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Invest 97L has dropped to 30% chance of development over the next 5 days. Watching as it rapidly moves west over the Atlantic.
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 330 (Nicholas) , Major: 346 (Ida) Florida - Any: 1400 (Michael) Major: 1400 (Michael)
 


Archives 2000s >> 2009 Forecast Lounge

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MikeCAdministrator
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Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go?
      #86739 - Tue Sep 01 2009 05:49 PM

This is the Lounge for Erika, where do you think it will go? How strong will it be? Why? Is it a gut feeling or is there some reasoning behind it? Let us know.


My thoughts Erika will head more westward in the track and stay relatively weak, but may grow stronger toward the end. I just don't know if and where it may hit, though.


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berrywr
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: MikeC]
      #86740 - Tue Sep 01 2009 06:09 PM

Wow, you really want me to guess, I'm leaning on an extratropical system about day 5; maybe day 6 if the models and shear forecast verify.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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B.C.Francis
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: MikeC]
      #86741 - Tue Sep 01 2009 06:18 PM

Lets say Erika does move more on a W NW path and moves north of Puerto Rico late in the week with out much strenghning, what would bend it on a more NW track from there on, what I`m I to look for? Or what would keep it moving on WNW and go around Florida and then bend NW ? I`m I to see some nice waves Sunday? or some wind ? or both or more ? here in Central Florida ?

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dstanley
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: B.C.Francis]
      #86744 - Tue Sep 01 2009 06:35 PM

Patrick AFB here...

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: dstanley]
      #86748 - Tue Sep 01 2009 07:04 PM

Most all agree that if Erica stays a weak TS it will move more west and may pose more of a threat to Florida.Given the shear that is in her path that is a pretty good bet.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #86753 - Tue Sep 01 2009 08:09 PM

GFDL and HRWF models have shifted westward, bringing the impact chances on the southeast up a bit. I can't say in good faith that the recurve scenario is going to happen this time around.

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gatorman
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: MikeC]
      #86758 - Tue Sep 01 2009 09:16 PM

hey, anyone looked at it in the past 6hr loop? Erika just seemed to double in size in the past 2-3 images? is this due to less UL winds or possibly warmer waters? just wondering, also looks like a jog to the west???

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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: gatorman]
      #86772 - Wed Sep 02 2009 12:18 AM

Quote:

hey, anyone looked at it in the past 6hr loop? Erika just seemed to double in size in the past 2-3 images? is this due to less UL winds or possibly warmer waters? just wondering, also looks like a jog to the west???




Looking at the unenhanced IR, it seems that the blow-off from westerly shear has lessened a bit. This might explain the expansion in size, might it? That big convection explosion also seems to have produced an explosion of the outer higher level clouds that make it look much larger. It HAS expanded. Keep us in Central Fla posted on this sucker. Odd that I should be hoping the storm STRENGTHENS so that it has a better chance to be pulled northward and away from us. Higher shear ahead (although the tendancy seems to show it decreasing) may keep me from getting my wish. Odd year so far overall, though so I shouldn't be surprised!!

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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weathernet
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #86773 - Wed Sep 02 2009 02:02 AM

Well, simply to toss my 2 Cents in, i'll venture to say that I think US landfall at or south of the Carolina Outer Banks seem like a significant possibility. Very hard to contradict NHC track reasoning, except that subtle differences in forceast could affect longer term motion. For one, all Global forecasts indicate a westward migration of the 500mb flow. The latest GFS 0Z 500mb forecast even indicate a weak reastablished east/west ridge around 25N and 75W, in time. How established or migratory will these rising heights be is a guess right now. Main concern is that I believe Erika's motion could be even slower and more eratic than currently forecast. If this occurs, might later term steering tend to cause late cycle model forecasts to bend back a bit more westward?

As for increasing shear in about 48 hours, I don't buy it. I do see how forecast maps indicate a westerly Caribbean feed which then seems to merge into an overall anticyclonic flow over the Western Atlantic, however it would appear to me that part of the increased gradient itself, might be some degree of a reflection of the very outflow of what might be a well established upper high over the storm itself. At this stage, I would disagree with intensity forecast, and believe Erika will attain Hurricane intensity in 12-24 hours.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: weathernet]
      #86778 - Wed Sep 02 2009 08:16 AM

The model roundup this morning is interesting, the GFS takes it through the Bahamas on the 7th, and into South Florida (Broward
or Dade ish) the following day, the GFDL is more westward, missing Puerto Rico to the north and then just north of the Turks into the Central Bahamas. HRWF is further north and away from the Bahamas.

