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Another likely quiet week in the Atlantic Basin, and likely will remain quiet until the first week of August.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 16 (Beryl) , Major: 329 (Idalia) Florida - Any: 329 (Idalia) Major: 329 (Idalia)

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Loc: Beautiful Honolulu Hawaii
Tropical Storm LANA Bucks the Shear - Skirting South of Hawaii
      #85802 - Sun Aug 02 2009 09:51 AM

Just when it looked like Lana was about to be decapitated, with an exposed low level circulation and deep convection being shoved off into the NE quadrant, it now appears that Lana is simply refusing to bite the dust, despite the presence of significant vertical wind shear.

In the past 6 hours or so, explosive thunderstorms are slowly overspeading the LLC once again and Lana may not be winding down quite a fast as it's forecast. It sure is making a strong bid to hold on a little longer, considering current convective trends.

Passive Microwave Image of Lana at 2 AM, Hawaii time, August 2nd.

Note you can see the spiraling, showery low clouds (not thunderstorms) as lite blue streaks against a darker blue background, while the deep thunderstorms show up as bright red 'echos' and can be see trying to once again overspread the center of the low level circulation, allow the storm to at least maintain it's current intensity at 50 mph with gusts to 60 mph.

But, since it's embedded in deep layer easterlies, with a building subtropical ridge to it's north, it's quite likely that tropical storm Lana will just keep on truckin' towards the west, passing well south of the main Islands.

Which is just great, 'cause we *really* don't need to contend with a storm right now. I was hoping for a weakening into a tropical depression, veering NW and dumping drenching rains over the Big Island. They could *really* use some rains, big time. Alas! That is not to be the case. Johnston Atoll may see some heavy rains in a day or two, as they are SW of the main islands and in Lana's future path.

However, it looks like the cirrus debris clouds from the outflow channel will be surging up over the islands today, possibly making for an increasingly overcast day, as Lana lumbers by well to our south.

And since we're now officially in the grips of a moderate El-Nino event, with warmer waters than normal in both the Eastern and Central Pacific Oceans, I surmise we'll be seeing a lot more storm activity here in the CenPac, well into late fall. Historically, we are quite susceptible to late-season storms roaring up from the SW, especially during El-Nino years. Hurricane I'wa, which roared up directly over Kaua'i in '82 as a Cat 1 is a good example of this.

Edited by CoconutCandy (Sun Aug 02 2009 02:51 PM)

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