orleans)
WDSU Channel 6 (NBC Affiliate New Orleans)
Fox 8 (New Orleans)
WTIX 690 News Radio
WWL 870 News Radio
Hurricane Now - Video reports from former CNN hurrican reporter Jeff Flock
Weathervine.com
WKRG 5 in Mobile/Pensacola
WPMI Channel 15 from Mobile

Other
NOLA - Everything New Orleans

-- Looking for more Video/Audio links for the approach areas, please let us know if you have any links/information!


Key West Long Range Radar with hint of Gustav

Storm Surge Risks with Gustav along Louisiana

Google Map Plot of Both Gustav and Hanna

Flhurricane Long Term Recording of Cuban radar mosaic









Caribbean Islands Weather Reports









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cieldumort
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward [Re: MikeC]
      #83635 - Mon Sep 01 2008 08:43 AM

Hanna looks to have nuzzled under some of the colder cloud tops overnight, and is arguably quite a bit stronger than the last two advisories. Recon should get in there within a few hours and should the LLC still be under the cold tops at that time, it seems reasonable to expect a jump in the advisory wind speed, and possibly a sizable jump, if it is not raised sooner than that.

Gustav is doing a number, with a raggedy, and at times open eye becoming somewhat visible on IR as well as radar again. Southwest Pass had a two-minute sustained of 79 knots at an elevated measuring station at 24 meters up. Peak gust of 102 knots. Taking the gust of 117MPH into consideration at an elevation of 24 meters, even looking at all of the recon data that has come in, I'm inclined to believe that peak sustained winds somewhere in the cyclone are still about 110-115. While most of the winds within Gustav are likely well-below 90MPH sustained, given the continued very cold cloudtops bursting off and on in the IR channels, it seems reasonable enough to assume that something around 100 knots 1-min averaged could very well be mixing down to the surface somewhere in the cyclone, most possibly either just within the western eyewall, or in particular, up to 70 miles east-southeast of the eye itself, as by far most of the strongest winds have tended to remain on the eastern side of the storm, and still over water or just now coming inland.

Track-wise, it appears that Gustav may be starting to turn a little bit, now possibly leaning a touch towards the left side of northwest. This could prolong the time he spends over water, and also extend farther west the potential for storm surge, and hurricane-force winds along and near the coastline, as well as offshore. As for the surge, at this angle of approach the potential for very significant surge should be reduced some, as water will not funnel as efficiently outside of a few nooks and crannies, but will continue to represent a real threat.


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Raymond
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward [Re: cieldumort]
      #83636 - Mon Sep 01 2008 09:10 AM

Yes, due to radar there seems to be a more westward component in the movement. I would say, the 100 kt are a bit too high due to the last vortex pass of recon, but I can follow your reasoning.

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SMOKE
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward [Re: ltpat228]
      #83649 - Mon Sep 01 2008 10:58 AM

I know the NHC was interested in this particular storm as models guidance was bringing it up the eastern seaboard as a major hurricane. We will see.
As good as satellite information is ... the interpretation is so hard, especially for determining the center of the circulation.
This one is showing some very nice features ... good convection.

--------------------




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Colleen A.
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward [Re: ltpat228]
      #83650 - Mon Sep 01 2008 11:03 AM

Update on some of the levees:
Loose Barge is somewhere in the Industrial Canal and the Coast Guard is looking for it so it can stop it before it can cause any damage to that levee.
Water topping west side of NOLA's Industrial Canal Levee.
Water overflowing old Lower 9th Ward Canal levee; getting close to overflowing on the new Lower 9th Ward Canal levee.
EM personnel are becoming increasingly concerned with these developments as the surge is expected to continue as Gustav continues to make landfall.
*This information is coming in from the major news outlets and I am typing them as they are talking about it*.

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You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Steve H1
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward [Re: SMOKE]
      #83652 - Mon Sep 01 2008 11:07 AM

Hanna's overall structure has been improving during the last 24 hours IMO. Even with her caught between trough/ridge/Gustav she continues to produce deep convection and shows good fanning (outflow) around her constricted periphery. If/When she frees herself of these restraints, I believe she will strengthen pretty rapidly. Anyone from the keys to NC needs to be prepared for this one. With all the attention on Gustav, don't ignore hanna. Yeah i know....its labor day.

