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MikeCAdministrator
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Loc: Orlando, FL
TS Bonnie Makes Landfall Over Extreme South Florida
      #88293 - Thu Jul 22 2010 07:22 AM

11AM EDT UPDATE - 23 July 2010
At 11AM, Bonnie was located just offshore due east of Homestead, Florida, and was moving to the west northwest to northwest. Landfall should occur around Noon EDT. Fowey Rocks reported winds of 46mph gusting to 52mph so Tropical Storm status is confirmed. NHC forecasts a continued rapid motion to the west northwest. Bonnie remains very disorganized and could become an open wave in the Gulf of Mexico.

Active convection has persisted in a stationary area south of the Dominican Republic near 16N 72W. The area is currently under northerly shear, but the shear is expected to decrease quite a bit by Saturday evening. Just another area to watch.
ED

7:00 AM EDT Update 23 July 2010
Bonnie is approaching Florida this morning, moving extremely fast for a storm at 18mph, and will be in and out fairly quick. It has remained weak overnight, and is barely a tropical storm.

Landfall appears to be between the middle/upper Keys and Florida City, with all of the convection/rain to the north of the center.

Rain will be seen in most of south Florida, and parts of Central Florida (more rain toward west Central Florida than east).

Once in the Gulf those in the Central to Eastern Gulf of Mexico will want to watch the progress of the system, but conditions appear to be hostile there as well which will likely keep Bonnie a Tropical Storm.

Dual Radar recording of Bonnie Approach to south Florida (Flhurricane recording)

98L has moved inland and is no longer being tracked.


Bonnie Event Related Links


float3latest.gif stormplotthumb_3.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=3 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Bonnie
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Bonnie


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Bonnie (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Bonnie (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Bonnie

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Bonnie
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Bonnie -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View

StormCarib Reports from the Caribbean Islands

Caribbean Weather Observations

Barbados Brohav Weather Fax

Full Caribbean Radar Composite

Caribbean Broadcast Corporation (TV/Radio from Antilles)

San Juan, PR NWS Page

Various Caribbean Radio Stations

DR1 Dominican Republic Hurricanes

East Florida Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static) South to North:

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Miami, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Melbourne, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Jacksonville, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)


Caribbean/South East Coast Satellite Imagery


SFWMD Radar Loop of South Florida with storm Track


SFWMD Full Florida Radar Loop with Storm Track


Area Forecast Discussions: FLorida Keys - Miami/South Florida - Melbourne/East Central Florida - Jacksonville/Northeast Florida -

Northeast Gulf Links Southeast Composite Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tampa Bay, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Key West, FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Mobile, AL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Tallahassee FL Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Northwest Florida Radar Radar Loop (Latest Static)

Gulf of Mexico Satellite Imagery

SFWMD Full Florida Radar (Includes east LA, MS,AL) Loop with Storm Track

Area Forecast Discussions: New Orleans - Mississippi/Alabama/Pensacola - Panhandle/Tallahassee - Tampa/West Central Florida

9:20 PM EDT Update 22 July 2010
Tropical Storm Bonnie is located just south of Great Exuma Island in the Bahamas, and is holding with a small core just as a minimal Tropical Storm at present.

There is an interesting interaction going on with the system an upper level low to moving toward the west, along with a ridge building in from the northwest. It's a bit of a race between getting pulled up further north and being kicked further west by the ridge building. As the upper level low moves away from it, more effects from the ridge to the northeast will be felt. So in short it has some chance to move a bit more northward, and then be kicked more northwest later. The core of the system will likely be kept small, so if there are any surprises it would likely be a result of that.

The center has relocated north of earlier projections and with these changes may landfall tomorrow in the south Florida mainland, likely in the upper keys and south of Miami. Most likely, Folks in Miami will experience wind and rain of low to mid Tropical Storm force winds, and north of there will get some wind and rain, but the storm will be moving rather rapidly across the state.
Beyond that, it looks like eastern Louisiana or Mississippi may have to deal with the storm in the Gulf, but at this far out with the extremely complex interactions between the upper level low, ridge, and this system it has a very low confidence.

