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Arlene expected to be short-lived as rapid weakening is forecast over the weekend
Days since last H. Landfall - US: Any 209 (Nicole) , Major: 252 (Ian) Florida - Any: 209 (Nicole) Major: 252 (Ian)

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Storm Tracker

Reged: Sat
Posts: 296
Loc: Elsewhere
Long Range Pattern
      #89989 - Thu Oct 28 2010 07:49 PM

O.K., I just had to take a peak, I mean if this were August and we were looking at 3 invests, not to mention the unbelievable wave about to come off Africa ( ok, so I'm kidding about Africa....); that and the fact that a potentially developing storm is quickly approaching the Windward Islands. Well, just to keep things real......... nothing really approaches the Windwards from the east all that quickly - in late Oct./Nov! Nonetheless, and for perhaps the last time for this Hurricane Season, I thought that it might just be prudent to take a look, just in case.......

Well, back to reality here. As much as the 240 hr. GFS shows a strong wedge of ridging appears to be nudged into the Bahamas, Dominican Republic and E. Cuba, the upper Westerlies have certainly appeared to have retreated to the north. That said, one massive sized cutoff low is well south under the flow and nearly all the way to the N. Gulf coast. Though lifting out and ridging to appear to be building in, the Euro show a different scenario. The Euro 240 hr. from 12Z today depicts quite a deep negatively tilted trough from New England SSW all the way to the N. Gulf Coast. No doubt strong SW flow aloft ahead of this pattern, unless any storm in the Caribbean were so far to the south and practically drifting along. This too however does lift out. Ultimate conclusion? Same story, different day. Timing is everything, and how often do we really have an accurate alliance of long term modeling? Add to the pot the reality that it is nearly November and seldom do things move fast in the tropics ( if ever ) during November.

So, no "pearls of wisdom" here. I've got nothin'.

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Weather Analyst

Reged: Fri
Posts: 387
Loc: Opelika, AL
Re: Long Range Pattern [Re: weathernet]
      #90019 - Fri Oct 29 2010 11:26 PM

Obvious I have a little time to kill this evening.....personally I will look at the extended ranges if other forecasters whose expertise is looking at these extended ranges and have continuity; that is day to day and run to run continuity and are eyeballing and discussing it on their end. If you're doing this on your own and you have expertise in this area, by all means! Realistically anything from zero to 120 hours is very, very good. Beyond 120 hours you have to figure out where all the players are now, where they're going to be and at 240 hours that's plain hard. As an analyst I look at everything and that takes time; usually a solid 3 to 4 hours from a cold turkey start. If I'm watching a system that is expected to develop then continuity comes more quickly and all we mets are doing is comparing what "now" was "then" and today what "now" is "now". Confused? Don't be, it's a headache for us too.


Bill Berry

"Survived Trigonometry and Calculus I"

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