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MikeCAdministrator
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Ida a Hurricane Again Moving Northward
      #87155 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:04 AM

11:15PM EST Update 7 November 2009
A bouy near the center of Ida recorded 74mph sustained winds which puts Ida back at hurricane strength again. Recon is on the way overnight.



1PM EST Update 7 November 2009
Hurricane watch is still up for the eastern part Yucatan peninsula, including Cancun, since Ida is close to (70MPH, 5MPH Shy of) being a hurricane again.

Flhurricane Recorded Cancun Radar Animation

It is moving mostly north (with a hint of west) at 9mph, and has a window of opportunity to strengthen between now and Sunday evening. After it enters the Gulf it will likely start to lose Tropical characteristics and transform into a Extra Tropical storm, enhancing the pressure gradient differences and causing a breezy week ahead. A lot depends on forward motion, whether or not it stalls in the gulf, and not so much focused on the center if it becomes extratropical.

It may be a windy rainy week for north and eastern Gulf residents.

However, the situation is complex and could change, those along the North and Eastern Gulf will want to keep close tabs on the goings on of Ida over the next several days.


Original Update
Tropical Storm Ida is back, and it is heading generally north with a hint of a westward motion very late, it appears that it will enter the Gulf of Mexico around Monday and then things get interesting. Id has enough current support to get a chance to slowly strengthen. Once it approaches the Gulf conditions aren't great, but It likely will interact with a few other systems and become extra tropical in the Gulf of Mexico.



The water in the west Caribbean is plenty warm enough, so it has a small window to get stronger, but it also has the further it goes north, more storm killing shear to deal with (Similar to many other systems this season), but interesting even with the shear the environment around it will keep it from falling apart. It is gaining some strength, but it's about 50/50 it will make it all the way back to hurricane strength. Hurricane Hunter aircraft are on their way out there now to help determine what Ida is doing, it is possible they could find a stronger system than indicated at the earlier advisory.



extratropical Ida may be similar---but not quite the same-- as a nor-easter, and have a very large wind field (enhanced by a strong pressure gradient), which will likely make it windy east and north of the system, and because of the shape of the Gulf may cause some minor to moderate coastal flooding mid to late next week along the Gulf coastal areas.

That is the most likely threat from Ida, that it will likely be a ugly week in Florida outside, winds will gradually pick up this week. The pressure gradient even without Ida is high enough to make it breezy outside, when Ida gets closer it will likely pick up more, and the worst days will probably be Wednesday-Friday. Because it won't be purely tropical then the winds around there may likely be between 30 and 40 mph along the north and eastern coastal Gulf coast, and probably won't make it too far inland.

Since Ida will likely be transitioning to extra tropical in the Gulf, the winds will cover a much larger area than typical of Tropical Storms.

Things could change, so we'll watch.

Cancun Radar
Flhurricane Recorded Cancun Radar Animation
Ida Storm Spotlight
StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

Ida Event Related Links


float11latest.gif stormplotthumb_11.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page

[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2009&storm=11 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Ida
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Ida


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Ida (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Ida (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Ida

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Ida
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Ida -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

StormPulse Map


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rgd
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87157 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:09 AM

The GFS...ECMWF...and
HWRF all move the cyclone quickly northward and show it reaching
the northern Gulf Coast in about 3 days as it becomes an
extratropical cyclone. The remainder of the guidance has trended
northward...but turns the system generally eastward before reaching
the northern Gulf Coast. For now...the official forecast is
between these two scenarios...but has been adjusted northward to
account for the latest trends.


If you look at the 7am runs they tend to take her now more towards the big bend area.Only 1 of the bigger models take her south before landfall but each run they have been trending her more and more north with lanfall in the north florida area.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: rgd]
      #87158 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:13 AM

With an extra tropical cyclone exactly where it landfalls really doesn't matter north and east will get the worst of it. Don't forget that it may very well stall out in the Gulf or curve back southward before the big bend. I think the NHC's long range cone is pretty good.

Long range models generally are in the lounge, though and will get moved there.