Overnight, because of the lack of visible satellite, following the apparent blowup in convection may not be indicative of where the center is. It could even lose it entirely overnight.

If you are in the Keys or south Florida I highly recommend to check up on the storm in the morning for anything that changes. Most likely you can expect a nasty, but entirely bearable day, and it appears that this should not be very Tornadic.




98L Event Related Links


float4latest.gif stormplotthumb_4.gif

SFWMD Model Plot (Animated Model Plot) SFWMD Hurricane Page


[https://flhurricane.com/floatanimator.php?year=2010&storm=4 Flhurricane Satellite Floater Animation of Invest 98
GOES Floater
Animated Skeetobite Model Plot of Invest 98


Clark Evans Track Model Plot of Invest 98 (Animated!) Model Plots in Google Earth - In Google Maps
Clark Evans Intensity Model Plot of Invest 98 (Animated!)

Clark Evans Track Plot of Invest 98

Other Model Charts from Clark

Clark Evans Top 10 Analog Storms for Invest 98
More model runs on from RAL/Jonathan Vigh's page
NRL Info on Invest 98 -- RAMMB Info
COD Atlantic Satellite View



6:20 PM EDT Update 22 July 2010
Data from Aircraft reconnaissance has found enough winds to support upgrading TD#3 to Tropical Storm Bonnie. The second named storm of the 2010 Atlantic Hurricane Season.



It is currently moving northwest at 14MPH, and the position is a bit further north than the 5PM Position, it is possible watches/warnings may be extended northward along the Florida Coastline later tonight.



11:00 AM EDT Update 22 July 2010
Tropical Depression 3 has formed, forecast track clips Key West midday tomorrow and enters the Gulf, nearing Western Louisiana later. Intensity is kept low for now.

A Tropical Storm Watch Has Been Issued for the East Coast of Florida
From North of Golden Beach to Jupiter Inlet Including Lake
Okeechobee.

Summary of Watches and Warnings in Effect...

A Tropical Storm Warning is in Effect For...
* Central and Northwestern Bahamas
* for the Florida East Coast from Golden Beach Southward Including
The Entire Florida Keys and Florida Bay...and Along the West Coast
Of Florida Northward to Bonita Beach

8:45 AM EDT Update 22 July 2010
Tropical Depression 3 Forms in the Bahamas.

Advisories on the system (as a depression or possible Tropical Storm) begin at 11AM, and watches/warnings will be issued for the Bahamas and South Florida at 11. Movement is generally west northwest.

Details to come closer to 11AM EDT.

There is also a 50% chance for the wave in the bay of campeche to become a depression as well, and may before the day is over. It would make landfall tomorrow night or Saturday in Northeastern Mexico.



Original Update
This morning, the wave in the southeast Bahamas (97L) has survived, but is still being affected by, shear from an upper level low/TUTT to the northwest of the system. However, it is looking much better this morning and now has a 70% chance to develop into a depression or storm. In fact is is very likely the National Hurricane Center will begin advisories at 11.

In fact, it could become a depression or storm at any time today. Recon is scheduled to check it out this afternoon. Those in south Florida and the Keys will want to monitor it for any changes.

The low remained stronger than expected earlier in the week, and now is likely to keep it on the weaker side through today. There still is a 40% chance of development for this system, but it has little chance to go beyond a tropical depression or low end tropical storm even into the Gulf. Most all of the convection of the wave is on the east side, instead of near the axis of the wave. The system looks better this morning, and has a very good chance to develop into a depression or storm today.

Most likely it will remain weak and move near Cuba's north coast, and to the south of Florida, bringing some rain. If it does develop into a depression or storm, it will likely be closer to South Florida.

Once in the gulf the motion depends on how strong the storm gets. Central Gulf through the entire part of Louisiana is the highest chance right now. If the system stay weak throughout the gulf, it begins to enter Texas into the equation. If the system gains more strength than anticipated chances go up for further east. If it develops before nearing Florida, chances go up for the central Gulf.


98L is fighting time over water to develop, it has 40% chance of development before making landfall, probably bringing more rain to northeastern Mexico, that's already seen two systems this year.




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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88294 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:13 AM

Recon is scheduled to go out to the system this afternoon, chances are now 70% and I updated the main page article to reflect it.