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Colleen A.
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward [Re: Steve H1]
      #83654 - Mon Sep 01 2008 11:32 AM

Wow...they just showed a person in the Industrial Canal trying to secure a propane tank. They are saying that 2 boats and a loose barge bumping into the sewer and water systems in that canal. The water is now beginning to overlap the levee in the Lower 9th Ward.
Also...FNC reporting that huge waves are now overlapping the Hardee Canal levee. They are witnessing this on a local news station who has a camera focused directly on that levee.
News is breaking so fast with these levees that I am literally typing them as I listen to them report this.

--------------------
You know you're a hurricane freak when you wake up in the morning and hit "REFRESH" on CFHC instead of the Snooze Button.


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Hugh
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83655 - Mon Sep 01 2008 11:40 AM

I don't mean to be an alarmist, but...
One thing CNN keeps saying is that the levees have not been breached like they were in Katrina.
Didn't the levee breaches in Katrina occur 24 hours after landfall, though, from rising waters as the storm passed north of the city? Or am I remembering it wrong? I remember the news folks saying during Katrina the same thing they are now saying - that the levees were not being breached - and then the next day, the reality of the situation becoming apparent. So, saying that the levees are holding now does not mean much, does it?

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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cieldumort
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic [Re: MikeC]
      #83656 - Mon Sep 01 2008 11:45 AM

Recon coming in from their first pass through Hanna today showing it centered south and east (farther into the deep convection) than even indicated in the adjusted 11AM. Pressure looks to be down below 987mb, with the center near 22.75N 72.72W.

Text of the Vort:

Fix: 22.6167N 72.4333W, Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)

Edited by cieldumort (Mon Sep 01 2008 11:50 AM)


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craigm
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic [Re: cieldumort]
      #83657 - Mon Sep 01 2008 11:50 AM

Here is the vortex message from recon sent at 11:45 EDT:
Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 1st day of the month at 15:45Z
Corrected: This observation corrected a previous observation.
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 301)
Storm Number & Year: 08L in 2008
Storm Name: Hanna (in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 05
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 15:25:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 22°37'N 72°26'W (22.6167N 72.4333W)
B. Center Fix Location: 115 miles (186 km) to the NW (314°) from Cockburn Town, Turks and Caicos Islands (GBR).
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,314m (4,311ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 31 nautical miles (36 statute miles) to the WNW (296°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 54° at 59kts (From the NE at ~ 67.9mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 71 nautical miles (82 statute miles) to the NW (306°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 986mb (29.12 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 21°C (70°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 18°C (64°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 2 nautical miles
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 59kts (~ 67.9mph) in the northwest quadrant at 15:03:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 22°C (72°F) which was observed 42 nautical miles (48 statute miles) to the WNW (299°) from the flight level center

--------------------
Why I'm here:
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craigm
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #83658 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:02 PM

Hanna surface winds over 100MPH in SE Quad !!! Although it is marked as suspect data.

Time:
15:53:00Z
Coordinates:
21.6333N 71.4833W
Acft. Static Air Press:
843.6 mb (~ 24.91 inHg)
Acft. Geopotential Hgt:
1,485 meters (~ 4,872 feet)
Extrap. SFC. Press:
1002.2 mb (~ 29.59 inHg)
D-value:
-
Flt. Lvl. Wind (30s):
From 197° at 60 knots (From the SSW at ~ 69.0 mph)
Air Temp:
14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Dew Pt:
14.5°C (~ 58.1°F)
Peak (10s) Flt. Lvl. Wind:
61 knots (~ 70.1 mph)
SFMR Peak (10s) SFC. Wind:
91 knots* (~ 104.6 mph*) This is looking like bad data as they are not finding anything near this strength as they start their northward leg
SFMR Rain Rate:
48 mm/hr* (~ 1.89 in/hr*)
(*) Denotes suspect data

Edited by craigm (Mon Sep 01 2008 12:16 PM)


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Hugh
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #83659 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:16 PM

So I guess Hanna will be upgraded to at least a moderate Cat 1 (or maybe a Cat 2) in the intermediate advisory?
It appears that the outflow from Gustav may even be feeding Hanna right now, rather than shearing it as I would have expected.