Since the storm has moved a bit more west than expected, it may force Tropical Storm Watches and Warnings for Puerto Rico.

It likely will be an interesting next few days to watch. The spread is a bit much. It's also possible Erika falls apart, but with that much convection to the east, I wouldn't count on it. It's similar to Chris from 3 years ago. But Chris "split apart" after it got west of the Leewards.


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: MikeC]
      #86780 - Wed Sep 02 2009 08:33 AM

i agree with you mike, i dont see that recurve happening the way it usually does. this storm is preety far south and to the west. and all it keeps doing is moving west. i think a se florida storm or a gulf storm.

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Ed in Va
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86787 - Wed Sep 02 2009 09:15 AM

Evan,

It can happen, but history shows most likely out to sea or into the Gulf...none of the comparable storms have hit FL http://www.wunderground.com/tropical/tracking/at200906_climo.html#a_topad

Correction: One did hit the panhandle.

--------------------
Survived Carol and Edna '54 in Maine. Guess this kind of dates me!

Edited by Ed in Va (Wed Sep 02 2009 09:17 AM)


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berrywr
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: berrywr]
      #86789 - Wed Sep 02 2009 09:51 AM

I had to pick one of two scenarios; the 1st is not going to verify, so let me just say my new guess; no where fast; Erika is going to be with us meandering for the foreseeable future.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Ed in Va]
      #86791 - Wed Sep 02 2009 09:52 AM

yeah i hear you. but nobody ever predicted jeanne to do a 180

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ftlaudbob
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86793 - Wed Sep 02 2009 10:42 AM

I am confused with the NHC's forecast track.They say it is now moving due west,yet the next point on their track has it going NW.

Anyway my guess at this point would have to be SE Florida or the gulf.

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: ftlaudbob]
      #86798 - Wed Sep 02 2009 11:38 AM

yeah bob, they keep there predictions up there until they see otherwise. they will shift the track furter to the west later today, and display the nw turn.

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Robert
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86804 - Wed Sep 02 2009 01:52 PM

Just like Jeanne im waiting on the future models packets what if ericka did loop? It dosent have to hit florida but just a cyclonic loop. it appears there is a small weakneess and the tail of a tough with another over the central united states what if ericka just gets dragged north a bit then loops back into some part of the US or just back out to sea

Edited by Robert (Wed Sep 02 2009 01:55 PM)


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Robert]
      #86833 - Thu Sep 03 2009 11:00 AM

This also seems to be one of those cases where the NHC keeps showing the storm being forcast to move NW over the next 24 hours, but the storm hasn't gotten the message yet. It still seems to be moving mostly dead west at this point. I know it is hard to know where any LLC is moving under that cloud of convection, but the whole convective cloud still appears to be moving primarily west. Trying to track any of the many vortices that keep spinning out from under the thing is also a measure of futility. I am beginning to believe that most of it may pass SOUTH of Puerto Rico. It has been south and west of the 'average' guidance all along, so I am thinking this trend may put it on a collision course more with Hispanola than P.R. I also don't see it disippating until the convection begins to spread out and not be so tightly clumped. This could happen if it goes over Hispanola. Going to be an interesting 48 hours.

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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ftlaudbob
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Lamar-Plant City]
      #86835 - Thu Sep 03 2009 11:51 AM

Man vs Machine

Most models bring Erika up to hurricane strength in a few days.

The people at the NHC say she will just fissile out.

Which one will be right?

--------------------

Survived:
Gloria,Bob,Katrina,Wilma and a bunch of tropical storms.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Erika Lounge. Where do you think it Will go? [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #86839 - Thu Sep 03 2009 12:32 PM

Latest GFS run keeps Erika weak until it gets into the Bahamas and then strengthens it quite a bit, although it's no longer showing it heading to Florida. It may be too far north/east in the initialization, but its showing signs that it still will remain worth watching well into next week.

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