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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88295 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:14 AM

"Best Track" is referring to 97L as a depression, which means we may see the Tropical Storm Watches/Warnings go up today.

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M.A.
Weather Guru


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MikeC]
      #88296 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:39 AM

Looks like the NHC just upgraded 97 to 100%.

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Hugh
Senior Storm Chaser


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: M.A.]
      #88297 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:48 AM

Quote:

Looks like the NHC just upgraded 97 to 100%.




Yet, they haven't decided what the winds are. The STWO says it will either be a depression OR a storm.
I guess part of that depends upon whether it strengthens in the next 2 hours before advisories are issued, of course. Given the conservative nature of the NHC these days, I'd bet that they'll called it TD Three until recon confirms that Bonnie has formed. It's really splitting hairs because tropical storm watches/warnings will be required for the Bahamas and southern Florida regardless of whether it's TD Three or TS Bonnie at this point.

Now, models will begin to mean something...

--------------------
Hugh

Eloise (1975) - Elena and several other near misses (1985) - Erin & Opal (1995) - Ivan (2004)


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Storm Hunter
Veteran Storm Chaser


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Loc: Panama City Beach, Fl.
Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88298 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:54 AM

I supect they will issues based on suface data from bahamas for TS if they can get TS force winds... If not they may stick with TD and wait until this afternoon to upgrade... regardless.. expect watches and warnings for the South Florida and the keys. Vis imagery shows a very small compact coc that is taking a lot of shear this morning, but one has formed near 21.5n and 74W

--------------------
www.Stormhunter7.com ***see my flight into Hurricane Ike ***
Wx Data: KFLPANAM23 / CW8771
2012== 23/10/9/5 sys/strms/hurr/majh



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MikeCAdministrator
Admin


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Storm Hunter]
      #88299 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:56 AM

My guess is the call will be depression at 11, and Tropical Storm when recon gets out there.

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WesnWylie
Weather Guru


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88300 - Thu Jul 22 2010 08:57 AM Attachment (434 downloads)

Does the future Bonnie look to be moving due west in the latest frames of the Visible Satellites? I have a feeling that the upper-low to its north will keep it moving more westerly for at least the next few days.

http://weather.cod.edu/analysis/satrad.regional.html


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Hugh]
      #88301 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:10 AM

Given the still somewhat shallow system, I would assume to defer to the mid level BAM or possibly the deep layer BAM model. If convection can be maintained with a good CDO throughout the day, it would not at all be surprising for us to see a TS with 50/60mph traversing just south of the Fl. Keys. Conditions in the short term just don't seem all that condusive for rapid development, but then again we are dealing with a small inner core system so perhaps not out of the realm of possibility of approaching minimal hurricane intensity ( just unlikely though ).

Would be something if this upper low were to pinch off and really rapidly dive S.W. ahead of this system. Things would get interesting for sure. Given the smallish size of the LLC and fragile state, I believe the proximity between the shear axis and the system itself might prevent any rapid establishment of a larger upper anticyclone to occur over the depression ( Bonnie?).

Looking at the GFS this a.m, really looks to "ramp up" 98L before moving inland. Am guessing we will have a pair of "weak siblings" - Bonnie & Colin, on our hands by tonight. Finally and somewhat off topic, anyone happen to see what the 6Z GFS is concocting late term, out in the far E. Atlantic? Of course, this is very very long range.


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doug
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: weathernet]
      #88304 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:27 AM

What I see occurring here is the ULL has moved west south west at a much more rapid rate than the wave, now TD, has moved WNW. It seems it is still in relatively the same location it was on Tuesday. Consequently the TD is now on the east side, as opposed to the south, of the circulation around the ULL and is beneath an envelope of anticyclonic flow. The direct westerly shear is not as much of an influence and the midlevel circulation around the ULL is now more SW'ly on the TD's west side. While this is impacting the extent of development of convection there, it is also enhancing evacuation of the convection that is developing on the TD's west side. I also see ample evacuation on the northern and eastern sides due to the anticyclone aloft, in the wake of the ULL.
Obviously, I think there is potential for this to develop. I also wonder if the movement of the ULL more WSW'ly will impacrt the tract of the TD by forcing it to jog more northerly (up and around) the ULL? I really don't have a handle on those dynamics, however.