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87162 - Sat Nov 07 2009 10:36 AM

Recon is on it's way, but Ida's appearance now gives it a really good shot at become a hurricane again sometime today.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87164 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:08 AM

Recon has reached Ida, it shouldn't be too much longer until we have an idea where it's really at strength wise.

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87165 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:34 AM

Judging from early recon, looks like windspeed is around 60 knots (70MPH), still shy of hurricane, but we don't have a vortex fix yet which will be the best indicator.

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rgd
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87166 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:38 AM

The forecast for Ida
Clipped.. pasting full articles is not allowed (out of respect for Jeff) Quotes from relevant portions are allowed. See Jeff Masters (also linked on the main page) - mike c.

Masters thinks it will not even be a TS and he just posted this.Not a long range forecast or a forecast but im sure you will remove it.

(To be correct, Dr Masters stated that it would probably not be a 45mph TS but that it probably would be a 45mph extratropical cyclone. If you are sure that we are going to remove something, then don't post it in the first place.)

Edited by Ed Dunham (Sat Nov 07 2009 12:11 PM)


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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87167 - Sat Nov 07 2009 11:43 AM

Pressure is down to roughly 989mb from recon, but still looks around 55-60knots at the surface (65-70MPH)

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MikeCAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87168 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:14 PM

Added cancun Radar Animation recording for Ida:

Flhurricane Recorded Cancun Radar Animation


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Ed DunhamAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: MikeC]
      #87169 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:17 PM

Recon Vortex had a central pressure of 990mb and a surface wind of 56 knots. Location was 18.4N 84.0W at 07/1636Z.
ED


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Rasvar
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Ed Dunham]
      #87171 - Sat Nov 07 2009 12:38 PM

That recon is good to hear. I was a little worried that they may find her a little stronger. I wish the NHC forecaster luck in figuring out this complex forecast over the next couple of days.

--------------------
Jim


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danielwAdministrator
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Rasvar]
      #87172 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:10 PM

P. AF306 0211A IDA OB 06
MAX FL WIND 65 KT NE QUAD 16:28:20Z
MAX OUTBOUND FL WIND 67 KT SW QUAD 16:41:10Z
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN

Spiral Band Pattern is not really a welcome sign. Along with the high thin cirrus on top of the storm.
They may need to turn on the "Fasten Your Seat Belt" sign.

All of this backed up by the latest Discussion, first paragraph.

TROPICAL STORM IDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
1000 AM EST SAT NOV 07 2009

RECENT MICROWAVE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT THE STRUCTURE OF
IDA HAS CONTINUED TO IMPROVE THIS MORNING...WITH A COUPLE OF
HOOKING BANDS NEAR THE CENTER. VISIBLE IMAGERY SHOWS AN EXPANDING
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST FEATURE AND NO OBVIOUS SIGNS OF SIGNIFICANT
SHEAR. THE LATEST Dvorak INTENSITY ESTIMATES ARE 45 KT FROM BOTH
AGENCIES...BUT GIVEN THE INCREASE IN ORGANIZATION SINCE THAT TIME
THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN RAISED TO 50 KT. AN AIR FORCE
RESERVE HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT IS CURRENTLY EN ROUTE TO
INVESTIGATE THE STORM.



TROPICAL STORM IDA INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY NUMBER 13A
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL112009
100 PM EST SAT NOV 07 2009 (edited~danielw)

...HURRICANE HUNTER AIRCRAFT FIND IDA STRONGER...

A HURRICANE WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA OF
MEXICO FROM TULUM TO CABO CATOCHE. A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT
HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR GRAND CAYMAN ISLAND.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE YUCATAN PENINSULA
OF MEXICO FROM PUNTA ALLEN NORTHWARD TO SAN FELIPE. A TROPICAL
STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
WITHIN THE WARNING AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 24 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR THE CUBAN PROVINCE OF
PINAR DEL RIO. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE ISLE
OF YOUTH.

REPORTS FROM AN AIR FORCE RESERVE AIRCRAFT INDICATE THAT THE MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 70 MPH...110 KM/HR...WITH
HIGHER GUSTS. IDA COULD BECOME A HURRICANE LATER TODAY OR
TONIGHT BUT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AFTER IDA ENTERS THE GULF OF
MEXICO.

TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 120 MILES...165 KM
MAINLY NORTH FROM THE CENTER.

THE LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY RECONNAISSANCE
AIRCRAFT WAS 990 MB...29.23 INCHES.

...SUMMARY OF 100 PM EST INFORMATION...
LOCATION...18.5N 84.1W
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...70 MPH
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NORTH OR 360 DEGREES AT 9 MPH
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...990 MB


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Rasvar]
      #87173 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:12 PM

AF306 first pass:

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 17:05Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 06
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 16:36:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°25'N 84°01'W (18.4167N 84.0167W)
B. Center Fix Location: 263 miles (424 km) to the SE (136°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,355m (4,446ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 56kts (~ 64.4mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 21 nautical miles (24 statute miles) to the NE/ENE (56°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 144° at 65kts (From the SE at ~ 74.8mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles) to the NE (55°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 990mb (29.23 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,525m (5,003ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 25°C (77°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,521m (4,990ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 19°C (66°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 65kts (~ 74.8mph) in the northeast quadrant at 16:28:20Z
Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:41:10Z
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Nov 07 2009 01:15 PM)


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weathernet
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Rasvar]
      #87174 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:19 PM

Watching the day unfold, and with special interest in the various satelite resolutions, I could not help take notice of some appearant center to the north and east of the advisory points. Of course at first glance I was sure this feature was a "sucker hole", just some space in between forming banding features. However as the pics keep updating, I am becoming that much more inclined to wonder if in fact we are seeing some evidence of possible duel centers ( one soon to be absorbed by the more dominant one ), or a dislocated mid level center on one hand, with a lower level surface center on the other. Even looking at every resolution available, all I can come up with is greater evidence of this, rather than not. For the moment, just too hard for me to see distinct evidence of a rotation point under the massive bursting.

Nearly all models are seeing the "mean" steering to be towards the NNW. Given the southwesterly shear, one could make the case for the mid to upper level circulation to potentially zip off more to the north and east. Yet what appear to be some secondary center at the moment is most obviously not a mid to upper level circulation, simply obvious by all the convection shifting more north and westward. That and of course looking at the outflow....., there certainly does not seem to be any current impact by shear given the expanding Cirrus sheild in nearly all directions.

Finally, just to make the present appearance all the more odd, is that recon is appearantly finding surface winds, thus justifying a fix point at ( or just west of ) 84W. Will just wait and watch.....


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Hawkeyewx
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: weathernet]
      #87175 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:36 PM

Tropical cyclones organized enough to have a pressure of 990 mb do not have dual surface centers. What appears to be happening is some sw shear and dry air are slightly disrupting the core. If you look closely, it is almost like there is a supercell continuously firing on the west edge of the center, but the deep convection fades as it attempts to rotate around the east side. The apparent hole east/ne of the center is just a dry pocket where deep convection is lacking. There should not be anything more than slow intensification as long as the deep convection struggles to wrap around.

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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: weathernet]
      #87177 - Sat Nov 07 2009 01:40 PM

recon in center 2nd time...around 1830z... looks like center moved DUE north... maybe just slight west... pressure near 988mb? will seen when vortex report in 10 mins... highest winds i've seen inbound on flight level.. From From 215° at 48 knots (From the SW at ~ 55.2 mph)... SE Quad... less then 20 miles from center.. flying 5k ft flight level

**note based on 12Z fix/data from today... storm is right of short term forecasted path by about 30 miles***

**UPDATE** GPS Dropsonde... has a 991mb in center drop at surface?

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Nov 07 2009 02:01 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87178 - Sat Nov 07 2009 02:04 PM

Drop from Center... 20 mins ago

Part B: Data For Significant Levels...

Significant Temperature And Relative Humidity Levels...
Level Air Temperature Dew Point
991mb (Surface) 27.6°C (81.7°F) 25.6°C (78.1°F)
904mb 21.8°C (71.2°F) 21.5°C (70.7°F)
850mb 20.0°C (68.0°F) 17.6°C (63.7°F)
843mb 19.4°C (66.9°F) 16.4°C (61.5°F)

Significant Wind Levels...
Level Wind Direction Wind Speed
991mb (Surface) Unavailable
990mb 55° (from the NE) 23 knots (26 mph)
881mb 15° (from the NNE) 67 knots (77 mph)
843mb 30° (from the NNE) 12 knots (14 mph)
The highest wind observed in the "Significant Wind Levels" section is noted in bold.


its not as warm as i thought it would be in the area the storm is in... the air temps and dew point are not as high as i thought they would be......

