I think the NHC will highlight this area in the upcoming 1:00 p.m. CDT outlook. The upper-level winds should steer this disturbance toward the northwest rather than west, so if it were to organize which is still uncertain it would affect parts of Texas.
-------------------- 2011 Season Forecast: 16/09/04
2011 Systems: 10/01/01
It is an inverted trough AKA easterly wave. The axis is onshore; however all the action with easterly waves are generally behind the axis. It is reflected aloft up to 500 mbs but no higher; a ridge dominates the entire area at 300 mbs which is centered at that level about 150 miles SE of Brownsville with a small shortwave moving west to east currently over central Texas moving east. As you see on satellite there is excellent divergence aloft and one might think there's something down there with outflow aloft.
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