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MikeCAdministrator
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Erika Likely to Dissipate over the next Several Days
      #86738 - Tue Sep 01 2009 05:47 PM

11:00 EDT Update 2 September 2009
Erika remains weak at 11, it's still moving relatively slowly toward the west, toward the northern Leeward Islands.

With strong shear approaching, the hurricane center is suggesting that Erika may weaken further and even dissipate. Their track forecast is very uncertain, however. Erika will be one to watch, but it's likely to remain weak.


6:45 EDT Update 2 September 2009
Erika has relocated a bit south and more to the west overnight, still moving quite slowly at 5MPH to the west, this has brought up Tropical Storm Warnings in the prior watch areas, but nothing new yet for the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico.

Erika actually got a bit more disorganized overnight, but seems to be holding now at around 50mph. It's still trying to find a good center, and pressures still remain relatively high. It's intensity forecast is more complex than the track forecast, there is not a really solid thought on it.



The forecast track is a very uncertain move to the west and northwest eventually toward east of the Bahamas. Many models have shifted west overnight, but the model spread north to south is much more varied than prior storms this season. Therefore those across the Bahamas and southeast will want to monitor it over the week. Because of the slow forward motion it could take a while.

Right now I would not focus on any one model, all of them are a bit suspect right now past 2 or 3 days.


Original Update
Tropical storm Erika has formed out of a wave east of the Leeward islands in the Caribbean, formerly known as Invest 94L.



Because of the forward motion, tropical storm watches are now up for St. Maarten, Antigua, Barbuda, St. Kitts, Nevis, and Anguilla.

The forecast track takes it along the norther edge of the islands gradually turning more northward and places it east of the Bahamas by the weekend. Beyond that it is difficult to say, but it is currently most likely to stay offshore, with a possible southeastern US impact being slightly less probable. Florida likely will see no direct impact if it gains strength early. The confidence overall in that is fairly low...

What could change that? If the system remains somewhat sheared, and disjointed (lower to mid level) then it could move further west, if it gains strength and organization the prevailing steering patterns will likely move it more north away from land.

In short the Northeast Caribbean, Turks, Caicos, Bahamas, and the Southeast US (Including Florida) will want to keep checking in on Erika through the week.

Currently, Erika still has some shear to deal with at the mid levels, which will likely keep it from strengthening quickly. The upper levels however, are doing quite well (thus the fanning appearance).



Outside of this, another wave off Africa has <30% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours, and we'll watch that. The upper level feature currently east of the Bahamas is still not likely to develop.

Martinique Radar
Flhurricane Recording of Martinique Radar/Erika Approach

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Erika Event Related Links


float6latest.gif stormplotthumb_6.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=6 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Erika
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Erika


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Erika (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Erika (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Erika

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Erika
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Erika -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #86742 - Tue Sep 01 2009 06:25 PM

Erika is having some impressive bursts of new convection this evening, I'm wondering how long that will continue tonight.

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WeatherNut
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #86746 - Tue Sep 01 2009 06:55 PM

If previous couple of evenings are any indication...could be a while

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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #86747 - Tue Sep 01 2009 06:56 PM

Mike I would 86 the comment on Florida will likely see no impact... for 1 its too far off (144hrs +) and also the ridge can build in alittle more. Probably best would be north of Hispaniola 4-5days out..... anyways.. just a thought!

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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: scottsvb]
      #86750 - Tue Sep 01 2009 07:43 PM

An impressive burst of convection just recently. If she can resist the upcoming shear and remain cohesive but very weak, I would say a more western track is not out of the question at all.

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Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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OrlandoDan
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #86752 - Tue Sep 01 2009 07:56 PM

Also interesting that the Floater loops only put out hourly updates starting at 1815 with the most recent at 2115 UTC. It makes for a sonewhat jerky progression of this substnatial burst of convection.

--------------------
Keith (1988), Charley (2004), Frances (2004) , Jeanne (2004), Fay (2008), Mathew (2016), Irma (2017), Dorian (2019)

Personal Weather Station: https://www.wunderground.com/dashboard/pws/KFLLONGW67


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: OrlandoDan]
      #86754 - Tue Sep 01 2009 08:13 PM

I clarified the main post a bit. I reread it and it seemed to lean too much toward an all clear sounding for the US, which is a bit premature right now.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #86755 - Tue Sep 01 2009 08:27 PM

Recon at last check... 25kft heading west, back to Saint Croix... they did make a last pass threw the center... before heading west.

