No, generally speaking you've got it right. I'm guessing that the thinking is that by the time that Emily leaves Hispaniola, even a weaker system would still be influenced enough by the trough to pull it northward, although my inclination with a weaker system would be to add a little more of a westerly component to that northerly motion.
ED
The GFS now takes Emily further to the east. Of far more interest is that the movement in the past 6 hours has been just about due west at 12 knots. Water vapor indicates about 9 degrees of separation between the base of the trough and the center of the tropical storm - and that is still quite a bit. The trough may dig a little further south, but not much. The NHC forecast places the center of Emily onshore the Dominican Republic in about 19 hours - which is going to be a bit of a stretch if the western motion continues tonight.
ED
Quote:
The GFS now takes Emily further to the east. Of far more interest is that the movement in the past 6 hours has been just about due west at 12 knots. Water vapor indicates about 9 degrees of separation between the base of the trough and the center of the tropical storm - and that is still quite a bit. The trough may dig a little further south, but not much. The NHC forecast places the center of Emily onshore the Dominican Republic in about 19 hours - which is going to be a bit of a stretch if the western motion continues tonight.
ED
0z GFS is slightly west and slower of the 18Z or even though 12ZGFS.
Be interesting how far west this gets. I still say the main factor will be where it
makes landfall in Hispaniola.. if it can get past 71.5W on the Haiti side.. then
it will be further west in days 3-4 and might make 80W. Short term movement
over the next 24hrs will be key.
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