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Raymond
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic [Re: Hugh]
      #83660 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:25 PM

This should be really bad data. But good data shows, that´s at least a threshold cat. 1. So I would expect an upgrade at the next regular update.

Edited by Raymond (Mon Sep 01 2008 12:27 PM)


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Colleen A.
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TD #9 [Re: Raymond]
      #83661 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:30 PM

I know that TD#9 has formed and we need to keep an eye on it, but right now our main concerns are Gustav and Hanna. I have moved all posts and replies concerning TD #9 to the "Tropics Today" forum. Thank you for your cooperation.

--------------------
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LoisCane
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Re: TD #9 [Re: Colleen A.]
      #83662 - Mon Sep 01 2008 12:47 PM

Smart move re: the forums... Gustav is the story of the day and is what people are coming on line looking for information on..we need to remember that.

As for the levees.. it's a wait and see situation. As said some barge banging into the levee wall the wrong way could cause a problem and constant overtopping can weaken a weak spot and create a problem. Water may rise but there is a difference between some flooding and the historic flooding after Katrina.

Really a wait and see thing as hard as that is...

And, I really want to remind people this is NOT Katrina. It may be a strong cane hitting the same area and it brings up nightmare memories but here is the advisory from Katrina before landfall.

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2005/pub/al122005.public_a.026.shtml?

There is a big difference between 145 mph winds and 110. Huge difference and the gusts are much lower.

This is a dangerous storm not some weak cat 1 but let's remember it is not Katrina. Please.

That said... pray the levees hold which we pray and hope for in EVERY hurricane situation there. And, there are levees in Morgan City and elsewhere along it's path as well remember that.

--------------------
http://hurricaneharbor.blogspot.com/


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shewtinstar
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic [Re: Hugh]
      #83663 - Mon Sep 01 2008 01:07 PM

It looks like, on visible, that Hanna has an eye.

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cncguy2000
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local coverage [Re: LoisCane]
      #83664 - Mon Sep 01 2008 01:13 PM

Here is a link to local tv station Wlox 13 in Gulfport/Biloxi area.

wlox13

just below box is a link to stream local coverage.
(I can't get link to work in message)

Thanks for all the great work you guys, and gals do...

Henry


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SMOKE
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic [Re: craigm]
      #83666 - Mon Sep 01 2008 01:16 PM

Good call on the bad data .... people really need to weigh the 30sec against the VISUAL SFC winds.
The 10sec data is not yet, validity checked and has been known to be really out of whack with what is seen on the surface. That's why the RECCO and VDM are better tools to judge what's going on with the winds.
Hopefully, that will change next season.

--------------------




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Storm Hunter
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward, TD#9 Forms in Atlantic [Re: SMOKE]
      #83667 - Mon Sep 01 2008 01:21 PM

recon went back threw on Hanna... appears flight level center is about 9 miles just west of due south of last fix.. looks like pressure around 985-986mb.. looks like new center at 5kft is near 22.4833N 72.45W at 17:12:00Z

Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon Sep 01 2008 01:22 PM)


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MillardDJr
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Re: Gustav Approaching Louisiana, Hanna Slowly Drifting Westward [Re: Hugh]
      #83668 - Mon Sep 01 2008 01:31 PM

In regard to the delayed levee breach with Katrina, CNN was explaining that this morning.

With Katrina, the eye passed just to the east of NO, which made the winds primarily southerly and a large rain event - all of the rain and the wind caused the water to flow south from Lake Pochatrain (sp?) and force it down into the city from that direction - the rain therefore took longer to fill the lake and flow south.

With Gustav, the eye passed just to the west, creating a surge into NO from the ocean, which is a more immediate effect. The rain itself will not be as much of a worry as the initial surge itself.

This does not mean they are in the clear by any means - the loose barge and any number of things could easily cause problems with the levee system, but the biggest concern is in these earlier hours.

Hope that helps!


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