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 00:17Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 305)
Mission Purpose: Investigate second suspect area (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 1
Observation Number: 16
A. Time of Center Fix: 1st day of the month at 23:59:00Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 17°29'N 57°10'W (17.4833N 57.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 310 miles (499 km) to the E (85°) from Saint John's, Antigua and Barbuda.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,479m (4,852ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 50kts (~ 57.5mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 8 nautical miles (9 statute miles) to the NNE/NE (33°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 112° at 47kts (From the ESE at ~ 54.1mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the NNE (18°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 1004mb (29.65 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,523m (4,997ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 23°C (73°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,524m (5,000ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 15°C (59°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile
Remarks Section:
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph) in the northwest quadrant at 21:54:00Z


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 01 2009 08:29 PM)


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craigm
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: scottsvb]
      #86756 - Tue Sep 01 2009 08:51 PM

One thing I am noticing about this particular storm is the lack of consensus from the models as compared with what we saw with Ana, Bill and Danny. GFDL and its partner HWRF intensify Erika too much in 30 to 40 knot shear area north of the leewards, although that may relax, then heading into the persistent weakness created by our TUTT environment east of Florida. Tropical suite has her diving into the southern bahamas. UKMET and the Navy bring her right in between the two. However they all have High pressure (1024 mb) building at mid lattitudes in the eastern CONUS out about 90 hrs out. Now the ridge in the Atlantic has a 1024 anchor but it is still further east than usual this year. Which personally I feel is one of the effects of an el nino year. This ridge is projected to build westward and close the gap -- MAYBE. Thats why they call it forecasting. Erika doesn't seem to be struggling too much right now. Just checked SSD -- amazing images for a tropical Storm!

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #86757 - Tue Sep 01 2009 09:01 PM

I've put this up for the approach of the storm:
Flhurricane Recording of Martinique Radar/Erika Approach

As far as the satellite presentation for a Tropical Storm:



Says a lot.


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #86761 - Tue Sep 01 2009 09:34 PM Attachment (691 downloads)

per above post.. i overlayed the same rainbow image onto google eath... the width of the storms on Erika from its expansion of the impressive covection from this evening went to about 400 miles north to south and 400 miles west to east... **surface center is still on the western side of covection... but getting closer to deep convection...*** in the posted Vortex data earlier... i noted the temp difference between to center fixes at flight level... 73 F at 5kft is pretty good... temp between inside and outside center was about 5 degress difference... in the last pass it went to about 10 F difference... at 5kft...

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Tue Sep 01 2009 09:35 PM)


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k___g
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: craigm]
      #86762 - Tue Sep 01 2009 09:40 PM

I doubt the models have had time to acurately guestimate the future intensity or path of Erika. Let's give it another two model runs and then focus on the NHC track. I've learned over my years of tracking these storms that the NHC has come a long way in accuracy.

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craigm
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: k___g]
      #86763 - Tue Sep 01 2009 10:10 PM

Your preachin to the choir kg. I have long been an advocate of the NHC track and accuracy and defended it accordingly against wishcasters. I am just commenting on the disparity with the models for this storm at this early stage as compared to earlier storms this season. My Mantra in posts over the years has always been to trust the cone at least three days out. This probably should have been a PM. , but thought I should clarify my post in light of the confusion.

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Weather hobbyist


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LoisCane
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: craigm]
      #86765 - Tue Sep 01 2009 10:37 PM

Glad you did Craig, sometimes continuity is good.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t2/flash-ft.html

Stationary and a lot going on in that storm. A lot depends on timing I think and so far this season there hasn't been that wide a spread on models. Very interesting scenarios.

Thank you for sharing!

Bobbi

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: LoisCane]
      #86766 - Tue Sep 01 2009 10:48 PM

Winds up just a bit

...SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...17.5N 57.6W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...60 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WEST-NORTHWEST OR 300 DEGREES AT 8 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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hogrunr
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #86769 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:32 PM

Little confused on the NHC's wording. First in the 11pm update, they say it is still meandering and would start moving at 8mph WNW at some point. Then at the end they say it IS moving at 8 mph WNW, but yet looking at the satellite with the lat and long lines turned on, it still seems like a due westward motion.

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scottsvb
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: hogrunr]
      #86770 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:37 PM

you cant tell on sat est this time of night on a direct movement.... its probably moving WNW as reported by recon..but slowly!

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hogrunr
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: scottsvb]
      #86771 - Tue Sep 01 2009 11:55 PM

makes sense for visible sat...but would assume that IR sat would still be fairly accurate, but mostly just meant wasn't sure which side of the equation the NHC was taking at the moment.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: hogrunr]
      #86774 - Wed Sep 02 2009 02:24 AM

this clearly shows that Erika is closer to islands now... which also show this storm is not stacking vertically... shear and appears the surface ridge is not allowing the storm to stack up... recon currently in storm shows the center has moved west... new burts of convection on the NE side... recon flew threw it... but now signs of a surface feature...

Erika is showing up on radar now... will a new center form? Right now my thinking is prolly not.

http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?69

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Wed Sep 02 2009 02:30 AM)


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docrod
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Re: Tropical Storm Erika [Re: MikeC]
      #86775 - Wed Sep 02 2009 04:10 AM

Quote:

I clarified the main post a bit. I reread it and it seemed to lean too much toward an all clear sounding for the US, which is a bit premature right now.




Forecasting stalled out storms is so difficult. ...well for SFLa, keep watching. take care


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