cieldumort
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Remnant lower to mid-level circulation associated with former eastern Pacific Tropical Storm Agatha has redeveloped this morning in the western Caribbean, and is currently experiencing a noteworthy convective blowup over the anomalously warm waters there.
Conditions appear somewhat favorable for further development. ie: wind shear is low and there is outflow over the system, water temps are very supportive, surface pressures are low, etc.
It is not clear at this time if a definitive surface circulation exists within this convective complex, but if not, one could easily form over the course of the next 48 hours.
For future motion, throw out any models you may be looking at. It is much too early, and besides, they are still working off runs that show "Agatha" stuck over central America. A stall, or a trend toward the north and/or northeast is conceivable in the short term considering the steering currents at play early this week.
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Edited by cieldumort (Tue Jun 01 2010 05:55 PM)
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Ed Dunham
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The last position on the remnants of Agatha was 15.2N 91.8W at 30/06Z. Current satellite position estimate would place the mid-level reflection near 17.4N 86.6W at 31/13Z, or a movement to the east northeast (060 degrees). While the current CIMSS low-level steering currents would support a motion to the north, what is left of this system is not in the low levels (at least not yet). Moderate to strong westerly windshear exists immediately to the north of this feature and this shear is not expected to relax for quite a few days since it is associated with a southern branch of the jetstream (SFSU analysis).
The system has a short window of about 24 hours (perhaps less) for additional development - after that timeframe the shear should eliminate any chance for this system to evolve.
ED
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Storm Hunter
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Having trouble figuring out why the left over Agatha is not classified as a TD in the western Carb. Very strong blow up of convection this morning and if it holds... could be a rapid intensification setup for this area... SST's in area are plenty warm for the system to turn into a tropical system. Should be an interesting day... see if storms can hold and a center get organized... movement would be slow and nne?
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/flt/t1/flash-vis.html
would expect the surface winds to start moving around to the NE later today.
http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42056
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/sju/?n=observations05
(Post moved to the ongoing discussion in the appropriate Forum.)
Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon May 31 2010 03:43 PM)
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Storm Hunter
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See now analyzes a 1010MB low in the area. Much shear over the GOM to the north.... but covection keeps popping.
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Edited by Storm Hunter (Mon May 31 2010 09:50 PM)
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cieldumort
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Think that broadly-speaking there really was a fairly persistent mlc associated with the ongoing convection, but that Agatha just passed into the Caribbean too severely decoupled to take advantage of the limited window to pull itself back together. x-Agatha's mlc/convective complex kept gaining forward speed, while whatever pathetic swirl was left of the LLC could be seen still languishing off the coast - just to the east of northern Belize in the far western Caribbean, continuing to spin down, and long-ago stripped bare of any convection.
It may be interesting to keep an eye on the bit of trofiness left in its place, but any complete regeneration at this point is a super long shot, would probably be more related to other events taking place, and as such this disturbance would no longer be considered "Agatha" - and again, a real, real long shot, at that.
It's been curious to watch, tho - only rarely get to see east pac features cross into the Caribbean.
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MichaelA
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Yes, a very active convective blowup this morning which indicates adequate upper level divergence/ mid to low level convergence. If (that's a big if) this remnant system regenerates, it looks like a NE or ENE path would result.
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Michael
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cieldumort
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Impressive.
That explosion of convection over the remnant low of x-Agatha has just been on a tear today. I guess my remarks last night should have been more guarded considering the fact that we have not just any old trof still sitting out there, but the remnant low of what was until just very recently a named tropical storm - that is now sitting in one of the more conducive parts of the Atlantic basin at present (most other regions are even less favorable right now) - during a season many believe is going to become hyperactive.
With all that, I'll go ahead and re-up my guestimate of development in the northwestern Carib up from "super long shot" to 30% chance (over the next 48 hours) of cooking a numbered system.
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cieldumort
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Just a note that I edited the title of this thread to reflect that x-Agatha has just been tagged as Invest 91L, and some hopefully decent model runs will start coming out in short order.
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Epicyear2010
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There is currently 30-40 knot wind shear in the southern gulf. And the center of circulation looks displaced to the west with convection firing up and down to the east. Im not liking this system's chances of developing. But some activity is better than none at this time of year right? 
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cieldumort
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Shear over the northwestern Caribbean looks to be running 15 to 30 knots in the upper-levels, and practically non-existent to maybe 25 knots in the mid-levels. That level of shear, while relatively "high," is really not all that challenging - 91L is currently basically stationary, and the shear over it is not exactly un-supportive .. and should the upper-level high get better established atop 91L, then that shear would ease up, and it is conceivable that 91L could undergo a bit of rapid improvement.
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MichaelA
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The aerial coverage seems to have decreased throughout the day, but the upper level outflow is quite symmetrical with a vent on the NE. Looks like it is drifting directly toward Grand Cayman in the later sat pics/loop. I still can't see a low level circulation, though.
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Michael
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cieldumort
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There was a remnant LLC still present Monday, and earlier Tuesday, just east of Belize, but I have not been able to discern one tonight. Probably just a broad area of slightly lower pressure is all that is left now, I think.
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