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



Edited by Storm Hunter (Sat Nov 07 2009 02:06 PM)


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Storm Hunter
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87179 - Sat Nov 07 2009 02:35 PM

last pass.. appears recon heading home... is this a sign of shear?

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 7th day of the month at 19:19Z
Aircraft: Air Force Aircraft (Last 3 digits of the tail number are 306)
Storm Number & Year: 11L in 2009
Storm Name: Ida (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 2
Observation Number: 10
A. Time of Center Fix: 7th day of the month at 18:32:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 18°52'N 84°10'W (18.8667N 84.1667W)
B. Center Fix Location: 234 miles (377 km) to the SE (132°) from Cancún, Quintana Roo, México.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 1,349m (4,426ft) at 850mb
D. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind: 48kts (~ 55.2mph)
E. Location of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind: 29 nautical miles (33 statute miles) to the SE (145°) of center fix
F. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 238° at 63kts (From the WSW at ~ 72.5mph)
G. Location of Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SSE (148°) of center fix
H. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 991mb (29.26 inHg)
I. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 17°C (63°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,526m (5,007ft)
J. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 20°C (68°F) at a pressure alt. of 1,520m (4,987ft)
K. Dewpoint Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): 17°C (63°F)
K. Sea Surface Temp (collected at same location as temp inside eye): Not Available
L. Eye Character: Not Available
M. Eye Shape: Not Available
N. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
N. Fix Level: 850mb
O. Navigation Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
O. Meteorological Accuracy: 4 nautical miles
Remarks Section - Remarks That Were Decoded...
Maximum Flight Level Wind: 67kts (~ 77.1mph) in the southwest quadrant at 16:41:10Z
Maximum Flight Level Temp: 25°C (77°F) which was observed 19 nautical miles (22 statute miles) to the SSE (148°) from the flight level center
Remarks Section - Additional Remarks...
SPIRAL BAND PATTERN
ACTUAL CENTER APPROX 4NM SE


--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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berrywr
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #87180 - Sat Nov 07 2009 02:55 PM

It is extremely important with Ida to pay particularly close attention to the terminology as we go forward. What makes an extratropical system different from a tropical and subtropical storm and the overall synoptic situation in relationship to the synoptic wind field and the wind fields with Ida as they interact tropically and extratropically. For the moment it is simply too complicated as to the number of variables that are and will be in play during the next few days. Personally, I can't remember the last time a tropical system underwent extratropical transition in the Gulf of Mexico and was bypassed by an incoming shortwave and frontal system. We all know what happens to old frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico; but it is November; not June.

--------------------
Sincerely,

Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"


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Lamar-Plant City
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Re: Ida Again Tropical Storm Moving Toward Gulf [Re: berrywr]
      #87182 - Sat Nov 07 2009 03:47 PM

Quote:

It is extremely important with Ida to pay particularly close attention to the terminology as we go forward. What makes an extratropical system different from a tropical and subtropical storm and the overall synoptic situation in relationship to the synoptic wind field and the wind fields with Ida as they interact tropically and extratropically. For the moment it is simply too complicated as to the number of variables that are and will be in play during the next few days. Personally, I can't remember the last time a tropical system underwent extratropical transition in the Gulf of Mexico and was bypassed by an incoming shortwave and frontal system. We all know what happens to old frontal boundaries in the Gulf of Mexico; but it is November; not June.




You would HOPE the models would take the time of year into consideration.....I agree with you. I don't see how this system could hop over a front as if it wasn't there. This thing is headed northeast at some point and I don't see it turning around back to the south. Something is very odd about the models right now. (could it be that there are so few precedents for this type of system in early November?)

--------------------
If you don't like the weather, wait 5 minutes...
2017 Season Prediction: 16/7/3


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