As October approaches the end, activity in the tropics has dropped off quite a bit, and will likely remain that way for the remainder of the season. However we'll still watch for any changes and bring them up if something happens.
During this part of the year you only really look in the Western Caribbean for Development, and sometimes (but not usually) the Gulf. The peak of the season has come and gone, Ike was the hurricane to remember this year. Fay, the Tropical Storm many of us in Florida will remember.
...OFFSHORE THE EAST
COAST...A CYCLONE IS EXPECTED TO OCCLUDE AND MOVE SLOWLY NORTHEAST
FROM THE BAHAMAS INTO THE WESTERN ATLANTIC SHIPPING LANES
REMAINING BLOCKED BY A POSITIVE ANOMALY/RIDGE MOVING ACROSS
EASTERN CANADA. CMC CYCLONE PHASE SPACE DIAGRAMS INDICATE THERE IS
THE POSSIBILITY OF SUBTROPICAL CYCLOGENESIS WITH THIS SYSTEM.
LATEST MORNING 00Z ENS MEANS AND 06ZGFS CONT TO FOLLOW PRIOR
GUIDANCE RUNS. GFS HAS REMAINED CONSISTENT WITH ITS WRN ATLC
COASTAL CYCLOGENSIS AND TRACK CLOSEST TO THE SRN SEABOARD AND IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE GREAT LAKES REGION DEEP STORM LATE NEXT
WEEK. IT HAS HOWEVER ACCELERATED AN EPAC SYSTEM INTO B.C. AHEAD OF
PRIOR GUIDANCE AND ENS MEANS AT DAY 7 FRI.
...OFFSHORE GALE LOOKING MORE LIKELY OFF THE SRN SEABOARD AS LOW
PRESSURE DEVELOPS OFF THE BAHAMAS AND MOVES NORTH AND THEN NEWD.
PREFER KEEPING RAIN ACROSS NERN FL AND THE IMMEDIATE SERN COAST
FROM GA TO SERN VA..POSSIBLY NEWD ALONG THE DELMARVA TUES-WED.
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