--------------------
doug


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weathernet
Storm Tracker


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88305 - Thu Jul 22 2010 09:32 AM

That's a nice link for satellite but the loop is so short, it really is hard to establish mean motion. One could make the argument that the COC is moving more or less westward. Looking at NASA's site ( http://weather.msfc.nasa.gov/GOES/ ) , and then clicking on the 1KM and choosing a longer animation, my guess is a general motion of 280/290.

Taking a longer look at 97L, the COC is really borderline exposed on the western edge of the convection. I think its nearly impossible to ignore the obvious circulation and higher winds are no doubt occuring in the N.E. quadrant of the system. The fact that there has been limited history with this circulation, its small and tenuous convection, and close proximity to the Upper Low would lead me to think it might be premature to think we have a T.S. already. If no real improvement to the convection were to occur but recon does confirm sustained borderline winds to the north or northeast of the center ( even if well removed ), than NHC might upgrade then - if no other reason but to play it safe.

Am guessing a Special Advisory even before 11:00am officially upgrading to a Tropical Depression, and then perhaps an upgrade if called for, by ( or before ) 2:00pm.


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crpeavley
Weather Watcher


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: doug]
      #88307 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:06 AM

It would be interesting if you could elaborate on your theory of a "northerly jog..."

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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: crpeavley]
      #88308 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:20 AM

last couple of loops looks like it is trying to tighten itself up. it seems to be better organized. as far as the movement, i see the slightest jog to the north. but as mike had said earlier, the 11am update will tell us a lot. i would not rely heavily on the spaghetti plots as of right now. sadly, this is what we deal with when we have july storms.

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MichaelA
Weather Analyst


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: weathernet]
      #88309 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:22 AM

There is also the dry air that remains near the COC and extends westward. The moisture does look like it is trying to wrap around the system, though. Not to sensationalize nor to instill panic, just to emphasize that every storm needs to be closely watched, both Katrina and Rita formed in this area in 2005. Let's hope that this storm never reaches those intensities.

--------------------
Michael

WU PWS


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Evan Johnson
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: MichaelA]
      #88310 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:46 AM

man is it me or is there a pretty clear COC developing at 77N 22W?

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CaneTrackerInSoFl
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: Evan Johnson]
      #88311 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:54 AM

The COC appears to be at around 75 W and 22 N.

Going to be tracking this one long range, away from home.

--------------------
Andrew 1992, Irene 1999, Katrina 2005, Wilma 2005



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doug
Weather Analyst


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: crpeavley]
      #88312 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:56 AM

The "jog" north I mentioned is that this wave is clearly interacting with the ULL. The ULL is digging toward the West generally with a SW'lycomponent. The low level moisture behind it may be pulled NW'ly in its wake. Totally non-scientific and only an observation. As I said I clearly don't have a handle on the dynamic of that, and it may no occur. It was more of a question really.
Now what is scientific is that the exposed LLC on the west of the system may be competing with another center more to the north, and a center re-location may occur. This is an observation of some MET's who are analyzing the satellite data real time. If that occurs then the track will shift right. Lets wait and see what the 11 am package brings.

--------------------
doug


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mwillis
Weather Hobbyist


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: doug]
      #88313 - Thu Jul 22 2010 10:59 AM

NRL has updated, 2 invests and one depression
http://www.nrlmry.navy.mil/TC.html


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WesnWylie
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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: mwillis]
      #88314 - Thu Jul 22 2010 11:05 AM

The NHC has gone really conservative with the strength of Tropical Depression 3. They say a plane is heading to check this system out, though. As I figured they have chosen a track further to the west. Anywhere from Biloxi to Corpus Christi is at risk. This is not good for the oil spill region, as they are already pulling out of there.

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Evan Johnson
Weather Guru


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Re: Two Waves Being Watched [Re: WesnWylie]
      #88315 - Thu Jul 22 2010 11:12 AM

im guessing when recon comes back this will be bonnie. imo. storms lookin preety healthy. the warnings were no surprise to me.

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