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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 329 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 329 (Idalia) Major: 329 (Idalia)

News Talkback >> 2008 Forecast Lounge

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Storm Tracker

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Models Bear Watching or Just Sleeping Bears?
      #85230 - Mon Oct 06 2008 07:14 AM

Well, shaking off cobwebs here , I cannot help but feel like I am waking from a long slumber after a short "off season", or waking up for the waning moments of the 4th quarter of a very long football game. With little relative activity in the Atlantic basin over the past few weeks, after a busy August, the question now is "what remains for the Atlantic tropical season"?

Pick the model of your choice, but certainly nothing is imminent. Most models not too exhuberent about near tem development, but it is interesting how GFS wants to hang on to beleiving that the Cape Verde Season is not over. Looking east, the GFS want to develop a nice tight system and in about 72 hrs, perhaps bring it over to around 45W. Interesting how the EURO hardly sees this feature, but the somewhat more conservative UK model picks it up, just the same as GFS. On a different note, the MM5 model wants to bring up some sort of sloopy system up into the west/central Caribbean in about 118 hours, and lastly, even the Euro even thinking of some low purculating up in the W. Caribbean in the longer range of 216-240 hrs.

Wait and watch........

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Re: Models Bear Watching or Just Sleeping Bears? [Re: weathernet]
      #85237 - Mon Oct 06 2008 09:18 PM

Models have been a little strange. I'd wait a little longer and see how they do over the next 24 hours.

The upper level low steals the show when watching. Haven't a lot of confidence in the CV system, More curious on the one that forms closer in..


thanks.. as always, bears watching...


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